First Regular Session Seventy-fifth General Assembly STATE OF COLORADO REVISED This Version Includes All Amendments Adopted on Second Reading in the Second House LLS NO. 25-0866.01 Pierce Lively x2059 SENATE BILL 25-180 Senate Committees House Committees Appropriations Appropriations A BILL FOR AN ACT C ONCERNING THE METHOD OF CALCULATING STATE POPULATION101 GROWTH FOR PURPOSES OF CALCULATING STATE FISCAL YEAR102 SPENDING PURSUANT TO SECTION 20 OF ARTICLE X OF THE103 STATE CONSTITUTION.104 Bill Summary (Note: This summary applies to this bill as introduced and does not reflect any amendments that may be subsequently adopted. If this bill passes third reading in the house of introduction, a bill summary that applies to the reengrossed version of this bill will be available at http://leg.colorado.gov/ .) Joint Budget Committee. Section 20 of article X of the state constitution (TABOR) requires the maximum annual percentage change in state fiscal year spending to equal inflation plus the percentage change HOUSE 2nd Reading Unamended March 13, 2025 SENATE 3rd Reading Unamended March 4, 2025 SENATE 2nd Reading Unamended March 3, 2025 SENATE SPONSORSHIP Kirkmeyer and Amabile, Bridges, Ball, Coleman, Cutter, Gonzales J., Jodeh, Kipp, Michaelson Jenet, Pelton B., Snyder, Winter F. HOUSE SPONSORSHIP Taggart and Sirota, Bird Shading denotes HOUSE amendment. Double underlining denotes SENATE amendment. Capital letters or bold & italic numbers indicate new material to be added to existing law. Dashes through the words or numbers indicate deletions from existing law. in state population in the prior calendar year adjusted for revenue changes approved by voters. Although TABOR does not specify how the state shall determine the percentage change in state population (population growth), the TABOR implementing statutes do. For years in which there is not a decennial census, the TABOR implementing statutes require the state to calculate population growth by determining the percentage change between: ! The federal census bureau's estimate of state population (census estimate) for the previous calendar year, as of December in the current calendar year; and ! The census estimate for the current calendar year, as of December in the current calendar year. The current method for calculating population growth can lead to either double-counting or under-counting population changes in census estimates. If the federal census bureau revises a census estimate upward for a given year: ! The calculated population growth between the given year and the immediately preceding year will be understated, since the population growth between those years is based on an inaccurately low census estimate for the given year; and ! The understated population growth between the given year and the immediately preceding year is not corrected or carried forward when calculating population growth for subsequent years, as those calculations are based on the revised census estimate for the given year. Put differently, if the federal census bureau revises a census estimate upward for a given year, population growth will be understated and the fiscal year spending limit will be lower. The opposite is true if the federal census bureau revises a census estimate downward. In either case, under the current method for calculating population growth, population growth would be measured inaccurately. The bill adjusts the method of calculating population growth. Under the bill, population growth is calculated by determining the percentage change between: ! The census estimate, as of December in the previous calendar year, for the previous calendar year; and ! The census estimate, as of December in the current calendar year, for the current calendar year. This approach prevents double-counting or under-counting population changes as a result of revised census estimates and results in a more accurate measurement of population growth. The bill also makes conforming amendments. 180-2- Be it enacted by the General Assembly of the State of Colorado:1 SECTION 1. In Colorado Revised Statutes, 24-77-103, amend2 (2)(b)(I), (2)(b)(II), (2)(b)(II.5)(B), and (2)(b)(II.5)(C); and add3 (2)(a)(IV) and (2)(b)(I.5) as follows:4 24-77-103. Limitation on state fiscal year spending - legislative5 declaration - report. (2) (a) (IV) T HE GENERAL ASSEMBLY FURTHER6 FINDS AND DECLARES THAT:7 (A) F OR THE PURPOSE OF DETERMINING THE MAXIMUM8 PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN STATE FISCAL YEAR SPENDING FOR ANY GIVEN9 FISCAL YEAR, SECTION 20 (7)(a) OF ARTICLE X OF THE STATE10 CONSTITUTION REQUIRES THE STATE TO ANNUALLY DETERMINE THE11 CHANGE IN STATE POPULATION FROM ONE CALENDAR YEAR TO THE NEXT12 WITH THE USE OF ANNUAL FEDERAL CENSUS BUREAU STATE POPULATION13 ESTIMATES;14 (B) T HE APPROACH FOR DETERMINING THE C HANGE IN STATE15 POPULATION FOR STATE FISCAL YEARS COMMENCING BEFORE JULY 1,16 2024, RESULTED IN BOTH DOUBLE-COUNTING AND UNDER-COUNTING OF17 POPULATION AS A RESULT OF REVISED FEDERAL CENSUS BUREAU STATE18 POPULATION ESTIMATES;19 (C) D OUBLE-COUNTING POPULATION FOR PURPOSES OF20 DETERMINING THE CHANGE IN STATE POPULATION RESULTS IN AN21 INCREASED LIMIT ON STATE FISCAL YEAR SPENDING AND UNDER -COUNTING22 POPULATION FOR PURPOSES OF DETERMINING THE CHANGE IN STATE23 POPULATION RESULTS IN A REDUCED LIMIT ON STATE FISCAL YEAR24 SPENDING;25 (D) F ROM STATE FISCAL YEAR 2015-16 THROUGH STATE FISCAL26 YEAR 2024-25, EXCLUDING THE FISCAL YEAR IMPACTED BY THE27 180 -3- DECENNIAL CENSUS, AS A RESULT OF REVISED FEDERAL CENSUS BUREAU1 ESTIMATES OF STATE POPULATION , THERE WERE THREE FISCAL YEARS2 WITH SIGNIFICANT DOUBLE -COUNTING, TWO FISCAL YEARS WITH3 SIGNIFICANT UNDER-COUNTING, AND FOUR FISCAL YEARS WITH NEITHER4 SIGNIFICANT DOUBLE-COUNTING NOR UNDER-COUNTING;5 (E) S ECTION 20 (7)(a) OF ARTICLE X OF THE STATE CONSTITUTION6 DOES NOT SPECIFY HOW THE STATE SHALL ANNUALLY DETERMINE THE7 CHANGE IN STATE POPULATION BY ANNUAL FEDERAL CENSUS ESTIMATES ;8 (F) I N BOTH HOUSE BILL 02-1310 AND SENATE BILL 02-179,9 ENACTED IN 2002, THE GENERAL ASSEMBLY MODIFIED HOW THE CHANGE10 IN STATE POPULATION IS CALCULATED FOR PURPOSES OF SECTION 20 (7)(a)11 OF ARTICLE X OF THE STATE CONSTITUTION , AND THESE BILLS ARE12 PRESUMED TO BE CONSTITUTIONAL ; AND13 (G) T HEREFORE, IT IS WITHIN THE GENERAL ASSEMBLY'S PLENARY14 POWER AND CONSISTENT WITH SECTION 20 (7)(a) OF ARTICLE X OF THE15 STATE CONSTITUTION FOR THE GENERAL ASSEMBLY TO ENACT16 LEGISLATION THAT MODIFIES HOW POPULATION GROWTH IS CALCULATED17 FOR PURPOSES OF SECTION 20 (7)(a) OF ARTICLE X OF THE STATE18 CONSTITUTION TO MITIGATE BOTH POPULATION DOUBLE -COUNTING AND19 POPULATION UNDER-COUNTING.20 (b) (I) Except as otherwise provided in subparagraphs (II) and 21 (II.5) of this paragraph (b) SUBSECTIONS (2)(b)(II) AND (2)(b)(II.5) OF22 THIS SECTION, FOR STATE FISCAL YEARS COMMENCING BEFORE JULY 1,23 2024, the percentage change in state population for any given calendar24 year shall be IS the percentage change between the estimate of state25 population due to be issued by the United States bureau of census in26 December of such calendar year with a reference date of July 1 of the27 180 -4- same calendar year and the estimate of state population due to be issued1 by the United States bureau of census in December of the same calendar2 year with a reference date of July 1 of the immediately preceding calendar3 year.4 (I.5) F OR STATE FISCAL YEARS COMMENCING ON OR AFTER JULY5 1, 2024, THE PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN STATE POPULATION FOR ANY GIVEN6 CALENDAR YEAR IS THE PERCENTAGE CHANGE BETWEEN THE ESTIMATE OF7 STATE POPULATION ISSUED BY THE UNITED STATES BUREAU OF CENSUS IN8 D ECEMBER OF THE CALENDAR YEAR WITH A REFERENCE DATE OF JULY 19 OF THE SAME CALENDAR YEAR AND THE ESTIMATE OF STATE POPULATION10 ISSUED BY THE UNITED STATES BUREAU OF CENSUS IN DECEMBER OF THE11 IMMEDIATELY PRECEDING CALENDAR YEAR WITH A REFERENCE DATE OF12 J ULY 1 OF THE IMMEDIATELY PRECEDING CALENDAR YEAR .13 (II) Except as otherwise provided in subparagraph (II.5) of this 14 paragraph (b) SUBSECTION (2)(b)(II.5) OF THIS SECTION, for any calendar15 year for which an estimate of state population is not issued due to the16 federal census of the United States bureau of census, the percentage17 change in state population for such calendar year shall be IS the18 percentage change between the state population as reported in the federal19 census conducted by the United States bureau of census due in December20 of such calendar year and the estimate of state population due to be issued21 by the United States bureau of census in December of the same year22 IMMEDIATELY PRECEDING CALENDAR YEAR with a reference date of July23 1 of the immediately preceding calendar year.24 (II.5) (B) The difference between the percentage change in state25 population determined in accordance with subparagraph (II) of this26 paragraph (b) SUBSECTION (2)(b)(II) OF THIS SECTION and the reduced27 180 -5- percentage change in state population used to calculate the limitation on1 state fiscal year spending pursuant to sub-subparagraph (A) of this2 subparagraph (II.5) shall be SUBSECTION (2)(b)(II.5)(A) OF THIS SECTION3 IS carried forward as an adjustment of the percentage change in state4 population determined pursuant to subparagraph (I) of this paragraph (b)5 SUBSECTION (2)(b)(I) OR (2)(b)(I.5) OF THIS SECTION for a maximum6 period of nine fiscal years. If the amount of state fiscal year spending for7 the immediately subsequent fiscal year exceeds the limitation on state8 fiscal year spending for that fiscal year, the unused adjustment shall be IS9 added first to the percentage change in state population determined10 pursuant to subparagraph (I) of this paragraph (b) SUBSECTION (2)(b)(I)11 OR (2)(b)(I.5) OF THIS SECTION that is included in the percentage of the12 allowable increase in state fiscal year spending used in calculating the13 limitation on state fiscal year spending for that fiscal year to the greatest14 extent possible without causing the limitation on state fiscal year15 spending to exceed the actual amount of state fiscal year spending for that16 fiscal year.17 (C) Any remaining portion of the unused adjustment shall18 continue to be added, to the greatest extent possible, to the percentage19 change in state population determined pursuant to subparagraph (I) of this20 paragraph (b) SUBSECTION (2)(b)(I) OR (2)(b)(I.5) OF THIS SECTION that21 is included in the percentage of allowable increase in state fiscal year22 spending used in calculating the limitation on state fiscal year spending23 for subsequent fiscal years without causing the limitation on state fiscal24 year spending for a given fiscal year to exceed the actual amount of state25 fiscal year spending for that fiscal year.26 SECTION 2. Safety clause. The general assembly finds,27 180 -6- determines, and declares that this act is necessary for the immediate1 preservation of the public peace, health, or safety or for appropriations for2 the support and maintenance of the departments of the state and state3 institutions.4 180 -7-