LEGISLATIVE SERVICES AGENCY OFFICE OF FISCAL AND MANAGEMENT ANALYSIS FISCAL IMPACT STATEMENT LS 6984 NOTE PREPARED: Jan 1, 2025 BILL NUMBER: HB 1345 BILL AMENDED: SUBJECT: Income Tax Replacement. FIRST AUTHOR: Rep. Borders BILL STATUS: As Introduced FIRST SPONSOR: FUNDS AFFECTED:XGENERAL IMPACT: State & Local DEDICATED FEDERAL Summary of Legislation: The bill eliminates the state Adjusted Gross Income Tax by reducing the rate to zero. It provides that the reduction in revenue resulting from the elimination of the state Adjusted Gross Income Tax must be offset by adjustments to the state Gross Retail Tax. It provides that in calculating the Local Income Tax (LIT), which is imposed based on a local taxpayer's state adjusted gross income, the calculation of a taxpayer's state adjusted gross income for LIT purposes shall be calculated under the Adjusted Gross Income Tax provisions as if those provisions, and the most recent Adjusted Gross Income Tax rate before its elimination, were still in effect. Effective Date: July 1, 2025. Explanation of State Expenditures: Department of State Revenue (DOR): The DOR will incur additional expenses to revise tax forms, instructions, and software. The DOR’s current level of resources should be sufficient to implement the tax provisions outlined in the bill. With the elimination of the state Adjusted Gross Income Taxes, the bill will reduce the agency workload in the long term. [DOR will still process Individual Adjusted Gross Income Tax returns for the purposes of local income tax.] Explanation of State Revenues: Summary - The bill will replace the revenue generated by Individual Adjusted Gross Income Tax and Corporate Adjusted Gross Income Tax by imposing a higher Sales Tax rate or making other adjustments to the tax base that will replace the revenue loss from the repeal of the income taxes. The fiscal impact from the bill is indeterminable. The revenue from Individual Income Tax and Corporate Income Tax is deposited in the state General Fund. Revenue from the Sales Tax is deposited in the state General Fund and state dedicated funds. It is assumed that the Sales Tax rate will be adjusted to completely offset the revenue loss from the income taxes on the state General Fund. The bill will result in a fiscal impact to the extent that the Sales Tax rate and any other adjustments cannot exactly generate the same amount of revenue as the elimination of the Individual Income Tax and Corporate Income Tax. The fiscal impact could occur as a result of an estimation error in: (1) the income tax loss for a time period, and (2) the Sales Tax adjustments to offset the loss of income tax revenues HB 1345 1 for the period. The fiscal impact will begin in FY 2026. Additional Information - Individual Income Tax Revenue Loss: The bill sets the Individual Income Tax rate to 0% starting tax year 2026. The revenue loss from the repeal of Individual Income Tax will begin in FY 2026 (six months). It is estimated that the revenue loss from Individual Income Tax will be about $3.4 B in FY 2026 and $8.5 B in FY 2027. Corporate Adjusted Gross Income Tax Revenue Loss: The bill sets the Corporate Income Tax rate to 0% starting July 1, 2026. The revenue loss from the repeal of Corporate Income Tax will begin in FY 2027. The impact in FY 2027 will be about $1.2 B. The revenue loss from the repeal of these taxes will continue to grow in future years depending on the growth in the state economy. The revenue from Individual Income Taxes and Corporate Income Taxes is deposited in the state General Fund. Revenue Loss Offset from Sales Tax Adjustments: The Sales Tax is currently imposed at 7% of the gross retail income from taxable transactions. Sales Tax is deposited in the state General Fund and state dedicated funds. The provisions in the bill will require the Sales Tax rate to be adjusted to generate additional revenue to be deposited in the state General Fund. The adjustments to the rate must be made to completely offset the state General Fund loss from the repeal of income taxes. In FY 2024, the total Sales Tax collections were about $10.9 B, with $10.4 B deposited into the state General Fund. Explanation of Local Expenditures: Explanation of Local Revenues: Local Income Taxes: Results from empirical literature on elasticity show that a decrease in the Individual Income Tax rate would result in an increase in overall statewide taxable income. This would result in an increase in LIT revenues starting in CY 2026. Since the certification process for LIT revenues result in a lag of actual distributions of the revenues, the actual fiscal impact on LIT distributions will not occur until CY 2028. LIT revenues are estimated to increase by an indeterminable, but likely significant, amount. State Agencies Affected: Department of State Revenue. Local Agencies Affected: Local units. Information Sources: Revenue Forecast Technical Committee, December 2024 Revenue Forecast, https://www.in.gov/sba/budget-information/revenue-data/#tab-844794-1-Revenue_Forecasts; Long, James E. “The Impact of Marginal Tax Rates on Taxable Income: Evidence from State Income Tax Differentials.” Southern Economic Journal 65(4): 855. Bruce, Donald, John Deskins, and William Fox. (2005) On the Extent, Growth, and Efficiency Consequences of State Business Tax Planning." Donald Bruce, John Deskins, and William Fox. (2006). "On The Relative Distortions of State Sales, Corporate Income and Personal Income Taxes." Gruber, Jonthan, and Joshua Rauh. (2005) "How Elastic is the Corporate Income Tax Base. Bruce, Donald, John Deskins, and William Fox. Fiscal Analyst: Randhir Jha, 317-232-9556. HB 1345 2