LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD Austin, Texas FISCAL NOTE, 87TH LEGISLATIVE REGULAR SESSION March 14, 2021 TO: Honorable Bryan Hughes, Chair, Senate Committee on State Affairs FROM: Jerry McGinty, Director, Legislative Budget Board IN RE: SB9 by Paxton (Relating to prohibition of abortion; providing a civil penalty; creating a criminal offense.), As Introduced Estimated Two-year Net Impact to General Revenue Related Funds for SB9, As Introduced : a negative impact of ($176,137,060) through the biennium ending August 31, 2023. General Revenue-Related Funds, Five- Year Impact: Fiscal Year Probable Net Positive/(Negative) Impact toGeneral Revenue Related Funds2022($47,278,908)2023($128,858,152)2024($139,453,590)2025($139,474,199)2026($139,867,650)All Funds, Five-Year Impact: Fiscal Year Probable Savings/(Cost) fromGeneral Revenue Fund1 Probable (Cost) fromGR Match For Medicaid758 Probable Savings/(Cost) fromFederal Funds555 Probable Savings/(Cost) fromGR Match For Title XXI80102022$42,425($47,305,662)($72,999,524)($15,671)2023$42,425($128,645,629)($208,184,610)($254,948)2024$42,425($138,713,898)($217,950,321)($782,117)2025$42,425($138,433,328)($218,948,448)($1,083,296)2026$42,425($138,674,119)($219,094,556)($1,235,956)Fiscal Year Change in Number of State Employees from FY 20212022(1.0)2023(1.0)2024(1.0)2025(1.0)2026(1.0) Fiscal AnalysisContingent upon the issuance of a United States Supreme Court judgement overruling Roe v. Wade as modified by Planned Parenthood v. Casey, the issuance of any other United States Supreme Court decision, or adoption of an amendment to the United States Constitution that wholly or partly restores to the states the authority to prohibit abortion, existing state statutes related to legal abortion are revised.Within 30 days of such an action, excluding certain exceptions, performing or inducing an abortion, as defined by the bill, becomes a civil and criminal offense. A person who violates this section would be subject to a civil penalty of not less than $100,000 for each violation. In addition, the appropriate licensing authority would be required to revoke the license, permit, registration, certificate or other authority of a physician or other health care professional who performs, induces, or attempts an abortion in violation of the statute.
LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD
Austin, Texas
FISCAL NOTE, 87TH LEGISLATIVE REGULAR SESSION
March 14, 2021
TO: Honorable Bryan Hughes, Chair, Senate Committee on State Affairs FROM: Jerry McGinty, Director, Legislative Budget Board IN RE: SB9 by Paxton (Relating to prohibition of abortion; providing a civil penalty; creating a criminal offense.), As Introduced
TO: Honorable Bryan Hughes, Chair, Senate Committee on State Affairs
FROM: Jerry McGinty, Director, Legislative Budget Board
IN RE: SB9 by Paxton (Relating to prohibition of abortion; providing a civil penalty; creating a criminal offense.), As Introduced
Honorable Bryan Hughes, Chair, Senate Committee on State Affairs
Honorable Bryan Hughes, Chair, Senate Committee on State Affairs
Jerry McGinty, Director, Legislative Budget Board
Jerry McGinty, Director, Legislative Budget Board
SB9 by Paxton (Relating to prohibition of abortion; providing a civil penalty; creating a criminal offense.), As Introduced
SB9 by Paxton (Relating to prohibition of abortion; providing a civil penalty; creating a criminal offense.), As Introduced
Estimated Two-year Net Impact to General Revenue Related Funds for SB9, As Introduced : a negative impact of ($176,137,060) through the biennium ending August 31, 2023.
Estimated Two-year Net Impact to General Revenue Related Funds for SB9, As Introduced : a negative impact of ($176,137,060) through the biennium ending August 31, 2023.
General Revenue-Related Funds, Five- Year Impact:
2022 ($47,278,908)
2023 ($128,858,152)
2024 ($139,453,590)
2025 ($139,474,199)
2026 ($139,867,650)
All Funds, Five-Year Impact:
2022 $42,425 ($47,305,662) ($72,999,524) ($15,671)
2023 $42,425 ($128,645,629) ($208,184,610) ($254,948)
2024 $42,425 ($138,713,898) ($217,950,321) ($782,117)
2025 $42,425 ($138,433,328) ($218,948,448) ($1,083,296)
2026 $42,425 ($138,674,119) ($219,094,556) ($1,235,956)
2022 (1.0)
2023 (1.0)
2024 (1.0)
2025 (1.0)
2026 (1.0)
Fiscal Analysis
Contingent upon the issuance of a United States Supreme Court judgement overruling Roe v. Wade as modified by Planned Parenthood v. Casey, the issuance of any other United States Supreme Court decision, or adoption of an amendment to the United States Constitution that wholly or partly restores to the states the authority to prohibit abortion, existing state statutes related to legal abortion are revised.Within 30 days of such an action, excluding certain exceptions, performing or inducing an abortion, as defined by the bill, becomes a civil and criminal offense. A person who violates this section would be subject to a civil penalty of not less than $100,000 for each violation. In addition, the appropriate licensing authority would be required to revoke the license, permit, registration, certificate or other authority of a physician or other health care professional who performs, induces, or attempts an abortion in violation of the statute.
Methodology
For this analysis, it is assumed that the bill would become effective September 1, 2021. As a result, it is assumed that there would be an increase of births in the state by 16,919 in fiscal year 2022; 43,558 in fiscal year 2023; 43,560 in fiscal year 2024; 43,541 in fiscal years 2025 and 2026. It is assumed that Medicaid would pay for 47.5 percent of births, consistent with the rate of all births paid by Medicaid in fiscal year 2018.It is assumed that women who are covered through the program will receive services at an average cost per month of $804.16, and that all infants whose birth was paid through Medicaid will remain eligible for the program during the first year of their life, receiving 12 months of coverage at an average cost of $909.62 per month. The total estimated cost to the Medicaid program to cover the increase is an estimated $120.3 million All Funds in fiscal year 2022, $336.2 million All Funds in fiscal year 2023, $354.6 million All Funds in fiscal year 2024, $354.5 million All Funds in fiscal year 2025, and $354.5 million All Funds in fiscal year 2026. In addition, it is assumed that children one to five years old will be covered through the Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP), and that children under age 1 will receive 12 months of coverage and those aged one to five years will receive six months. The total estimated cost to the CHIP program is $57,321 All Funds in fiscal year 2022; $0.9 million All Funds in fiscal year 2023; $2.9 million All Funds in fiscal year 2024; $4.0 million All Funds in fiscal year 2025; and $4.5 million All Funds in fiscal year 2026.It is also assumed that abortion facility licensing activities at the Health and Human Services Commission (HHSC) would no longer be required. There would be a reduction of 1.0 FTE at HHSC for a savings of $42,425 each fiscal year beginning in 2022. There would also be a loss of revenue from licensing fees estimated to be $135,779 each fiscal year.Total net impact is estimated to be $120.4 million All Funds in fiscal year 2022, $337.1 million All Funds in fiscal year 2023, $357.5 million All Funds in fiscal year 2024, $358.6 million All Funds in fiscal year 2025 and $359.0 million All Funds in fiscal year 2026.The Texas Medical Board, the Office of the Attorney General and the Office of Court Administration indicate any cost to implement provisions of the bill would be minimal and can be absorbed within available resources.
Local Government Impact
No significant fiscal implication to units of local government is anticipated.
Source Agencies: b > td > 212 Office of Court Admin, 302 Office of the Attorney General, 304 Comptroller of Public Accounts, 503 Texas Medical Board, 529 Hlth & Human Svcs Comm
212 Office of Court Admin, 302 Office of the Attorney General, 304 Comptroller of Public Accounts, 503 Texas Medical Board, 529 Hlth & Human Svcs Comm
LBB Staff: b > td > JMc, SMat, JLi, AKi
JMc, SMat, JLi, AKi