OFFICE OF FISCAL ANALYSIS Legislative Office Building, Room 5200 Hartford, CT 06106 (860) 240-0200 http://www.cga.ct.gov/ofa sHB-5212 AN ACT CONCERNING EDUCATION FUNDING. Primary Analyst: DD 4/22/24 Contributing Analyst(s): Reviewer: JS OFA Fiscal Note State Impact: Agency Affected Fund-Effect FY 24 $ FY 25 $ FY 26 $ Education, Dept. GF - Cost 759,000 57.4 million Net 180.2 million Legislative Mgmt. GF - Cost - 84,275 84,275 State Comptroller - Fringe Benefits 1 GF - Cost - 34,763 34,763 Note: GF=General Fund Municipal Impact: Municipalities Effect FY 25 $ FY 26 $ Various Local and Regional School Districts Revenue Gain See Below See Below Various Municipalities Savings See Below See Below Explanation The bill, which overhauls funding for five major state education grants or programs, is anticipated to result in substantial costs beginning in FY 25. The bill's cost to the State Department of Education (SDE) is estimated to be $759,000 in FY 24, $57.4 million in FY 25, and $180.2 million (net of savings) in FY 26. The bill provides a small grant increase to vocational agriculture (Vo Ag) operators in FY 24, partially phases in the funding overhaul in FY 25, and fully implements the overhaul in FY 26. Costs in FY 26 and annually thereafter are minimally offset by a savings associated with the elimination of magnet school 1 The fringe benefit costs for most state employees are budgeted centrally in accounts administered by the Comptroller. The estimated active employee fringe benefit cost associated with most personnel changes is 41.25% of payroll in FY 25. 2024HB-05212-R000598-FN.DOCX Page 2 of 4 tuition assistance provided by SDE totaling approximately $8.4 million annually as follows: (1) $4.6 million for East Hartford and Manchester; and (2) $3.8 million for low-income families who send children to preschool programs operated by certain magnet schools. PA 23-204, the FY 24 and FY 25 budget, provided funding in FY 25 for grant increases to the programs affected by the bill. It is anticipated that this funding will likely cover the cost of the bill's partial phase-in in FY 25, along with the FY 25 current law increases to charter school operators and the Education Cost Sharing (ECS) grant. The bill also eliminates tuition to vocational agriculture and magnet school operators. This results in annual savings beginning in FY 26 to: (1) districts that pay tuition to vocational agriculture and magnet school operators that charge tuition; and (2) parents who pay tuition for preschool programs offered by certain magnet school operators. Under current law, tuition is capped beginning in FY 25 at 58% of FY 24 levels. The savings to districts from the tuition cap and elimination are anticipated to be approximately $41.2 million in FY 25 and $95.8 million in FY 26 (and annually thereafter). 2 The bill additionally provides for annual, inflation-based grant increases beginning in FY 27 to: (1) state charter schools; and (2) magnets operated by regional educational service centers (RESCs) and Goodwin University Magnet Schools. 3 RESC operators in the Sheff region receive an additional weight which is partially phased-down from FY 27 through FY 31, lowering those operators' gains from the inflation increases. The bill's estimated costs to the General Fund in FY 25 (due to the partial phase-in) and in FY 26 (due to the full phase-in) by program are 2 This analysis includes tuition savings of $1.3 million in FY 25 and $5.4 million in FY 26 associated with additional seats in these fiscal years per the 2022 Sheff settlement. It is possible some of this component of the savings will be experienced by parents of preschoolers attending certain magnet schools (instead of by districts). The tuition savings will grow in FY 27 and FY 28 as more seats are added. 3 The magnet schools run by RESCs and Goodwin University Magnet Schools are referred to as "RESC magnets" in this fiscal note, for simplicity. 2024HB-05212-R000598-FN.DOCX Page 3 of 4 shown below. Estimated Costs to the General Fund in FY 25 and FY 26, sHB 5212 by Program Program FY 25 FY 26 RESC Magnets 36.8 96.8 Board of Education (BOE) Magnets 13.5 32.5 Vocational Agriculture 7.1 16.9 Open Choice - 28.5 State Charter Schools - 13.9 Elimination of Tuition Assistance - (8.4) TOTAL PROGRAM COST 57.4 180.2 Notes: 1. Estimates use FY 24 data provided in February 2024. The BOE magnets, Open Choice and Vo Ag estimates use the ECS data for sending towns from the March 2024 version of the FY 25 ECS calculations. 2. Estimates include the impact of magnet seat increases (for RESC and BOE magnets, and Open Choice) as anticipated by the January 2022 Sheff settlement. Adjustments were made to some anticipated seat increases based on information from SDE. 3. Numbers do not sum due to rounding. The Open Choice and state charter schools grant increases are equivalent to the net gains to program operators. Most of the increased grant funding for magnet school and Vo Ag operators, particularly in FY 25, replaces lost tuition revenue. Exact impacts will vary among operators due to the structure of the funding overhaul. Nonpartisan staff cost. The bill results in an additional cost to the General Fund of approximately $119,038 ($84,275 in salary and $34,763 in fringe benefits) annually beginning in FY 25 associated with hiring one nonpartisan analyst within the Office of Legislative Management. This will maintain the nonpartisan staff's ability to model, upon request, potential changes to the programs affected by the bill. The bill's new grant structures substantially increase the amount of time needed to model any changes to programs affected by the bill. For example, due to the bill's new grant structures, every request affecting certain ECS components must also consider the impacts to several other grants. This work will be complex and cannot be done within available resources. 2024HB-05212-R000598-FN.DOCX Page 4 of 4 Numerous factors. The bill's fiscal impact in FY 25 and annually thereafter is subject to changes in many factors, including: (1) enrollment, including enrollment changes related to the Sheff settlement; (2) student characteristics; (3) the number of students sent from each town to any of the affected programs; (4) new or closed schools or programs (beyond those within the January 2022 Sheff settlement); and (5) inflation. The bill's grants to BOE magnets, Open Choice, and Vo Ag operators depend in large part on the student characteristics of the towns sending out-of-district students to the programs, which vary from year to year. While in a year the average change across towns is typically small, the change to the grant amount associated with students from any one town can be large (either lower or higher). Any such changes will result in different grant totals than projected above (impacting the anticipated General Fund appropriations) and affect grants to the towns, districts or RESCs operating the programs. In FY 25, used for this estimate, the grant amounts for these students ranged from $11,551 (students sent from New Canaan) to $15,856 (students sent from New London). The median town grant amount for FY 25 is $12,570, up $86 (0.7%) from $12,484 in FY 24. The Out Years The bill's projected annual costs to the General Fund (compared to current law) in FY 27 through FY 30 range from $197.5 million (FY 27) to $242.2 million (FY 30). Costs relative to current law will rise annually beyond FY 30 due to the inflation provision for state charter schools and RESC magnets. As discussed above, the fiscal impact of the bill depends on many factors and will vary, possibly markedly, from this estimate, and year to year.