STATE OF WISCONSIN
APPENDIX TO 20 23 Senate Bill 301 (LRB-3047/1)
REPORT OF THE JOINT SURVEY COMMITTEE ON RETIREMENT SYSTEMS
(Introduced by Senators FELZKOWSKI, CABRAL- GUEVARA, JAMES, QUINN and
KNODL, cosponsored by Representatives KURTZ, RODRIGUEZ, VOS, AUGUST,
BORN, ARMSTRONG, BEHNKE, BINSFELD, CALLAHAN, DALLMAN, DITTRICH ,
DONOVAN, DUCHOW, EDMING, GREEN, GUNDRUM, GUSTAFSON, HURD,
KATSMA, KITCHENS, KRUG, MAGNAFICI, MAXEY, MICHALSKI, MOSES, MURPHY,
MURSAU, NEDWESKI, O'CONNOR, OLDENBURG, PENTERMAN, PETERSEN,
PETRYK, PLUMER, PRONSCHINSKE, ROZAR, SAPIK, SCHMIDT, SCHRAA,
SNYDER, SORTWELL, SPIROS, STEFFEN, SUMMERFIELD, SWEARINGEN, TUSLER
and ZIMMERMAN.)
An Act relating to: county and municipal aid; imposing a city sales tax and an additional
county sales tax to pay the unfunded actuarial accrued liability of city and county
retirement systems; requiring newly hired city and county employees of certain city
agencies and counties to be enrolled in the Wisconsin Retirement System; fire and
police commissions of first class cities; eliminating the personal property tax; reporting
certain crimes and other incidents that occur on school property or school
transportation; advisory referenda; local health officers; local public protection services;
exceptions to local levy limits; local regulation of certain quarry operations; emergency
services; local approval of projects and activities under the Warren Knowles-Gaylord
Nelson Stewardship 2000 Program; requiring a referendum; and granting rule- making
authority.
PROVISIONS OF THE BILL THAT ARE THE SUBJECT OF THIS REPORT
Section 13.50 (6) (a), Stats., requires the Joint Survey Committee on Retirement
Systems to prepare a report on th e provisions of any bill, and any amendments to the
bill, that modify the Wisconsin Retirement S ystem (WRS) for, or make any provision
for, the retirement of or payment of pensions to public officers or employees. The
specific provisions of this bill that are the subject of this report include:
1. The authorization of a city sales tax and an additional county sales tax to pay the
unfunded actuarial accrued liability (UAAL) of city and county retirement systems.
[S
ECTIONS 1-6, 19-22, 44-45, 167, 174-189, 215, and 237-246 of 2023 Senate Bill 301.]
2. The requirement for newly hired city and county employees of certain city agencies
and counties to be enrolled in the WRS . [S
ECTIONS 42-43, 176-177, 237, 241, 244, and 246
of 2023 Senate Bill 301.]
These provisions are described below. - 2 -
Imposition of a City Sales Tax and an Additional County Sales Tax to Pay
the UA AL of City and County Retirement Systems
Description
These provisions of 2023 Senate Bill 301 permit the City of Milwaukee and Milwaukee
County to impose additional sales and use taxes in order to address UAAL of their
respective employee pension systems.
Current law permits a county to impose a 0.5 percent sales and use tax on the sales
price of tangible personal property, goods and services that are sold or used in the
county. Milwaukee County currently imposes this tax.
2023 Senate Bill 301 permits the City of Milwaukee and Milwaukee County to impose
sales and use taxes of 2.0 percent and 0.375 percent, respectively, for the purposes of
reducing UAAL associated with their employee pension systems and, with respect to the
city, to pay for public safety services. The taxes must be approved at referendums by City
of Milwaukee or Milwaukee County voters, respectively, and the c ity and county must
elect to join the WRS for all of its new employees.
The bill requires the City of Milwaukee and Milwaukee County to calculate required
annual employer contributions using a 30 -year amortization period and an annual
investment return assumption that is the same or less than the annual investment
return assumption used by the WRS (currently 6.8 percent).
The City of Milwaukee may use no more than 90 percent of the annual revenue
generated by the additiona l sales and use tax to pay the annual employer contributions
toward the UAAL of its current pension system. Ten percent of the annual additional
sales and use tax revenue must be used to maintain 2023 levels of law enforcement, fire
protective and emergency medical service. Any further annual excess collected must be
used to pay ongoing costs related to increase d staffing levels of law enforcement officers
and paid fire department staff.
Milwaukee County must use the annual revenue generated by the additional sales and
use tax that is not used to pay the retirement system’s annual employer contribution
toward UAAL to repay its existing pension bond obligations. Any additional annual
excess revenue collected through the additional sales and use tax authority must be used
as an additional payment to the county retirement system’s remaining UAAL.
In any year that the c ity or c ounty does not make the required contributions to the
UAAL of their respective retirement systems, the Department of Revenue (DOR) must
reduce their respective shared revenue payment by the amount of the unpaid
contribution and use the amount to pay toward the UAAL .
In any year that the c ity or c ounty uses the additional sales and use tax revenues for a
purpose not authorized under Senate Bill 301 , DOR must reduce their shared revenue
payment by the amount of the unauthorized expenditure. - 3 -
The additional sales tax authority authorized by the bill ceases for either the city or the
county at the earlier of fully funding their respective retirement systems or after 30
years have elapsed since the effective date of the tax. Both the city and the county must
submit annual reports to the Joint Committee on Finance detailing the expenditures of
funds collected under the additional sales and use tax.
Actuarial Effect
These provisions will likely have a significant actuarial effect on the City of Milwaukee
and Milwaukee County Employee Retirement Systems. While the effects of this specific
provision were not fully studied by the consulting actuary (GRS Consulting), GRS
reviewed existing actuarial assumptions for the City of Milwaukee and Milwaukee
County, as well as their January 1, 2022 actuarial report and summary material of
recent economic and demographic experience studies, and made projections based on
specific scenarios requested by the Legislative Fiscal Bureau. Assuming that new hires
for the city and county join the WRS after January 2024, the current annual i nvestment
return assumption used by the WRS (6.8 percent), and the 30-year amortization period
required under Senate Bill 301, the city’s projected UAAL would be approximately $2.3
billion. The c ounty’s projected UAAL would be approximately $700 million using the
same assumptions. In contrast, the same projections using the 7.5 percent return
assumption currently used by the city and c ounty would result in projected UAALs of
$1.61 billion and $570 million, respectively, which is the same projection if no
legislation was passed.
Probable Costs
Addressing current UAAL issues for the city and county will, necessarily, increase
employer contributions under the provisions of their current systems. These increased
costs are based on assumptions utilized. One way to represent the scale of the city and
county UAAL issues is to represent UAAL in relation to total municipal payroll costs,
recognizing that following referenda as authorized by the bill, new sales tax revenues
would be available to address these liabilities . Assuming a 30-year amortization period,
a 6.8 percent return assumption and new hires after 2024 joining the WRS, as proposed
in the bill, the projected employer contribution cost for the City of Milwaukee would
result in projected employer costs of 41.4 percent of payroll in 2024 to 23.0 percent of
payroll in 2053. The same scenario for Milwaukee County would result in projected
employer contribution costs of 30.8 percent of payroll in 2024 to 17. 2 percent of payroll
in 2053, utilizing the assumptions proposed in the bill.
For more information on the actuarial effects and potential costs generated by this
provision and several other scenarios, please see the actuarial study attached to this
report. Detailed annual cost projection s under a variety of sce narios are available in
Section D of the attached actuarial study. Summary results of projected cost scenarios
may be found on page A-7. - 4 -
Requiring Newly Hired City a nd County Employees of Certain City
Agencies and Counties t o be Enrolled i n the WRS
Description
These provisions of 2023 Senate Bill 301 require newly hired employees of the City of
Milwaukee and Milwaukee County to participate in the W RS.
Under current law, the City of Milwaukee and Milwaukee County each operate their
own employee pension systems, independent of the WRS .
2023 Senate Bill 301 requires that the City of Milwaukee and Milwaukee County join
the WRS following the imposition of the additional sales and use tax referenced above
with respect to all new employees of the city and the c ounty hired after December 31 of
the year in which the city or county adopts the additional sales and use tax.
Actuarial Effect
Based on the analysis provided by GRS, for general and protective employees with Social
Security coverage, the size of the new entrant group is expected to be small relative to
the size of the WRS and is, therefore, unlikely to have any material impact on WRS
normal cost rates, regardless of the employees’ prospective ages at entry. For protective
employees without Social Security coverage, the size of the group of potential entrants to
the WRS is similar to those already participating in the WRS and “could potentially
affect the total normal cost very gradually over time.” GRS further indicates that because
the average ages, lengths of service, salaries, and entry ages are “very similar” to the
WRS, this is unlikely to change the normal cost significantly. Finally, GRS notes that
because benefits and contributions are proportional to pay, the differences in average
pay for Milwaukee employees is a neutral matter with respect to the WRS.
Probable Costs
As noted in the a ctuarial analysis presented above, this provision is not expected to
materially increase costs to the WRS.
For more information on the actuarial effects and potential costs generated by this
provision, see page A-8 of the actuarial study attached to this report.
POLICY RECOMMENDATION
On tie votes of Ayes, 5, Noes, 5, the Joint Survey Committee on Retirement Systems
makes no recommendation regarding the desirability of the provisions of 2023 Senate
Bill 301, as they relate to the City of Milwaukee and Milwaukee County employee
retirement systems, and the WRS.
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement
Systems Closure and Entry Into the
Wisconsin Retirement System
ATTACHMENT Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS
Table of Contents
Page
Cover Letter
Section A Executive Summary A-1
Section B Audit of Unfunded Actuarial Accrued Liability
Milwaukee City B-1
Milwaukee County B-17
Section C Review of Soft Close Projections
Milwaukee City C-1
Milwaukee County C-3
Section D Cost Comparison Charts and Legislative Fiscal Bureau Requested
Information
D-1 March 31, 2023
Mr. Matt Stohr
Administrator -- Division of Retirement Services
Wisconsin D.E.T.F.
4822 Madison Yards Way
Madison, Wisconsin 53705
Dear Mr. Stohr:
Gabriel, Roeder, Smith & Company (GRS) is pleased to present this report related to the potential closure
of the City of Milwaukee Employes’ Retirement System and the Employees’ Retirement System of the
County of Milwaukee, and the potential for new hires from each System to enter the Wisconsin
Retirement System on a prospective basis.
This report should not be relied on for an y purpose other than those described above. It was prepared at
the request of Wisconsin DETF and the Legislative Fiscal Bureau. It is intended for their use or by those
designated o r approved by Wisconsin DETF and the Legislative Fiscal Bureau. This report may be provided
to other parties only in its entirety and only with the permission of Wisconsin DETF and the Legislative
Fiscal Bureau. GRS is not responsible for unauthorized use of this report.
Future actuarial measurements may differ significantly from the current measurements presented in this
report due to such factors as the following: plan experience differing from that anticipated b y the
economic or demographic assumptions; chan ges in economic or demographic assumptions; increases or
decreases expected as part of the natural operation of the methodology used for these measurements;
and changes in plan provisions or applicable law.
This report was prepared using our proprietary valuation model and related software which, in our
professional judgment, has the capability to provide results that are consistent with the purposes of the
valuation an d has no material limitations or known weaknesses. We performed tests to ensure that the
model reasonably represents that which is intended to be modeled.
This report does not include an assessment of the risks of future experience not meeting the actuarial
assumptions. Additional assessment of risks was outside the scope of this assignment.
Users of this report must understand that we did not have access to full datasets for th e two subject
retirement systems. Our results, therefore, are necessarily based on approximations an d judgment which
limits their value to a cer tain extent. Results based upon a complete set of data would be different and
could potentially lead to different judgments regarding the matters at issue.
Mr. Matt Stohr
March 31, 2023
Page 2
To the best of our knowledge this report is complete and accurate within the limits described above. All
calculations have been made in conformity with generally accepted actuarial principles and practices and
with the Actuarial Standards of Practice issued by the Actuarial Standards Board. Brian B. Murphy, Mark
Buis and James D. Anderson are all Members of the American Academy of Actuaries (MAAA) and meet the
Qualification Standards of the American Academy of Actuaries to render the actuarial opinions contained
herein. The signing actuaries are independent of the plan sponsor.
GRS appreciatively acknowledges your efforts in gathering materials for this project.
Respectfully submitted,
Gabriel, Roeder, Smith & Company
Brian B. Murphy, FSA, EA, FCA, MAAA, PhD
Mark Buis, FSA, EA, FCA, MAAA
James D. Anderson, FSA, EA, FCA, MAAA
BBM/MB/JDA:rmn
SECTION A
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS A-1
Executive Summary
Background
Gabriel, Roeder, Smith & Company (GRS) was asked to provide the following scope of work:
▪ Confirm Unfunded Actuarial Accrued Liability (UAAL) amounts for each of the Milwaukee City and
County retirement systems
o Determine the proportion of current UAAL that relates to actives vs. retirees
▪ Provide recommendations on the best approach (i.e., amortize over 10, 20, or 30 years or pay as
you go) to pay the unfunded liability once the amount is confirmed and a revenue source (sales
tax) is secured
▪ Review soft close projections from Segal and Cavanaugh Macdonald (provided by ETF)
▪ Provide a comparison chart with the following elements, highlighting and explaining sources of
cost differences (Example chart below):
Measure
Milwaukee
Status Quo
(No Legislation)
Milwaukee New Hires into
WRS after 1/24, Assumed
Rate of Return 7.5%
Milwaukee New Hires
into WRS after 1/24,
Assumed WRS Rate of
Return 6.8%
Projected Rates
Projected Normal
Cost
Projected UAAL
▪ The Legislative Fiscal Bureau requested the following figures for each of the scenarios:
(1) An amortization schedule of UAAL payments (for the Milwaukee plans)
(2) Projected annual normal cost payments (for the Milwaukee plans)
(3) Projected annual employee contributions (for the Milwaukee plans)
(4) Projected annual employer and employee WRS contributions
Confirmation of Unfunded Actuarial Accrued Liability
For both the City and the County, GRS reviewed existing actuarial assumptions, the January 1, 2022
actuarial reports and summary material of recent economic and demographic experience studies.
Observations from this review include:
▪ Demographic assumptions are generally reasonable for both Systems
▪ Economic assumptions are generally reasonable for both Systems, but we would prefer a lower
discount rate assumption due to large negative cash flows for each System (contributions minus
benefit payments) and the related fact that:
o Retiree liabilities comprise 74% of the total actuarial accrued liabilities for the City
o Retiree liabilities comprise 81% of the total actuarial accrued liabilities for the County
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS A-2
▪ We estimated liabilities at 6.8% discount and adjusted them approximately to reflect the revised
assumptions in the recent experience studies:
o At 6.8% discount and using new assumptions
• The City accrued liability becomes approximately $7.5 Billion, inclusive of retiree
liabilities equaling approximately $5.6 Billion – versus market assets of $6.4 Billion
at January 1, 2022.
• The County accrued liability becomes approximately $2.4 Billion, inclusive of
retiree liabilities equaling approximately $2.0 Billion – versus market assets of
$1.97 Billion at December 31, 2021.
• At January 1, 2022 -- This means that essentially all of the assets (at actuarial value
for the City, at market value for the County) are needed to cover retiree liabilities
and that essentially all of the unfunded liability is for current active members.
• At December 31, 2022 -- Calendar 2022 asset returns were negative for the vast
majority of Retirement Systems, further eroding the funded status. It is likely that
as of December 31, 2022 all or nearly all of the assets would be needed to cover
retiree liabilities in both systems.
For reference: a November 2022 Flash report for the County indicates
Market value assets of $1.7 Billion as of November 30, 2022 which could
mean that part of the County retiree liabilities could actually be unfunded
as of December 31, 2022.
Impact of Plan Closure on Unfunded Actuarial Accrued Liability
If the plans close to new hires we would suggest that the investment consultant review the asset
allocation with the closure in mind and that the actuary reconsider the actuarial assumptions and the
actuarial cost method.
Regarding the actuarial assumptions, in some very rudimentary modelling that we have done (that was
not specific to the instant situation), we have found that when a plan is closed, the discount rate should
be reduced by something on the order of 100 to 200 basis points from the discount rate that would apply
to a similarly situated open plan. This is because the asset allocation cannot be assumed to remain
constant over the remaining life of the plan. As benefit payments increase relative to the asset pool, an
ever-larger portion of the assets must inevitably be held in low risk liquid investments if benefit payments
are not to be put at risk.
In the chart below, we selected the SWIB 6.80% return assumption as the standard basis and present very
rough estimates of the accrued liabilities of both systems at 4.80%, 5.80% and 6.80%. The figures shown
are intended to approximate results based upon the most recent experience studies of the two systems.
Since we do not have access to full data sets we have used approximation techniques to prepare these
figures. In our judgment the figures provide reasonable measures of the magnitude and direction of the
effect of the illustrated discount rate changes on the liabilities, but the results could differ greatly from
results that would be obtained from a complete actuarial valuation.
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS A-3
Estimated Results at January 1, 2022 After Experience Study ($ Millions)
Actuarial Accrued Liabilities
Discount Rate 4.80% 5.80% 6.80% Assets
City $9,769.5 $8,505.7 $7,501.7 $5,673.8
County $3,082.9 $2,715.2 $2,432.7 $1,763.5
Regarding the actuarial cost method, both plans currently use the Entry Age Actuarial cost method. This
method bases the normal cost on the imputed characteristics of hypothetical new hires and then backs
into the accrued liability. Since in a closed plan there will be no new hires, this method would not be our
preferred method for valuation if the plans are indeed closed. We would instead suggest that the plan’s
actuary consider whether or not the projected unit credit actuarial cost method might be more suitable
than the entry age method for developing the plan’s liabilities. Since most of the liabilities are for retirees,
this would result in a relatively small percentage change to total liabilities -- probably downward. We
think that it may provide a more accurate reflection of emerging liabilities.
Considering both the discount rate assumption and the actuarial cost method, we think that expressing
the liabilities initially using a Low Default Risk Obligation Measure such as described in ASOP 4 may be an
appropriate exercise.
It is a common misconception that once the unfunded accrued liability is fully funded (when plan assets
equal or exceed the accrued liability), the benefit obligation has been settled and contributions can cease.
However, funding is still required for the accrual of benefits by continuing active members (the Normal
Cost) and importantly, the unfunded liability is a fluid number that will change from year to year based on
market experience. Suppose, for example that the City fully paid off the existing unfunded liability 10
years from today or even today. If the fund assets were to have a poor year or two and return negative
20%, the plan would revert to 80% funded status and new unfunded liability would need to be paid off
leading to a need for additional contributions. For that reason, closed plans often look for risk mitigation
strategies to either:
▪ Match movement in plan assets and plan liabilities to each other (“liability matching”); or
▪ Transfer all or a portion of the liabilities to a third party -- for example by purchasing annuities.
Over the past 10 years, the low interest rate environment made the strategies above very difficult to
accomplish since doing so would have been cost prohibitive. However, with the recent uptick in interest
rates and fixed income yields, there may be new opportunities to immunize against adverse investment
risk. If the plan is closed we recommend that such opportunities be explored.
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS A-4
Recommendation on Financing Approach for Unfunded Liability
The Milwaukee plans currently use a version of level percent of pay amortization of unfunded liabilities --
this means that the dollar contribution for unfunded liabilities is expected to increase each year at the
rate that City payroll (2.00%) or County revenue (1.75%) is expected to grow.
Once closed to new hires, the plans’ covered payroll will eventually begin to decline, and level percent of
payroll amortization becomes impractical to implement. We think the first step following closure is really
to reassess the unfunded liability based upon a discount rate and actuarial cost method targeted to the
closed plan. Once that is done, options for amortization of the unfunded liabilities include:
▪ Using Level Dollar amortization of UAAL or contributions increasing at a stated rate based upon
expected availability of resources; for example, the 2.00% and 1.75% rates above might be
reasonable, although we would prefer strict level dollar.
▪ Using an amortization method that front loads contributions; one choice would be level principal
declining interest.
Best practices generally call for accelerated funding in a closed plan, which is likely to increase plan
sponsor contributions near term.
City Pension Financing Recommendation
▪ Transition from the “Stable Contribution Rate Policy” to making full actuarial determined
contributions as rapidly as possible, ideally immediately.
▪ Finance the unfunded liability at closure over the present remaining funding period.
▪ Finance all new liability arising after plan closure using 15-year closed layered level dollar
amortization.
▪ Consider shortening the 15-year period above in steps as the plan winds up.
▪ Perform regular projections and stress tests to ensure that funding is sufficient to pay benefits in a
timely manner and that risk mitigation is sufficient.
▪ Re-assess the funding policy and actuarial assumptions on a regular schedule.
▪ Watch for opportunities to reduce risk, purchase annuities, or otherwise to spin off liabilities.
County Pension Financing Recommendation
▪ Finance the unfunded liability at closure over the present remaining funding period.
▪ Finance all new liability arising after plan closure using 15-year closed layered level dollar
amortization.
▪ Consider shortening the 15-year period above in steps as the plan winds up.
▪ Perform regular projections and stress tests to ensure that funding is sufficient to pay benefits in a
timely manner and that risk mitigation is sufficient.
▪ Re-assess the funding policy and actuarial assumptions on a regular schedule.
▪ Watch for opportunities to reduce risk, purchase annuities, or otherwise to spin off liabilities.
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS A-5
Review of Soft Close Projections by Segal and Cavanaugh Macdonald
In general, we found that the projections for Milwaukee City (conducted by Cavanaugh Macdonald) and
Milwaukee County (conducted by Segal) provided projection results that were internally consistent and
accurate. We note that the Cavanaugh Macdonald report did not provide a ‘Baseline’ scenario, stating
“We believe this comparison would have limited value at this time”. As an outside reader, this made it
difficult to form an opinion regarding the overall cost impact. We also note that the Segal report did not
disclose the basis for the Milwaukee County Unfunded Actuarial Accrued Liability (UAAL) in the baseline
scenario (an amount of $474.47 million). The January 1, 2022 valuation report reported the unfunded
liability to be $537.7 million on an actuarial value of assets basis and $330.9 million on a market value
basis. We note there may have been additional detail in a prior report. The firms used different
methodologies, assumptions, metrics and scenarios in their respective analyses which made comparing
the impact for each system difficult. The following table summarizes these differences and provides the
approach GRS used for consolidation.
Milwaukee Milwaukee Current
City County Study
(CavMac) (Segal) (GRS)
Liability Present Value of Projected Benefits (PVFB)Entry Age Actuarial Accrued Liability (AAL)Entry Age Actuarial Accrued Liability (AAL)
Assets Value UsedMarket Value (MV) Actuarial Value Assets (AVA) Market Value (MV)
UAAL DefinitionPVFB + Expenses - EE cont - MV AAL - AVA AAL - MV
Amortization of UAAL30, 20 years 10 years 30, 20, 10 Years
Projection Start DateJanuary 1, 2023 January 1, 2023 January 1, 2024
Wage Inflation 3.0% 3.5% 3.0%
Scenarios Proposed Scenario only with different 5 Scenarios (including baseline) Baseline, Proposed Change at 7.5%
Amortization Periods Proposed Change at 6.8%
Projection MetricsTotal Cost, ERS and WRS breakout Normal Cost, Member Rate, UAAL PaymentERS Amortization, ERS ER Normal Cost,
Total Cost, ERS and WRS breakoutsERS, EE Cont, WRS EE+ER Cont
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS A-6
Comparison Chart of Costs
Section D of this report develops summary charts of projected UAAL payments (10, 20 and 30 years),
Employer Normal Cost and Employee contributions under the requested scenarios for Milwaukee City and
County separately. Below is a consolidated summary of these results which combines both Milwaukee
plans. Please note that for the Status Quo column, for consistency in comparing disparate results from
the actuaries for the City and County (as noted on the previous page), we amortized the existing
unfunded liability over 30, 20 and 10 year periods instead of the current funding policies of Milwaukee
City and County. W e also estimated the unfunded liability as of January 1, 2024 based on estimated
accrued liability and a Market Value of Assets that considers the unfavorable investment performance of
2022 and projecting with the assumed interest rate thereafter.
The ‘first year rate’ shown below is the rate in 2024. The ‘ultimate rate’ is the rate that would occur after
all post-2023 Milwaukee hires are active members in the WRS plan (approximately 40 years). The
projections are based on all assumptions being met, including receipt of all required employer and
employee contributions during the period. While these spot rates are helpful from a comparison
standpoint, additional detail showing how the rates change over time are provided in the complete
projection summaries in Section D of this report.
Observations on Summary Charts Below
Scenario 1: Milwaukee Status Quo (No Legislation)
Milwaukee continues having stand-alone plans. The Projected ER contributions shown below are based
on a unified amortization approach.
Scenario 2: Milwaukee New Hires into WRS after 1/2024, Assumed Rate of Return 7.5% for Milwaukee
The first year ER and EE contribution rates, Normal Costs, and UAAL are unchanged, since no new hires
have occurred, and the interest rate applied to Milwaukee plans remains 7.5%. The ultimate ER
contribution rate reflects amortization of legacy liabilities and movement of all new hires into WRS and
valued using 6.8% assumed rate of return.
Scenario 3: Milwaukee New Hires into WRS after 1/2024, Assumed Rate of Return 6.8% for Milwaukee
In all cases, the percentages are expressed as percentages of the total payroll of the entity combining
both payroll covered by the closed system and payroll potentially covered by the Wisconsin Retirement
System. The first year ER and EE contribution rates, Normal Costs, and UAAL all increase from the
valuation figures. While no new hires have occurred, the interest rate applied to Milwaukee plans
changed to 6.8%. The ultimate ER contribution rate reflects amortization of legacy liabilities and
movement of all new hires into WRS and valued using 6.8% assumed rate of return.
Scenario 4: Milwaukee New Hires into WRS after 1/2024, Assumed Rate of Return 5.8% for Milwaukee
This scenario has been added on the following page at the request of the Legislative Fiscal Bureau.
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS A-7
City County City County City County City County
Projected ER Contribution
First Year Rate 31.4% 25.2% 31.4% 25.2% 41.4% 30.8% 55.3% 39.5%
Ultimate Rate 10.0% 4.7% 10.9% 7.3% 10.9% 7.3% 10.9% 7.4%
Projected EE Contribution
First Year Rate 5.6% 4.7% 5.6% 4.7% 5.6% 5.5% 5.6% 6.8%
Ultimate Rate 5.6% 4.7% 6.8% 6.8% 6.8% 6.8% 6.8% 6.8%
Projected Normal Cost
First Year Rate 15.6% 9.3% 15.6% 9.3% 18.2% 10.9% 22.8% 13.7%
Ultimate Rate 15.6% 9.3% 17.7% 14.1% 17.7% 14.1% 17.7% 14.2%
Projected UAAL
As of 1/1/2024 based on MV$1.61 Billion$0.57 Billion$1.61 Billion$0.57 Billion$2.31 Billion$0.70 Billion$3.39 Billion$1.00 Billion
* 7.5% Assumed for closed Milwaukee plans, WRS plans valued at 6.8%
Milwaukee
Scenario 4
Milwaukee New Hires into
WRS after 1/24, Assumed
Rate of Return 5.8%
Summary of Results using 30-Year Amortization of UAAL
Scenario 3
WRS after 1/24, Assumed
Rate of Return 6.8%
Scenario 1
Status Quo
(No Legislation)
Scenario 2
WRS after 1/24, Assumed
Rate of Return 7.5%*
Milwaukee New Hires intoMilwaukee New Hires into
City County City County City County City County
Projected ER Contribution
First Year Rate 34.8% 28.8% 34.8% 28.8% 46.4% 35.3% 63.2% 46.2%
Ultimate Rate 10.0% 4.7% 10.9% 7.3% 10.9% 7.3% 10.9% 7.4%
Projected EE Contribution
First Year Rate 5.6% 4.7% 5.6% 4.7% 5.6% 5.5% 5.6% 6.8%
Ultimate Rate 5.6% 4.7% 6.8% 6.8% 6.8% 6.8% 6.8% 6.8%
Projected Normal Cost
First Year Rate 15.6% 9.3% 15.6% 9.3% 18.2% 10.9% 22.8% 13.7%
Ultimate Rate 15.6% 9.3% 17.7% 14.1% 17.7% 14.1% 17.7% 14.2%
Projected UAAL
as of 1/1/2024 based on MV$1.61 Billion$0.57 Billion$1.61 Billion$0.57 Billion$2.31 Billion$0.70 Billion$3.39 Billion$1.00 Billion
* 7.5% Assumed for closed Milwaukee plans, WRS plans valued at 6.8%
Rate of Return 6.8%
Scenario 4
Milwaukee New Hires into
WRS after 1/24, Assumed
Rate of Return 5.8%
Summary of Results using 20-Year Amortization of UAAL
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
Milwaukee Milwaukee New Hires into Milwaukee New Hires into
Status Quo WRS after 1/24, Assumed WRS after 1/24, Assumed
(No Legislation) Rate of Return 7.5%*
City County City County City County City County
Projected ER Contribution
First Year Rate 46.8% 41.3% 46.8% 41.3% 63.9% 50.8% 89.3% 68.7%
Ultimate Rate 10.0% 4.7% 10.9% 7.3% 10.9% 7.3% 10.9% 7.4%
Projected EE Contribution
First Year Rate 5.6% 4.7% 5.6% 4.7% 5.6% 5.5% 5.6% 6.8%
Ultimate Rate 5.6% 4.7% 6.8% 6.8% 6.8% 6.8% 6.8% 6.8%
Projected Normal Cost
First Year Rate 15.6% 9.3% 15.6% 9.3% 18.2% 10.9% 22.8% 13.7%
Ultimate Rate 15.6% 9.3% 17.7% 14.1% 17.7% 14.1% 17.7% 14.2%
Projected UAAL
as of 1/1/2024 based on MV$1.61 Billion$0.57 Billion$1.61 Billion$0.57 Billion$2.31 Billion$0.70 Billion$3.39 Billion$1.00 Billion
* 7.5% Assumed for closed Milwaukee plans, WRS plans valued at 6.8%
Rate of Return 6.8%
Scenario 4
Milwaukee New Hires into
WRS after 1/24, Assumed
Rate of Return 5.8%
Summary of Results using 10-Year Amortization of UAAL
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
Milwaukee Milwaukee New Hires into Milwaukee New Hires into
Status Quo WRS after 1/24, Assumed WRS after 1/24, Assumed
(No Legislation) Rate of Return 7.5%*
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS A-8
Executive Summary
Determine Any Potential Impacts to the WRS
In general, when new entrants enter the WRS on a prospective basis, there is very little impact to the
costs of WRS. New entrants arrive and WRS receives the associated employer and employee
contributions. If, however, the demographics of the new entrants is significantly different than the
demographics of WRS, this could ultimately shift the normal cost rate. Below is a summary of the January
1, 2022 census of active participants for WRS compared to Milwaukee City and County Plans. MilwaukeeMilwaukee
General Employees City County WRS
Count 7,768 3,060234,494
Average Age 46.9 45.2 45.0
Average Service 10.4 9.4 11.1
Average Entry Age 36.5 35.8 33.9
Average Salary $47,500$60,000$58,179
Protective with Milwaukee
Social Security County WRS
Count 265 19,175
Average Age 39.4 39.7
Average Service 12.1 12.0
Average Entry Age 27.3 27.7
Average Salary $70,228$80,525
Protective withoutMilwaukee
Social Security City WRS
Count 2,326 2,762
Average Age 39.8 40.4
Average Service 13.1 13.5
Average Entry Age 26.7 26.9
Average Salary $90,342$99,281
For General and Protective with Social Security groups, the ultimate size of the new entrant group (in 30
to 40 years), is very small in relation to the WRS and is unlikely to have any material impact on normal
cost rates, regardless of prospective ages at plan entry.
For the Protective without Social Security group, the ultimate size of Milwaukee City public safety
participants is somewhat similar to the WRS and could potentially affect the total normal cost very
gradually over time. However, the average age, average service and average salary for Milwaukee City is
very similar to corresponding figures for WRS participants. Given that new entrants would enter the WRS
with a very similar entry age, this is unlikely to change the normal cost rate significantly.
We note that with the exception of County General employees, the average pay for Milwaukee
employees is well below the WRS average. Since benefits and contributions are both proportional to pay,
we think that this is a neutral matter with respect to the WRS.
SECTION B
AUDIT OF UNFUNDED ACTUARIAL ACCRUED LIABILITY
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS B-1
Unfunded Liability – Milwaukee City
Executive Summary
We have reviewed the existing actuarial assumptions, the January 1, 2022 actuarial report and the
material presented in two PowerPoints that summarized recent economic and demographic experience
studies. The PowerPoints were dated August 24, 2022 and September 28, 2022 respectively. We also
reviewed the report of the phase 1 Asset Liability study performed by the Callan firm and dated
February 9, 2023. We think that the demographic assumptions are generally reasonable, although left to
our own devices we would use different assumptions than the retained actuary for mortality and certain
other decrement rates. We think that the economic assumptions are also reasonable, but we would
prefer a lower discount rate assumption due to the large negative cash flows and the related fact that
74% of the liabilities are for retirees.
The January 1, 2022 Valuation prepared by the retained actuaries presents the following information
regarding the unfunded accrued liability at various discount rates.
We made an estimate of liabilities at 6.8% discount and adjusted it approximately to reflect the revised
assumptions in the recent experience study. The result of that estimate is that the accrued liability would
become approximately $7.5 Billion with the new assumptions and 6.8% discount. The retiree liabilities
would increase to approximately $5.6 Billion. This means that essentially all of the assets (at actuarial
value) are needed to cover retiree liabilities and that essentially all of the unfunded liability is for current
active members. The assets are sufficient to cover the retiree liabilities at 6.8% discount. The market value
of assets is actually $6.4 Billion at January 1, 2022, but of course it is quite likely that at the time of this
writing market value of assets is below that level.
If the plan is closed to new hires, we would suggest that the investment consultant review the asset
allocation with that in mind and that the actuary reconsider the actuarial assumptions and the actuarial
cost method. We suggest that the Projected Unit Credit (PUC) method is more consistent with the accrual
of benefits in a closed plan than the entry age normal method. Since the vast majority of liabilities are for
retirees, the change to PUC would not have a large effect on liabilities. We would also prefer to express
the liabilities using a Low Default Risk Obligation Measure.
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS B-2
Detailed Analysis of Assumptions and UAAL
The combined fund is 99% of the total as evidenced by the following directly excerpted chart from the
January 1, 2022 actuarial valuation. Consequently, most of our analysis focuses on the combined fund.
($ in thousands)
Information presented elsewhere in the actuarial report indicates that retiree liabilities are $5.1 Billion
and therefore 74% of total actuarial accrued liabilities as of January 1, 2022. That is a much higher ratio
than we typically see. The following chart is based upon data in the actuarial report. It shows the cash
flows associated with the Combined Fund.
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS B-3
Negative Net External Cash Flow at a level of 6.1% in a plan whose liabilities are 74% in payment status is
a leading indicator of potential exhaustion of assets. Contribution rates are expected to nearly double in
the near future as a consequence of the stabilization policy. The increased contributions required by the
stabilization policy, if made, would help preserve the integrity of the fund. Under these conditions it is
important that the assumptions upon which the liabilities and contributions are based be carefully
reviewed, and that increased contributions are received as scheduled.
Market Value January 1, 2021 $5,597,607,000
Contributions
Member $31,435,000
Employer $82,960,000
Total $114,395,000
Disbursements
Annuities $441,005,000
Refunds $4,116,000
Admin Expenses $5,935,000
Total $451,056,000
Net External Cash Flow -$336,661,000
Net Investment Return $1,106,952,000
Market Value December 31,2021$6,367,898,000
Contributions as a % of Assets 2.0%
Disbursements as % of Assets 8.1%
Net External Cash Flow -6.1%
Combined Fund
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS B-4
Economic Assumptions
In this section of the report, we present our analysis of the Economic and Demographic Assumptions
Studies that the retained actuary used to calculate the unfunded liability of the retirement system. The
assumptions are the basis (i.e., rationale) for the calculation of the actuarial accrued liability, and,
therefore, of the unfunded liability. Actuarial assumptions must comply with the following:
(1) Actuarial Standards of Practice (ASOP) No. 27, Selection of Economic Assumptions for Measuring
Pension Obligations; and
(2) ASOP No. 35, Selection of Demographic and Other Noneconomic Assumptions for Measuring
Pension Obligations.
In addition to reviewing the assumptions for compliance with the above, we will compare them with
assumptions in use by other governmental plans.
The items reviewed in connection with this part of our analysis include and are limited to:
▪ An Actuarial Valuation of the retirement system as of January 1, 2022 and dated May 26, 2022
signed by Larry Langer and Patrice Beckham of Cavanaugh Macdonald Consulting LLC
The above report references a five-year experience study that was completed in 2018. A copy of that
study was not available to us.
The actuarial assumptions setting process is a combination of art and science. An actuary’s professional
judgment is a key component in the assumption setting process. Different actuarial consulting firms, and
different actuaries within the same firm, may have significantly different thoughts on how some
assumptions should be developed. Our analysis will not focus on minor differences in judgment items, but
rather only on issues that could materially affect the assessment of the unfunded actuarial accrued
liability.
Economic Assumptions
The economic assumptions used in the January 2022 valuation were as follows:
▪ Inflation: 2.5%
▪ Investment Return: 7.5%
▪ Cost of Living Adjustments: 2.5% for retirees whose COLA is the lesser of 3% and CPI-U
▪ Salary Increase Rates: Table by Age and Occupation
▪ Payroll Growth: 2% -- the rate of increase of UAAL payments
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS B-5
Peer Comparison
The charts below are taken from the NASRA March 2022 Issue Brief “Public Pension Plan Investment
Return Assumptions”.
Actuarial assumptions cannot and should not be judged based upon a peer comparison, but assumptions
deviating materially from the peer universe may require special scrutiny. The charts do suggest that the
2.5% inflation assumption is mainstream, but they also suggest that the 7.5% investment return
assumption is in the minority.
Guidance regarding the selection of economic assumptions for measuring pension obligations is provided
by ASOP No. 27. The standard requires that the selected economic assumptions be consistent with each
other. That is, the selection of the investment return assumption should be consistent with the selection
of the wage inflation and price inflation assumptions.
ASOP No. 27 (applicable to valuation dates on or after August 1, 2021) defines a reasonable economic
assumption as an assumption that has the following characteristics:
1. It is appropriate for the purpose of the measurement;
2. It reflects the actuary’s professional judgment;
3. It considers historical and current economic data that is relevant as of the measurement date;
4. It reflects the actuary’s estimate of future experience, the actuary’s observation of the estimates
inherent in market data (if any), or a combination thereof; and
5. It has no significant bias (i.e., it is not significantly optimistic or pessimistic), except when
provisions for adverse deviation or plan provisions that are difficult to measure are included and
disclosed or when alternative assumptions are used for the assessment of risk.
In selecting economic assumptions, the actuary relies on many different experts (e.g., investment
consultants) for data and analysis. However, as required by ASOP No. 27, “When the actuary is
responsible for selecting or giving advice on selecting economic assumptions within the scope of this
standard, the actuary may incorporate the views of experts but the selection or advice should reflect the
actuary’s professional judgment.”
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS B-6
Price Inflation
Price inflation underlies both the wage inflation and investment return assumptions.
Sources of data that GRS generally consider in the analysis of the price inflation assumption include:
1. Inflation expectations of various Federal Reserve Banks (e.g., Cleveland, St. Louis)
2. Philadelphia Federal Reserve quarterly survey of Society of Professional Forecasters
3. Comparison of Treasury yields and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS)
4. Future expectations of the plan’s investment consultant and other investment consultants that
GRS monitors
Presented on the following page are forward-looking price inflation forecasts that GRS monitors to assist
in developing the price inflation assumption.
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS B-7
Forward-Looking Price Inflation Forecasts
a
Congressional Budget Office
b
5-Year Annual Average 3.23%
10-Year Annual Average 2.81%
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
c
5-Year Annual Average 3.75%
10-Year Annual Average 2.95%
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
d
10-Year Expectation 2.22%
20-Year Expectation 2.29%
30-Year Expectation 2.37%
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
e
10-Year Breakeven Inflation 2.26%
20-Year Breakeven Inflation 2.50%
30-Year Breakeven Inflation 2.26%
U.S. Department of the Treasury
f
10-Year Breakeven Inflation 2.07%
20-Year Breakeven Inflation 2.40%
30-Year Breakeven Inflation 2.21%
50-Year Breakeven Inflation 2.34%
100-Year Breakeven Inflation 2.44%
Social Security Trustees
g
Ultimate Intermediate Assumption 2.40%
a
End of the Fourth Quarter, 2022. Version 2023-02-09 by Gabriel, Roeder, Smith & Company.
b
The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2022 to 2032, Release Date: May 2022, Consumer Price Index (CPI-U),
Percentage Change from Year to Year, 5-Year Annual Average (2022 - 2026), 10-Year Annual Average (2022 -
2031).
c
Fourth Quarter 2022 Survey of Professional Forecasters, Release Date: November 14, 2022, Headline CPI,
Annualized Percentage Points, 5-Year Annual Average (2022 - 2026), 10-Year Annual Average (2022 - 2031).
d
Inflation Expectations, Model output date: December 1, 2022.
e
The breakeven inflation rate represents a measure of expected inflation derived from X-Year Treasury
Constant Maturity Securities and X-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Constant Maturity Securities. Observation
date: December, 2022.
f
The Treasury Breakeven Inflation (TBI) Curve, Monthly Average Rates, December, 2022.
g
The 2022 Annual Report of The Board of Trustees of The Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Federal
Disability Insurance Trust Funds, June 2, 2022, Long-range (75-year) assumptions, Intermediate, Consumer
Price Index (CPI-W), for 2026 and later.
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS B-8
In addition to the information in the chart, it is important to recognize that the Federal Reserve targets 2%
inflation as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index and is taking aggressive
action to bring inflation back to the 2% area.
Based on this information, we conclude that an inflation assumption of 2.5% is reasonable. We note that
in the Phase 1 report of the asset allocation study prepared by the Callan firm, the investment consultant
is basing its work on a 2.5% assumption for 10 years and a 2.35% assumption for 30 years.
Investment Return
ASOP 27 says the following specifically regarding the investment return assumption:
3.8.3 Measurement-Specific Considerations—The actuary should take into account
factors specific to each measurement in selecting an investment return assumption.
Such factors may include the following:
a. Investment Policy—The plan’s investment policy may include the
following: (i) the current allocation of the plan’s assets…
The actuarial valuation report contained no information about the plan’s investment policy or asset
allocation. Fortunately, we were able to locate the following on the Retirement System website.
There is often great temptation to look to the past to test investment return assumptions. We do find the
past interesting, and note the following chart from the valuation report.
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS B-9
Most actuaries, including as far as we know, the retained actuaries, agree that actuarial assumptions, and,
in particular, the investment return assumption must be forward looking. They are intended to be
estimates of how the future may unfold, not of what happened in the past.
Our comments are based on expected returns from a portfolio with the same asset allocation as that of
the retirement system. Because GRS is a benefits consulting firm, it does not develop or maintain its own
capital market expectations. Instead, we monitor forward-looking expectations developed by several
major investment consulting firms and maintain them in a tool that we refer to as the Capital Market
Assumption Modeler (“CMAM”).
Our 2022 CMAM is based upon capital market assumptions from the first quarter of 2022. We are aware
that capital market assumptions have generally increased since that time. Twelve Investment Firms in our
database provide Capital Market Assumptions over a 10-year horizon. Six of those firms also provide
Capital Market Assumptions over a 20-30-year horizon. The results over a 10-year horizon are in the chart
below.
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS B-10
Our tool indicates further that over a 20-30-year horizon, the 50
th
percentile of return is 6.86%. This
suggests to us that the assumed return is aggressive for a January 1, 2022 valuation. However, we are
aware that capital market assumptions have increased materially since our tool was last updated.
The Callan firm is currently preparing an asset allocation study for CMERS. The Phase 1 report of the study
reviews the current target and a number of alternatives. The median expectation for the current target
according to the study is 7.05% over 10 years and 7.55% over 30 years.
Given the high negative external cash flows and the fact that 74% of the liabilities are in pay status, we are
much more comfortable with a return expectation in the 7% area or below than we are with the current
7.5% assumption. In particular, if the retirement system is ever closed to new entrants, we would prefer
an assumption well below 7%.
We have done some very rudimentary modeling of the operation of a closed plan (not based on the
instant situation) which suggests that when a plan is closed the discount rate assumption should be below
the assumption applicable to a similarly situated open plan by an amount, perhaps on the order of 100 to
200 basis points. This is because in a closed plan, it is not reasonable to assume that the asset allocation
can be held constant indefinitely.
We note that Table 32 on page 55 of the valuation provides results at both 7% and 6.5%. This will allow
us, by interpolation, to estimate the effect of a lesser discount rate.
Probability of
exceeding
40th 50th 60th 7.50%
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
1 3.93% 4.90% 5.88% 25.21%
2 4.00% 5.02% 6.05% 27.32%
3 4.10% 5.11% 6.12% 27.66%
4 4.34% 5.26% 6.19% 27.24%
5 4.37% 5.41% 6.45% 30.68%
6 4.55% 5.44% 6.34% 28.20%
7 4.71% 5.80% 6.90% 34.79%
8 4.78% 5.82% 6.86% 34.25%
9 4.91% 5.96% 7.01% 35.61%
10 5.05% 6.04% 7.04% 35.59%
11 5.73% 6.72% 7.73% 42.24%
12 6.05% 7.18% 8.31% 47.12%
Average 4.71% 5.72% 6.74% 32.99%
Capital
Market
Assumption
Set (CMA)
Distribution of 10-Year Average Geometric
Net Nominal Return
GRS 2022 CMAM
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS B-11
Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA)
Given the inflation assumption of 2.5% an assumed cost of living adjustment for groups whose COLA is the
lesser of 3% and CPI is certainly reasonable.
Salary Increase Rates
In order to assess the salary increase assumption we reviewed the data summaries beginning on page 58
of the valuation report. We calculated the average pay by age bracket and then calculated the average
5-year increase for each bracket. We then compared those increases to the assumed increases shown
above after first subtracting 2.5% from the General increases and 4% from the Police and Fire Increases.
The results are shown on the following page.
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS B-12
This analysis is not as robust as an analysis that would be done in an experience study but it provides
enough information for general comments. The results suggest first of all that in terms of the pay
increases given, the 2.5% and 4% ultimate figures are reasonable based on the data. They are also
reasonable because they both equal or, in the case of Police and Fire, exceed the inflation assumption.
The figures do suggest that the assumed merit and longevity increases for general employees at the
younger ages may be too low. The retained actuary recommends changing to a service-based pay increase
assumption for both General and Police and Fire -- because of that we can’t directly compare the results
of the above analysis with theirs. However they do say that the change to the General salary scale will
increase costs, which is in line with our analysis.
Age Group No.Total PayrollAverage Actual Assumed
24 & Under 127$5,969,491$47,004 n/a n/a
25-29 271$18,205,467$67,179 7.40% 5.47%
30-34 338$24,483,501$72,436 1.52% 3.72%
35-39 443$36,589,568$82,595 2.66% 1.78%
40-44 411$35,740,931$86,961 1.04% 0.68%
45-49 422$38,218,238$90,565 0.82% 0.28%
50-54 306$28,707,585$93,816 0.71% 0.08%
55-59 89$8,115,146$91,181-0.57% 0.00%
60-64 23$2,036,405$88,539-0.59% 0.00%
65 & up 2 $216,196$108,0984.07% 0.00%
2432$198,282,528
Age Group No.Total PayrollAverage Actual Assumed
24 & Under 167$3,318,282$19,870 n/a n/a
25-29 582$16,407,702$28,192 7.25% 2.43%
30-34 826$28,332,634$34,301 4.00% 1.29%
35-39 892$36,743,789$41,193 3.73% 1.28%
40-44 980$42,845,126$43,720 1.20% 0.39%
45-49 941$41,991,544$44,624 0.41% 0.00%
50-54 1292$58,506,917$45,284 0.29% 0.00%
55-59 1246$58,582,323$47,016 0.75% 0.00%
60-64 841$37,963,024$45,140-0.81% 0.00%
65 & up 368$16,352,906$44,437-0.31% 0.00%
8135$341,044,247
Merit and Longevity Increase
Police and Fire Pay Increases
General Employees (Tier1+Tier2)
Merit and Longevity Increase
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS B-13
Demographic Assumptions
The following chart from the retained actuary’s experience study summarizes the experience for the
major decrement assumptions.
The associated recommendations are below.
We will discuss retiree mortality and retirement in depth. We reviewed the retained actuary’s PowerPoint
presentations on the other assumptions and find them to be generally reasonable.
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS B-14
Retiree Mortality
Given the high proportion of retirees in the total population, this is a very significant assumption. In
CMERS, there are 8,024 retired general members and 3,194 retired Police Officers and Firefighters. This
would mean that per year, there are 200 or so expected deaths in the entire retired population. The
number of expected deaths is therefore much too small to provide credible experience. The retained
actuary assesses the mortality experience by using the ratio of actual to expected deaths. Such ratios are
referred to as “A/E ratios.” An A/E ratio of 100% means that the mortality assumption is a perfect match
to experience in total. A ratio less than 100% means that the mortality table is overstating the number of
deaths and that it may be understating the liabilities. A ratio greater than 100% means that the mortality
table is understating the number of deaths and that it may be overstating the liabilities (i.e., the table is
conservative). The retained actuary recommends a change in the mortality table as follows. The
percentage figures refer to A/E Ratios.
In all cases, the retained actuary is moving the A/E ratio toward 100%, which is standard actuarial
practice. Taking the above at face value, we think that the mortality tables may be a good fit for general
members, but it is possible that they may understate liabilities for Police and Fire members. However, the
PowerPoint that we reviewed did not explain how the retained actuary accounted for the credibility of
the subject population. Given the small sample size, we would prefer just using a standard table, such as
the Wisconsin Projected Experience Table.
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS B-15
Retirement
Rates of retirement can have significant effects on liabilities. The retained actuary summarized retirement
experience in the Experience Study Report as follows.
These figures suggest that the current retirement rates significantly understate what is actually occurring
in the Police and Fire population. This seems to be a phenomenon among safety plans generally. We do
not know the extent to which it will be persistent, but we do agree with the retained actuary that the
assumed rates must be increased.
The chart below shows the increases that the retained actuary proposes.
We would typically like to see the safety rates move closer to 100% than the above indicates. However,
we recognize that the instant experience may not persist.
Actuarial Methods
We concur with the decision to retain the Entry Age Actuarial Cost Method as long as the plan remains
open. If the plan is closed we suggest that the projected unit credit method is more consistent with the
accrual of benefits in a closed plan than the entry age normal method.
General Employees CurrentProposed
Early Retirement45% 75%
Normal Retirement
Male 102% 96%
Female 120% 105%
Safety Employees
Police 188% 128%
Fire 152% 119%
A/E Ratios
Retirement Rates
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS B-16
Updated Liability Estimate
We have made an estimate shown below of the accrued and unfunded liability at 6.8%, the discount used
by WRS using the current demographic assumptions, and the experience study assumptions.
This is necessarily an approximation. We do not have data sufficient to make an estimate based on a
valuation. At the time of the valuation, the market value of the Combined Fund was $6,367,898 which, if
used in the above, would lower the estimated unfunded liability to $1.1 Billion.
We do think it is possible that some of the recommended assumptions may understate liabilities, so a
final estimate done with a full valuation might indicate somewhat greater liability.
In order to obtain fully accurate figures, it would be necessary to assemble data and run an actuarial
valuation.
Current Demographic Assumptions 6.50% 6.80% Est 7.00% 7.50%
Actuarial Value of Assets $5,673,797$5,673,797$5,673,797$5,673,797
Actuarial Accrued Liability $7,679,982$7,423,795$7,253,004$6,864,666
Unfunded Accrued liability $2,006,185$1,749,998$1,579,207$1,190,869
Estimated After Experience Study
Actuarial Value of Assets $5,673,797
Actuarial Accrued Liability $7,501,735
Unfunded Accrued liability $1,827,938
January 1, 2022 Valuation Combined Fund ($000)
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS B-17
Unfunded Liability – Milwaukee County
Executive Summary
We have reviewed the existing actuarial assumptions, the January 1, 2022 actuarial report, the material
presented in a PowerPoint that summarized the 2017 to 2021 experience study, and a report dated
January 13, 2023 that projects plan costs assuming that new hires go into the Wisconsin Retirement
System. The Experience Study PowerPoint was released in October of 2022. We think that the
demographic assumptions are generally reasonable, although left to our own devices we would use
different assumptions than the retained actuary for mortality and certain other decrement rates. We
think that the economic assumptions are also reasonable, but we would prefer a lower discount rate
assumption due to the large negative cash flows and the related fact that 81% of the liabilities are for
retirees. If inactive vested people are included, the ratio of non-active to total liabilities is 84%.
The January 1, 2022 Valuation prepared by the retained actuaries presents information from which we
were able to derive the following.
We made an estimate of liabilities at 6.8% discount and adjusted it approximately to reflect the revised
assumptions in the recent experience study. The result of that estimate is that the accrued liability would
become approximately $2.4 Billion with the new assumptions and 6.8% discount. The retiree liabilities
would increase to approximately $2.0 Billion. The Market Value of Assets at December 31, 2021 was
$1.970 Billion. This means that essentially all of the assets are needed to cover retiree liabilities and that
essentially all of the unfunded liability is for current active members. However, the November 2022 Flash
report indicates that the assets are $1.7 Billion so that as of that date, the assets are probably not
sufficient to cover the retiree liabilities.
If the plan is closed to new hires we would suggest that the investment consultant review the asset
allocation with that in mind and that the actuary reconsider the actuarial assumptions and the actuarial
cost method. We suggest that the Projected Unit Credit (PUC) method is more consistent with the accrual
of benefits in a closed plan than the entry age normal method. Since the vast majority of liabilities are for
retirees, the change to PUC would not have a large effect on liabilities. We would also prefer to express
the liabilities using a Low Default Risk Obligation Measure.
6.50% 7.50% 8.50%
Actuarial Value of Assets $1,763,496,322$1,763,496,322$1,763,496,322
Actuarial Accrued Liability$2,529,191,199$2,301,217,070$2,108,757,021
Unfunded accrued Liability $765,694,877$537,720,748$345,260,699
January 1, 2022 Valuation
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS B-18
Detailed Analysis of Assumptions and UAAL
The chart below is developed from the January 1, 2022 valuation report. It shows the manner in which the
retiree assets were invested at that time.
Information presented elsewhere in the actuarial report indicates that retiree liabilities valued at 7.5%
discount are $1,854,929,167 and therefore that they are 94% of total assets at market value as of
January 1, 2022. That is a much higher ratio than we typically see. The income statement below is based
upon data in the actuarial report.
Negative Net External Cash Flow at a -7.1% level in a plan whose liabilities are almost entirely in payment
status is a leading indicator of potential exhaustion of assets. Cash, Receivables Etc. Market Value% of Total
Cash $66,053,830
Receivables $3,817,689
Other $44,125,976
-Liabilities -$52,913,130
Subtotal $61,084,365 3.1%
Invested Assets
Fixed Income $315,088,22316.0%
Domestic and International Equities$765,832,25338.9%
Private Equity $319,281,06216.2%
Diversifying Strategies $360,756,89218.3%
Real Estate $148,324,710 7.5%
Subtotal $1,909,283,14096.9%
Total Assets $1,970,367,505100.0%
Plan Assets at December 31, 2021 Net Assets January 1, 2021 $1,792,916,838
Contribution Income
Employer $62,113,812
Member $13,390,188
Total $75,504,000
Net Investment Return $304,173,201
Benefit Payments
Retiree Benefits $199,326,814
Contribution Refunds $2,899,720
Total $202,226,534
Net External Cash Flow $75,504,000
Net Assets December 31, 2021 $1,970,367,505
Contributions as a % of Assets 4.2%
Benefit Payaments as a % of Assets 11.3%
Net External Cash Flow as a % of Assets -7.1%
Income Statement
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS B-19
Economic Assumptions
In this section of the report, we present our analysis of the Economic and Demographic Assumptions
Studies that the retained actuary used to calculate the unfunded liability of the retirement system. The
assumptions are the basis (i.e., rationale) for the calculation of the actuarial accrued liability, and,
therefore of the unfunded liability. Actuarial assumptions must comply with the following:
(1) Actuarial Standards of Practice (ASOP) No. 27, Selection of Economic Assumptions for Measuring
Pension Obligations; and
(2) ASOP No. 35, Selection of Demographic and Other Noneconomic Assumptions for Measuring
Pension Obligations.
The items reviewed in connection with this part of our analysis include and are limited to:
▪ An Actuarial Valuation of the retirement system as of January 1, 2022 and dated May 16, 2022
signed by Matthew Strom and Geoff Bridges of the Segal Company.
▪ An Actuarial Experience Study covering the period 2017-2021 dated October, 2022 also signed by
Matthew Strom and Geoff Bridges of the Segal Company.
▪ An asset liability study performed by Segal Marco Advisors (SMA) date October 8, 2020.
▪ A letter dated January 13, 2023 from Geoff Bridges to Cynthia Pahl that describes scenarios of
Projected costs for the Milwaukee County ERS under various circumstances.
The actuarial assumptions setting process is a combination of art and science. An actuary’s professional
judgment is a key component in the assumption setting process. Different actuarial consulting firms, and
different actuaries within the same firm, may have significantly different thoughts on how some
assumptions should be developed. Our analysis will not focus on minor differences in judgment items, but
rather only on issues that could materially affect the assessment of the unfunded actuarial accrued
liability.
Economic Assumptions
The economic assumptions used in the January 2022 valuation were as follows:
▪ Inflation: 2.5%
▪ Investment Return: 7.5%
▪ Cost of Living Adjustments: No assumption is needed. The retiree cost of living adjustments are
fixed at 2% of the original amount
▪ Salary Increase Rates: Table by Age and Occupation
▪ Rate of increase of UAAL payments: 1.75%
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS B-20
Peer Comparison
The charts below are taken from the NASRA March 2022 Issue Brief “Public Pension Plan Investment
Return Assumptions”.
Actuarial assumptions cannot and should not be judged based upon a peer comparison, but assumptions
deviating materially from the peer universe may require special scrutiny. The charts do suggest that the
2.5% inflation assumption is mainstream, but they also suggest that the 7.5% investment return
assumption is in the minority.
Guidance regarding the selection of economic assumptions for measuring pension obligations is provided
by ASOP No. 27. The standard requires that the selected economic assumptions be consistent with each
other. That is, the selection of the investment return assumption should be consistent with the selection
of the wage inflation and price inflation assumptions.
ASOP No. 27 (applicable to valuation dates on or after August 1, 2021) defines a reasonable economic
assumption as an assumption that has the following characteristics:
(a) It is appropriate for the purpose of the measurement;
(b) It reflects the actuary’s professional judgment;
(c) It considers historical and current economic data that is relevant as of the measurement date;
(d) It reflects the actuary’s estimate of future experience, the actuary’s observation of the estimates
inherent in market data (if any), or a combination thereof; and
(e) It has no significant bias (i.e., it is not significantly optimistic or pessimistic), except when
provisions for adverse deviation or plan provisions that are difficult to measure are included and
disclosed or when alternative assumptions are used for the assessment of risk.
In selecting economic assumptions, the actuary relies on many different experts (e.g., investment
consultants) for data and analysis. However, as required by ASOP No. 27, “When the actuary is
responsible for selecting or giving advice on selecting economic assumptions within the scope of this
standard, the actuary may incorporate the views of experts but the selection or advice should reflect the
actuary’s professional judgment.”
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS B-21
Price Inflation
Price inflation underlies both the wage inflation and investment return assumptions.
Sources of data that GRS generally consider in the analysis of the price inflation assumption include:
(1) Inflation expectations of various Federal Reserve Banks (e.g., Cleveland, St. Louis)
(2) Philadelphia Federal Reserve quarterly survey of Society of Professional Forecasters
(3) Comparison of Treasury yields and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS)
(4) Future expectations of the plan’s investment consultant and other investment consultants that
GRS monitors
Presented on the following page are forward-looking price inflation forecasts that GRS monitors to assist
in developing the price inflation assumption.
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS B-22
Forward-Looking Price Inflation Forecasts
a
Congressional Budget Office
b
5-Year Annual Average 3.23%
10-Year Annual Average 2.81%
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
c
5-Year Annual Average 3.75%
10-Year Annual Average 2.95%
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
d
10-Year Expectation 2.22%
20-Year Expectation 2.29%
30-Year Expectation 2.37%
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
e
10-Year Breakeven Inflation 2.26%
20-Year Breakeven Inflation 2.50%
30-Year Breakeven Inflation 2.26%
U.S. Department of the Treasury
f
10-Year Breakeven Inflation 2.07%
20-Year Breakeven Inflation 2.40%
30-Year Breakeven Inflation 2.21%
50-Year Breakeven Inflation 2.34%
100-Year Breakeven Inflation 2.44%
Social Security Trustees
g
Ultimate Intermediate Assumption 2.40%
a
End of the Fourth Quarter, 2022. Version 2023-02-09 by Gabriel, Roeder, Smith & Company.
b
The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2022 to 2032, Release Date: May 2022, Consumer Price Index (CPI-U),
Percentage Change from Year to Year, 5-Year Annual Average (2022 - 2026), 10-Year Annual Average (2022 -
2031).
c
Fourth Quarter 2022 Survey of Professional Forecasters, Release Date: November 14, 2022, Headline CPI,
Annualized Percentage Points, 5-Year Annual Average (2022 - 2026), 10-Year Annual Average (2022 - 2031).
d
Inflation Expectations, Model output date: December 1, 2022.
e
The breakeven inflation rate represents a measure of expected inflation derived from X-Year Treasury
Constant Maturity Securities and X-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Constant Maturity Securities. Observation
date: December, 2022.
f
The Treasury Breakeven Inflation (TBI) Curve, Monthly Average Rates, December, 2022.
g
The 2022 Annual Report of The Board of Trustees of The Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Federal
Disability Insurance Trust Funds, June 2, 2022, Long-range (75-year) assumptions, Intermediate, Consumer
Price Index (CPI-W), for 2026 and later.
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS B-23
In addition to the information in the chart, it is important to recognize that the Federal Reserve targets 2%
inflation as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index and is taking aggressive
action to bring inflation back to the 2% area.
Based on this information, we conclude that an inflation assumption of 2.5% is reasonable. We note that
in the Phase 1 report of the asset allocation study prepared by Segal Marco Advisers, the investment
consultant is basing its work on a 2.0% assumption. Since that study was performed two years ago, it is
possible that they may have raised their inflation outlook since then.
Investment Return
ASOP 27 says the following specifically regarding the investment return assumption:
3.8.3 Measurement-Specific Considerations—The actuary should take into account
factors specific to each measurement in selecting an investment return assumption.
Such factors may include the following:
b. Investment Policy—The plan’s investment policy may include the following:
(i) the current allocation of the plan’s assets…
The actuarial valuation report contains the following information on the asset allocation as of
December 31, 2021.
There is often great temptation to look to the past to test investment return assumptions. We do find the
past interesting. We derived the chart below from information in the valuation report.
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS B-24
Development of Market Value Net Return 2008 to 2021
Year Beginning Assets Net Return Ending Assets Average Assets ROR
2008 $1,665,511,165 -$357,462,777 $1,595,610,970 $1,809,292,456 -19.8%
2009 $1,595,610,970 $313,462,671 $1,822,539,985 $1,552,344,142 20.2%
2010 $1,822,539,985 $203,770,758 $1,895,166,943 $1,756,968,085 11.6%
2011 $1,895,166,943 $4,039,718 $1,742,106,887 $1,816,617,056 0.2%
2012 $1,742,106,887 $178,833,104 $1,768,434,628 $1,665,854,206 10.7%
2013 $1,768,434,628 $253,385,088 $1,879,234,430 $1,697,141,985 14.9%
2014 $1,879,234,430 $92,984,293 $1,822,579,695 $1,804,414,916 5.2%
2015 $1,822,579,695 $35,190,400 $1,716,151,763 $1,751,770,529 2.0%
2016 $1,716,151,763 $106,649,356 $1,671,682,331 $1,640,592,369 6.5%
2017 $1,671,682,331 $249,003,287 $1,786,408,565 $1,604,543,805 15.5%
2018 $1,786,408,565 -$38,060,799 $1,618,310,314 $1,721,389,839 -2.2%
2019 $1,618,310,314 $245,570,699 $1,738,628,225 $1,555,683,920 15.8%
2020 $1,738,628,225 $179,567,176 $1,792,916,838 $1,675,988,944 10.7%
2021 $1,792,916,838 $304,173,201 $1,970,367,505 $1,729,555,571 17.6%
Most actuaries, including as far as we know, the retained actuaries, agree that actuarial assumptions, and,
in particular, the investment return assumption must be forward looking. They are intended to be
estimates of how the future may unfold, not what happened in the past.
Our comments are based on expected returns from a portfolio with the same asset allocation as the
retirement system. Because GRS is a benefits consulting firm, it does not develop or maintain its own
capital market expectations. Instead, we monitor forward-looking expectations developed by several
major investment consulting firms and maintain them in a tool that we refer to as the Capital Market
Assumption Modeler (“CMAM”).
Our 2022 CMAM is based upon capital market assumptions from the first quarter of 2022. We are aware
that capital market assumptions have generally increased since that time. Twelve Investment Firms in our
database provide Capital Market Assumptions over a 10-year horizon. Six of those firms also provide
Capital Market Assumptions over a 20-30-year horizon. The results over a 10-year horizon are in the chart
on the following page.
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS B-25
Our tool indicates further that over a 20-30-year horizon, the 50
th
percentile of return is 7.16%. This
suggests to us that the 7.5% assumed return is aggressive for a January 1, 2022 valuation. However, we
are aware that capital market assumptions have increased materially since our tool was last updated.
In the October, 2020 ALM study, Segal Marco Advisors posited a 6.4% geometric return over 10 years and
a 7.0% geometric return over 20 years. These figures do not correspond exactly to ours because we are
using January 2022 Capital Market Assumptions and SMA is using Capital Market Assumptions from 2020.
Even though the correspondence is not exact, both sets of data suggest that the 7.5% return is aggressive.
Given the high negative external cash flows and the fact that 81% of the liabilities are in pay status, we are
much more comfortable with a return expectation in the 7% area or below than we are with the current
7.5% assumption. In the experience study, the retained actuary recommends a reduction in the
investment return to 7%. In our judgment, this is not unreasonable, but given the heavy concentration of
retiree liabilities we would prefer an assumption even lower. In particular, if the retirement system is ever
closed to new entrants, we would prefer an assumption well below 7%.
We have done some very rudimentary modeling of the operation of a closed plan (not based on the
instant situation) which suggests that when a plan is closed the discount rate assumption should be below
the assumption applicable to a similarly situated open plan by an amount, perhaps on the order of 100 to
200 basis points. This is because in a closed plan, it is not reasonable to assume that the asset allocation
can be held constant indefinitely.
We note that Exhibit 1 on page 43 to 45 of the valuation provides information that allows us to derive
results at 6.5%. This will allow us, by interpolation, to estimate the effect of a lesser discount rate.
Probability of
exceeding
40th 50th 60th 7.50%
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
1 4.06% 5.04% 6.02% 26.43%
2 4.38% 5.43% 6.50% 31.23%
3 4.52% 5.46% 6.42% 29.56%
4 4.43% 5.47% 6.53% 31.39%
5 4.68% 5.59% 6.50% 29.79%
6 4.86% 5.87% 6.89% 34.27%
7 4.81% 5.92% 7.04% 36.02%
8 5.02% 6.07% 7.13% 36.63%
9 5.15% 6.22% 7.30% 38.25%
10 5.35% 6.36% 7.37% 38.76%
11 5.88% 6.91% 7.95% 44.24%
12 6.51% 7.67% 8.84% 51.47%
Average 4.97% 6.00% 7.04% 35.67%
GRS 2022 CMAM
Capital
Market
Assumption
Set (CMA)
Distribution of 10-Year Average Geometric
Net Nominal Return
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS B-26
Salary Increase Rates
The assumed pay increase rates below are taken from a chart on page 51 of the actuarial valuation.
In order to assess the salary increase assumption we reviewed the data summaries beginning on page 65
of the valuation report. We displayed the average pay by age bracket and then calculated the average
5-year increase for each bracket. We then compared those increases to the assumed increases shown
above after first subtracting 2.5% from the actuarial assumptions.
This analysis is not as robust as an analysis that was done in the experience study but it provides enough
information for general comments. The results suggest the reasonableness of the current assumption. We
note that in the experience study, the retained actuary recommends only minor changes to the salary
scale assumption for general employees.
The sample size for Deputy Sheriffs and elected officials is too small for an analysis such as we did above
to be meaningful. We reviewed the sections of the experience study related to Deputy Sheriffs and
elected officials related to the salary scale assumption and find the results to be reasonable based upon
the data presented. Age GroupNo.Average PayActual Assumed
24 & Under98 $43,756 n/a 8.00%
25-29 241 $47,568 1.68% 3.50%
30-34 365 $53,006 2.19% 2.50%
35-39 377 $57,733 1.72% 1.70%
40-44 395 $62,664 1.65% 1.50%
45-49 428 $63,986 0.42% 0.50%
50-54 437 $64,732 0.23% 0.50%
55-59 358 $63,694 -0.32% 0.50%
60-64 249 $63,569 -0.04% 0.50%
65 & up105 $64,481 0.29% 0.50%
3053
Merit and Longevity Increase
General Employees
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS B-27
Demographic Assumptions
The Following chart from the retained actuary’s experience study shows the current and proposed
demographic assumptions and the effect of the changes on contribution rates.
We will discuss retiree mortality and retirement in depth. We reviewed the retained actuary’s
PowerPoints on the other assumptions and find them to be generally reasonable.
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS B-28
Retiree Mortality
Given the high proportion of retirees in the total population, this is a very significant assumption. In the
ERS, there are 7,829 retirees including beneficiaries. This would mean that per year, there are 100 to 200
or so expected deaths in the entire retired population. The number of expected deaths is too small to
provide fully credible experience. The retained actuary assesses the mortality experience by using the
ratio of actual to expected deaths and then uses statistical techniques to assign a credibility factor to the
experience. Such ratios are referred to as “A/E ratios.” An A/E ratio of 100% means that the mortality
assumption is a perfect match to experience in total. A ratio less than 100% means that the mortality
table is overstating the number of deaths and that it may be understating the liabilities. A ratio greater
than 100% means that the mortality table is understating the number of deaths and that it may be
overstating the liabilities (i.e., the table is conservative). The retained actuary recommends a change in
the mortality table for healthy retirees as follows.
The A/E ratios upon which the change is based are shown below:
Generally, the retained actuary is moving the A/E ratio toward 100%, which is standard actuarial practice.
The results for female deputies look odd, but that is a result of the very small sample size. We think these
results are reasonable. Healthy Retiree MortalityCurrentProposedCurrentProposed
Males 97% 101% 86% 100%
Females 104% 105% 180% 218%
Actual to Expected Ratio (A/E)
General Sheriff Deputies
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS B-29
Other Demographic Assumptions
Results for the other demographic assumptions, which do include disabled and beneficiary mortality, are
summarized below.
The sample size for disabled retiree and for beneficiary mortality is typically small. Although the
recommendations do not move in the direction we would expect (toward 100%) there could be good
reasons for that. For active and inactive retirement, disability retirement and terminations, the
recommendations move the A/E ratios in the expected direction and we think the results are reasonable.
Actuarial Methods
We concur with the decision to retain the Entry Age Actuarial Cost Method as long as the plan remains
open. If the plan is closed we suggest that the projected unit credit method is more consistent with the
accrual of benefits in a closed plan than the entry age normal method.
Disabled Retiree MortalityCurrentProposedCurrentProposed
Males 137% 140% 25% 102%
Females 84% 85% 146% 419%
Beneficiary Mortality
Males 159% 144% Same Same
Females 94% 105% Same Same
Active Retirements
Backdrop Eligible 151% 113% n/a n/a
Not Backdrop Eligible212% 140% 149% 127%
Inactive Retirements 47% 104% Same Same
Termination
Select Rates
Year 1 118% 110% n/a n/a
Year 2 87% 91% n/a n/a
Year 3 94% 96% n/a n/a
Year 4 105% 105% n/a n/a
Year 5 140% 119% n/a n/a
Ultimate Rates 111% 108% 101% 101%
Disability Retirement 75% 93% 580% 146%
General Sheriff Deputies
Actual to Expected Ratio (A/E) Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS B-30
Updated Liability Estimate
We have made an estimate shown below of the accrued and unfunded liability at three different discount
rates including 6.80%, the discount used by WRS, and using the experience study assumptions.
The Market Value of Assets at December 31, 2021 was $1.970 Billion. This means that essentially all of the
assets are needed to cover retiree liabilities and that essentially all of the unfunded liability is for current
active members. However, the November 2022 Flash report indicates that the assets are $1.7 Billion as of
that time, slightly less than the actuarial value in the above chart, so that as of November, 2022, the
assets are probably not sufficient to cover the retiree liabilities.
These estimates are necessarily approximations. We do not have data sufficient to make an estimate
based on a valuation.
In order to obtain fully accurate figures, it would be necessary to assemble data and run an actuarial
valuation. 6.50% 6.80% 7.00%
$1,763,496,322 $1,763,496,322 $1,763,496,322
$2,503,272,839 $2,432,669,136 $2,385,600,000
Actuarial Value of Assets
Actuarial Accrued Liability
Unfunded Accrued Liability$739,776,517 $669,172,814 $622,103,678
Estimated Retiree Liabilities$2,017,966,561 $1,961,050,707 $1,923,106,804
January 1, 2022 Valuation After Experience Study
SECTION C
REVIEW OF SOFT CLOSE PROJECTIONS
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS C-1
Milwaukee City – Soft Close Projections
Cavanaugh Macdonald (CavMac) performed projections in a DRAFT letter dated January 13, 2023. As
stated in their letter, the projections covered the following change in plan provisions:
▪ CMERS is closed to all new hires. Current members of CMERS continue to accrue benefits
under CMERS.
▪ All future employees of the City of Milwaukee, including Police and Fire, and other
participating employers move to WRS after January 1, 2023.
▪ Contributions are made to the retirement system in which the member participates.
CavMac developed what they termed the “All-in” Lump sum cost of closing the Milwaukee Plan as of
January 1, 2023 as follows (in $ Millions):
7.50% 7.00% 6.80%
CMERS
Projected Benefit Payments 7,763$ 8,277$ 8,500$
Projected Administrative Expenses 126 138 143
Projected Employee Contributions (282) (292) (296)
January 1, 2023 Estimated Market Value(5,478)(5,478) (5,478)
Total CMERS Employee "All in" Cost 2,129$ 2,645$ 2,869$
WRS
Projected Employer Contributions 842$ 964$ 1,020$
Total
"All-in" Cost 2,971$ 3,609$ 3,889$
Present Value as of
January 1, 2023 of:
Investment Return Assumption
The “All-in” lump sum cost can be viewed as a type of liability similar to that developed by the
Aggregate Cost Method – which calculates the Total Present Value of Benefits (PVFB) and then the
difference between the PVFB and the employer assets (adjusted for items such as expenses and
future contributions) is funded for over a specific period of time. While this is an acceptable
approach for determining plan costs, comparison to other systems can be difficult since there is no
‘normal cost’ component as developed under the traditional Entry Age Normal Cost Method.
After developing this “all in” cost, CavMac provided 30-year projections for the proposed scenario
showing:
▪ “All in” cost amortized over 30 and 20 year periods.
▪ New hire cost under WRS.
▪ The Total of the “All in” and New Hire cost above.
▪ Results at 7.5%, 7.0%, 6.8% interest rate assumptions using both 30- and 20-year
amortization.
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS C-2
Milwaukee City – Soft Close Projection
The cost results shown appear to be internally consistent and form an acceptable approach. We
note, however, there was no baseline scenario shown in the projections to compare results. CavMac
stated in their report “We believe this comparison would have limited value at this time…but would
be happy to provide upon request”. While we understand the rationale as stated, it can be difficult
for an outside reader to come to conclusions regarding the cost impact without a baseline scenario.
CavMac also noted that the proposed change to close CMERS to new members significantly increases
the funding risk. We agree with this point and added additional commentary in the Executive
Summary regarding closed plan risk. Essentially, we think that the increasing negative cash flows
associated with a closed plan will eventually necessitate a shift to less risky more liquid investments
which will lower the return potential of the portfolio and increase contribution requirements beyond
that shown in the study. This would be a matter for the investment consultant to opine on.
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS C-3
Milwaukee County – Soft Close Projections
The Segal Company (Segal) performed projections in a letter dated January 13, 2023. The letter
defined “ERS” as the Employees’ Retirement System of the County of Milwaukee, and “WRS” as the
Wisconsin Retirement System. As stated in their letter, the projections covered 5 scenarios:
▪ Scenario 1 (Baseline). Projection assumes the current valuation investment return of 7.5% is
maintained. New employees continue to participate in ERS.
▪ Scenario 2 (Baseline + New Employees to WRS) – Projection assumes the current valuation
investment return assumption of 7.5% is maintained. New employees hired on or after
January 1, 2024 become WRS members when hired.
▪ Scenario 3 (Updated 7.0% Investment Return Assumption) – Projection assumes the valuation
investment return assumption is reduced to 7.00% effective January 1, 2023. New employees
continue to participate in ERS.
▪ Scenario 4 (Updated 7.0% Investment Return Assumption + New Employees to WRS) –
Projection assumes the valuation investment return assumption is reduced to 7.0% effective
January 1, 2023. New employees hired on or after January 1, 2024 become WRS members
when hired.
▪ Scenario 5 (Updated 6.8% Investment Return Assumption + New Employees to WRS) –
Projection assumes the valuation investment return assumption is reduced to 6.80% effective
January 1, 2023. New employees hired on or after January 1, 2024 become WRS members
when hired. Legacy ERS employees member contribution rate is set to ½ of the normal cost
effective January 1, 2024.
For each scenario, Segal provided 20-year projected results including ERS closed pay, new member
pay, ERS normal cost, ERS member contribution rate, ERS UAAL payment, ERS Total UAAL, ERS
employer contribution, WRS employer contribution and WRS member contribution. This additional
detail greatly aided our review of the various components of the calculations. The cost results shown
appear to be internally consistent and form an acceptable approach. We note, however, that the
UAAL calculation was not clearly defined in the projection -- the UAAL amounts shown at the
beginning of the projection (2023) are as follows:
▪ $474.47 million at 7.5% (scenarios 1 and 2)
▪ $581.67 million at 7.0% (scenarios 3 and 4)
▪ $627.19 million at 6.8% (scenario 5)
From the January 1, 2022 valuation report, the UAAL amounts are:
▪ $537.7 million at 7.5% on Actuarial Value of Assets Basis
▪ $330.9 million at 7.5% on Market Value Basis
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS C-4
Milwaukee County – Soft Close Projections
We note that the January 1, 2022 results were produced before experience study results and so it is
possible that the projection results were based on new estimates of assumptions and estimated
assets as of January 1, 2023. However, Segal’s January 13 letter also states that Scenario 1 is
effectively the January 1, 2022 valuation baseline projection. It would have been helpful to add
additional detail on how the UAAL was calculated, whether it was based on actuarial or market value
and whether it included the unfavorable investment performance during 2022. Based on the starting
UAAL measure of $474.47 million used in the projections, the change due to the discount rate
seemed reasonable. It should also be noted that on Page 4 of the Segal document, the starting
member contribution rate for Scenario 5 was 7.4%. However, the related Scenario 5 detail page
shows a member rate of 5.2% - perhaps one of these figures is a typo.
The summary scenarios shown on page 3 illustrate that:
▪ Closing the system to new hires (with no change in investment return) increases the overall
cost.
▪ Lowering the investment return assumption to 7.0% or 6.8% will also increase overall cost.
▪ ERS UAAL is paid off after 10 years under the current 7.5% investment return assumption.
The increase in cost mentioned in the first bullet point above is probably due at least in part to the
fact that WRS contributions are made based upon a 6.8% investment return assumption which is
below the assumption made in the soft close projections. We don’t think this should be viewed as a
real effect because there is no reason to assume that Milwaukee County investment performance will
consistently exceed that of the SWIB. We do agree, however, that the closure will increase
contribution requirements, but for a different reason stated below.
Page 5 of the study also had a section titled “Discussion of Risk”. While this is important for the
intended user to understand risk, this section was somewhat generic and did not address specific
risks that can occur due to plan closure. Essentially, we think that the increasing negative cash flows
associated with a closed plan will eventually necessitate a shift to less risky more liquid investments
which will lower the return potential of the portfolio and increase contribution requirements beyond
that shown in the study. This would be a matter for the investment consultant to opine on.
Summary Conclusions
In summary, the projections for both Milwaukee City and Milwaukee County appear to be reasonable
approaches for determining the long-term cost. But they do ignore the effect of increasing negative
cash flows on the investment program. We think there should be a serious discussion with the
investment consultants regarding this matter and that de-risking and risk transfer should be explored.
Additional detail on how the initial UAAL was developed would have been helpful. We note that the
approaches are very different regarding cost method, amortization methods, scenarios, metrics, etc.
We consolidated these into a single approach for both Milwaukee City and Milwaukee County in the
next section of this report.
SECTION D
COMPARISON CHARTS AND LEGISLATIVE FISCAL BUREAU
REQUESTED INFORMATION
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS D-1
Comparison of Scenarios
As noted in Section C, the soft close projections provided for Milwaukee City and Milwaukee County
had numerous differences in methodology. In order to have a consistent basis for comparison across
all scenarios, we have summarized these differences (along the methodology used by GRS) in the
chart below.
Milwaukee Milwaukee Current
City County Study
(CavMac) (Segal) (GRS)
Liability Present Value of Projected Benefits (PVFB)Entry Age Actuarial Accrued Liability (AAL)Entry Age Actuarial Accrued Liability (AAL)
Assets Value UsedMarket Value (MV) Actuarial Value Assets (AVA) Market Value (MV)
UAAL DefinitionPVFB + Expenses - EE cont - MV AAL - AVA AAL - MV
Amortization of UAAL30, 20 years 10 years 30, 20, 10 Years
Projection Start DateJanuary 1, 2023 January 1, 2023 January 1, 2024
Wage Inflation 3.0% 3.5% 3.0%
Scenarios Proposed Scenario only with different 5 Scenarios (including baseline) Baseline, Proposed Change at 7.5%
Amortization Periods Proposed Change at 6.8%
Projection MetricsTotal Cost, ERS and WRS breakout Normal Cost, Member Rate, UAAL PaymentERS Amortization, ERS ER Normal Cost,
Total Cost, ERS and WRS breakoutsERS, EE Cont, WRS EE+ER Cont
As shown above, we have chosen to define the Unfunded Liability as the Actuarial Accrued Liability
(on an entry age basis) less the Market Value of Asset as of January 1, 2024. We would have preferred
the Projected Unit Credit basis for theoretical reasons, but the entry age values were more readily
available than the Projected Unit Credit values and we don’t think the difference between the two
approaches would be large enough to affect decisions. The charts below provide the development of
these estimated figures based on January 1, 2022 values and rolled forward to January 1, 2024. For
Milwaukee City, we used the estimated Market Value as of January 1, 2023 (provided by CavMac) and
rolled this forward with 7.5% and 6.8% for 2023. For Milwaukee County, we used the estimated
Market Value as of November 30, 2022 (provided by the Investment Consultant for Milwaukee
County) as a proxy for the Market Value as of January 1, 2023 and rolled this amount forward with
7.5% and 6.8% for 2023. For Contributions, Benefit Payments and Normal Cost, we estimated these
amounts based on the 2022 actuarial valuations for Milwaukee City and Milwaukee County.
Note, this March 31, 2023 version of the report includes requested 5.8% interest rate Scenarios
throughout Section D.
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS D-2
UAAL Estimates for Milwaukee City Market ActuarialUnfunded
Value LiabilityLiability
January 1, 2022 $6,431,356$6,864,666$433,310
Contributions 122,000 (122,000)
Benefit Payments (450,000) (450,000) -
Normal Cost 90,000 90,000
Interest (625,356) 501,350 1,126,706
January 1, 2023 5,478,000 7,006,016 1,528,016
Contributions 122,000 (122,000)
Benefit Payments (450,000) (450,000) -
Normal Cost 90,000 90,000
Interest 398,550 511,951 113,401
January 1, 2024 5,548,550 $7,157,967$1,609,417
Market ActuarialUnfunded
Value LiabilityLiability
January 1, 2022 $6,431,356$7,501,735$1,070,379
Contributions 122,000 (122,000)
Benefit Payments (450,000) (450,000) -
Normal Cost 105,300 105,300
Interest (625,356) 498,398 1,123,754
January 1, 2023 5,478,000 7,655,433 2,177,433
Contributions 122,000 (122,000)
Benefit Payments (450,000) (450,000) -
Normal Cost 105,300 105,300
Interest 361,352 508,850 147,498
January 1, 2024 5,511,352 $7,819,583$2,308,231
Market ActuarialUnfunded
Value LiabilityLiability
January 1, 2022 $6,431,356$8,505,716$2,074,360
Contributions 122,000 (122,000)
Benefit Payments (450,000) (450,000) -
Normal Cost 131,625 131,625
Interest (625,356) 484,099 1,109,455
January 1, 2023 5,478,000 8,671,440 3,193,440
Contributions 122,000 (122,000)
Benefit Payments (450,000) (450,000) -
Normal Cost 131,625 131,625
Interest 308,212 493,711 185,499
January 1, 2024 5,458,212 $8,846,775$3,388,563
Milwaukee City at 7.5% (Thousands)
Milwaukee City at 6.8% (Thousands)
Milwaukee City at 5.8% (Thousands)
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS D-3
UAAL estimates for Milwaukee County Market ActuarialUnfunded
Value LiabilityLiability
January 1, 2022 $1,970,367$2,301,217$330,850
Contributions 75,000 (75,000)
Benefit Payments (200,000) (200,000) -
Normal Cost 18,000 18,000
Interest (145,367) 165,766 311,133
January 1, 2023 1,700,000 2,284,983 584,983
Contributions 75,000 (75,000)
Benefit Payments (200,000) (200,000) -
Normal Cost 18,000 18,000
Interest 122,813 164,549 41,736
January 1, 2024 1,697,813 $2,267,532$569,720
Market ActuarialUnfunded
Value LiabilityLiability
January 1, 2022 $1,970,367$2,432,669$462,302
Contributions 75,000 (75,000)
Benefit Payments (200,000) (200,000) -
Normal Cost 21,060 21,060
Interest (145,367) 159,338 304,705
January 1, 2023 1,700,000 2,413,067 713,067
Contributions 75,000 (75,000)
Benefit Payments (200,000) (200,000) -
Normal Cost 21,060 21,060
Interest 111,350 158,005 46,655
January 1, 2024 1,686,350 $2,392,131$705,781
Market ActuarialUnfunded
Value LiabilityLiability
January 1, 2022 $1,970,367$2,715,230$744,863
Contributions 75,000 (75,000)
Benefit Payments (200,000) (200,000) -
Normal Cost 26,325 26,325
Interest (145,367) 152,447 297,814
January 1, 2023 1,700,000 2,694,002 994,002
Contributions 75,000 (75,000)
Benefit Payments (200,000) (200,000) -
Normal Cost 26,325 26,325
Interest 94,975 151,216 56,241
January 1, 2024 1,669,975 $2,671,542$1,001,567
Milwaukee County at 7.5% (Thousands)
Milwaukee County at 6.8% (Thousands)
Milwaukee County at 5.8% (Thousands)
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS D-4
Comparison of Scenarios
As requested by the Legislative Fiscal Bureau, we developed the following figures for each of the
scenarios:
1. An amortization schedule of UAAL payments (for the Milwaukee plans)
2. Projected annual normal cost payments (for the Milwaukee plans)
3. Projected annual employee contributions (for the Milwaukee plans)
4. Projected annual employer and employee WRS contributions
In addition, we also added the following items to aid in the comparison:
5. Total Employer Cost (in dollars) – this is combined cost for both Milwaukee existing
employees and WRS new hires
6. Total Employer Cost (as a % of payroll) – this is based on combined payroll for both Milwaukee
existing employees and WRS new hires
7. Total Employee Cost (as a % of payroll) – this is based on combined payroll for both
Milwaukee existing employees and WRS new hires
8. Total Normal Cost (as a % of payroll) – this will be a blend of the total normal cost for both
Milwaukee existing employees and WRS new hires
These calculations were then performed for both Milwaukee City and County plans for the following
scenarios:
▪ Scenario 1a – Baseline results (Milwaukee status quo) with 30-year amortization of UAAL
▪ Scenario 2a – Milwaukee new hires join WRS after 1/24, 7.5% rate of return for Milwaukee
plans with 30-year amortization of UAAL
▪ Scenario 3a – Milwaukee new hires join WRS after 1/24, 6.8% rate of return for Milwaukee
plans with 30-year amortization of UAAL
▪ Scenario 4a – Milwaukee new hires join WRS after 1/24, 5.8% rate of return for Milwaukee
plans with 30-year amortization of UAAL
▪ Scenario 1b – Baseline results (Milwaukee status quo) with 20-year amortization of UAAL
▪ Scenario 2b – Milwaukee new hires join WRS after 1/24, 7.5% rate of return for Milwaukee
plans with 20-year amortization of UAAL
▪ Scenario 3b – Milwaukee new hires join WRS after 1/24, 6.8% rate of return for Milwaukee
plans with 20-year amortization of UAAL
▪ Scenario 4b – Milwaukee new hires join WRS after 1/24, 5.8% rate of return for Milwaukee
plans with 20-year amortization of UAAL
▪ Scenario 1c – Baseline results (Milwaukee status quo) with 10-year amortization of UAAL
▪ Scenario 2c – Milwaukee new hires join WRS after 1/24, 7.5% rate of return for Milwaukee
plans with 10-year amortization of UAAL
▪ Scenario 3c – Milwaukee new hires join WRS after 1/24, 6.8% rate of return for Milwaukee
plans with 10-year amortization of UAAL
▪ Scenario 4c – Milwaukee new hires join WRS after 1/24, 5.8% rate of return for Milwaukee
plans with 10-year amortization of UAAL
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS D-5
The UAAL payments were based on the level dollar amortization method of the Total Unfunded
Actuarial Liability. As such, the figures shown for the Baseline scenario (status quo) ignore the
current funding method for Milwaukee City and Milwaukee County. This was done for comparison
purposes only.
Comparison of Scenarios
Normal Cost and Employee Contribution rates were assumed to be as follows:
Milwaukee City
GeneralPolicemen Firemen General Policemen Firemen General Policemen Firemen
Total Normal Cost9.43% 25.67% 28.20% 11.00% 30.00% 33.00% 13.75% 37.50% 41.25%
Member Rate 4.80% 7.00% 7.00% 4.80% 7.00% 7.00% 4.80% 7.00% 7.00%
Milwaukee County
GeneralPublic SafetyGeneralPublic SafetyGeneral Public Safety
Total Normal Cost8.88% 14.04% 10.40% 16.40% 13.00% 20.50%
Member Rate 4.44% 7.02% 5.20% 8.20% 5.80% 9.20%
Wisconsin Retirement System
ProtectiveProtective
Generalwith Soc Secw/out Soc Sec
Total Normal Cost13.60% 20.00% 24.90%
Member Rate 6.80% 6.80% 6.80%
Employer Rate 6.80% 13.20% 18.10%
Assumed 5.8% Rate
Assumed 6.8% Rate
Assumed 6.8% RateAssumed 7.5% Rate
Assumed 7.5% Rate Assumed 6.8% Rate
Assumed 5.8% Rate
It was assumed that all Milwaukee City Public Safety future hires would fall into the Protective
without Social Security category and all Milwaukee County Public Safety future hires would fall in the
Protective with Social Security category. In addition, for Milwaukee County, we assumed that the
member rate would equal ½ of the total normal cost for all scenarios.
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS D-6
Milwaukee City
Scenario 1a – Baseline Results (Milwaukee Status Quo) with 30-Year Amortization of UAAL
WRS Total Total Total Total
UAAL Employer Employee ER+EE Employer EmployerEmployee Normal
Payment Normal CostContribution Cost Cost Cost Cost Cost
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
2024 131,369,053$ 61,543,209$ 34,248,096$ - $ 192,912,262$ 31.4% 5.6% 15.6%
2025 131,369,053 63,389,505 35,275,539 - 194,758,558 30.8% 5.6% 15.6%
2026 131,369,053 65,291,190 36,333,806 - 196,660,243 30.2% 5.6% 15.6%
2027 131,369,053 67,249,926 37,423,820 - 198,618,979 29.6% 5.6% 15.6%
2028 131,369,053 69,267,424 38,546,534 - 200,636,477 29.0% 5.6% 15.6%
2029 131,369,053 71,345,447 39,702,930 - 202,714,500 28.5% 5.6% 15.6%
2030 131,369,053 73,485,810 40,894,018 - 204,854,863 27.9% 5.6% 15.6%
2031 131,369,053 75,690,384 42,120,839 - 207,059,437 27.4% 5.6% 15.6%
2032 131,369,053 77,961,096 43,384,464 - 209,330,149 26.9% 5.6% 15.6%
2033 131,369,053 80,299,929 44,685,998 - 211,668,982 26.4% 5.6% 15.6%
2034 131,369,053 82,708,927 46,026,578 - 214,077,980 25.9% 5.6% 15.6%
2035 131,369,053 85,190,194 47,407,375 - 216,559,247 25.5% 5.6% 15.6%
2036 131,369,053 87,745,900 48,829,596 - 219,114,953 25.0% 5.6% 15.6%
2037 131,369,053 90,378,277 50,294,484 - 221,747,330 24.6% 5.6% 15.6%
2038 131,369,053 93,089,626 51,803,319 - 224,458,679 24.1% 5.6% 15.6%
2039 131,369,053 95,882,314 53,357,418 - 227,251,367 23.7% 5.6% 15.6%
2040 131,369,053 98,758,784 54,958,141 - 230,127,837 23.3% 5.6% 15.6%
2041 131,369,053 101,721,547 56,606,885 - 233,090,600 22.9% 5.6% 15.6%
2042 131,369,053 104,773,194 58,305,092 - 236,142,247 22.6% 5.6% 15.6%
2043 131,369,053 107,916,389 60,054,244 - 239,285,442 22.2% 5.6% 15.6%
2044 131,369,053 111,153,881 61,855,872 - 242,522,934 21.8% 5.6% 15.6%
2045 131,369,053 114,488,498 63,711,548 - 245,857,551 21.5% 5.6% 15.6%
2046 131,369,053 117,923,152 65,622,894 - 249,292,206 21.2% 5.6% 15.6%
2047 131,369,053 121,460,847 67,591,581 - 252,829,900 20.8% 5.6% 15.6%
2048 131,369,053 125,104,672 69,619,329 - 256,473,726 20.5% 5.6% 15.6%
2049 131,369,053 128,857,813 71,707,908 - 260,226,866 20.2% 5.6% 15.6%
2050 131,369,053 132,723,547 73,859,146 - 264,092,600 19.9% 5.6% 15.6%
2051 131,369,053 136,705,253 76,074,920 - 268,074,306 19.6% 5.6% 15.6%
2052 131,369,053 140,806,411 78,357,168 - 272,175,464 19.4% 5.6% 15.6%
2053 131,369,053 145,030,603 80,707,883 - 276,399,656 19.1% 5.6% 15.6%
2054 - 149,381,521 83,129,119 - 149,381,521 10.0% 5.6% 15.6%
2055 - 153,862,967 85,622,993 - 153,862,967 10.0% 5.6% 15.6%
2056 - 158,478,856 88,191,683 - 158,478,856 10.0% 5.6% 15.6%
2057 - 163,233,222 90,837,433 - 163,233,222 10.0% 5.6% 15.6%
2058 - 168,130,218 93,562,556 - 168,130,218 10.0% 5.6% 15.6%
2059 - 173,174,125 96,369,433 - 173,174,125 10.0% 5.6% 15.6%
2060 - 178,369,349 99,260,516 - 178,369,349 10.0% 5.6% 15.6%
2061 - 183,720,429 102,238,331 - 183,720,429 10.0% 5.6% 15.6%
2062 - 189,232,042 105,305,481 - 189,232,042 10.0% 5.6% 15.6%
2063 - 194,909,003 108,464,646 - 194,909,003 10.0% 5.6% 15.6%
2064 - 200,756,273 111,718,585 - 200,756,273 10.0% 5.6% 15.6%
Milwaukee City - UAAL 30 years
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS D-7
Milwaukee City
Scenario 2a – Milwaukee New Hires Join WRS after 1/24, 7.5% Rate of Return for Milwaukee Plans
with 30-Year Amortization of UAAL
WRS Total Total Total Total
UAAL Employer Employee ER+EE Employer EmployerEmployee Normal
Payment Normal CostContribution Cost Cost Cost Cost Cost
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
2024 131,369,053$ 61,543,209$ 34,248,096$ - $ 192,912,262$ 31.4% 5.6% 15.6%
2025 131,369,053 61,433,570 34,259,763 3,277,103 194,873,441 30.8% 5.6% 15.6%
2026 131,369,053 61,261,964 34,241,306 6,750,833 196,896,902 30.2% 5.6% 15.7%
2027 131,369,053 61,024,772 34,190,909 10,430,037 198,984,617 29.6% 5.7% 15.7%
2028 131,369,053 60,718,212 34,106,670 14,323,918 201,138,619 29.1% 5.7% 15.8%
2029 131,369,053 60,338,336 33,986,605 18,442,044 203,361,008 28.5% 5.7% 15.8%
2030 131,369,053 59,881,021 33,828,640 22,794,366 205,653,947 28.0% 5.8% 15.9%
2031 131,369,053 59,341,963 33,630,609 27,391,230 208,019,670 27.5% 5.8% 15.9%
2032 131,369,053 58,716,669 33,390,251 32,243,391 210,460,480 27.0% 5.8% 16.0%
2033 131,369,053 58,000,449 33,105,203 37,362,030 212,978,753 26.6% 5.8% 16.0%
2034 131,369,053 57,188,411 32,773,002 42,758,767 215,576,940 26.1% 5.9% 16.1%
2035 131,369,053 56,275,450 32,391,074 48,445,683 218,257,569 25.7% 5.9% 16.1%
2036 131,369,053 55,256,242 31,956,734 54,435,331 221,023,249 25.2% 5.9% 16.2%
2037 131,369,053 54,125,233 31,467,182 60,740,757 223,876,671 24.8% 6.0% 16.2%
2038 131,369,053 52,876,634 30,919,496 67,375,517 226,820,609 24.4% 6.0% 16.3%
2039 131,369,053 51,504,405 30,310,628 74,353,695 229,857,926 24.0% 6.0% 16.3%
2040 131,369,053 50,002,254 29,637,401 81,689,927 232,991,576 23.6% 6.1% 16.4%
2041 131,369,053 48,363,621 28,896,500 89,399,413 236,224,605 23.3% 6.1% 16.4%
2042 131,369,053 46,581,666 28,084,472 97,497,949 239,560,155 22.9% 6.1% 16.5%
2043 131,369,053 44,649,268 27,197,715 106,001,936 243,001,468 22.5% 6.1% 16.5%
2044 131,369,053 42,559,002 26,232,477 114,928,415 246,551,888 22.2% 6.2% 16.5%
2045 131,369,053 40,303,136 25,184,846 124,295,081 250,214,865 21.9% 6.2% 16.6%
2046 131,369,053 37,873,615 24,050,748 134,120,311 253,993,955 21.6% 6.2% 16.6%
2047 131,369,053 35,262,049 22,825,939 144,423,190 257,892,829 21.3% 6.3% 16.7%
2048 131,369,053 32,459,704 21,505,994 155,223,533 261,915,274 21.0% 6.3% 16.7%
2049 131,369,053 29,457,482 20,086,310 166,541,915 266,065,194 20.7% 6.3% 16.8%
2050 131,369,053 26,245,912 18,562,090 178,399,699 270,346,617 20.4% 6.4% 16.8%
2051 131,369,053 22,815,137 16,928,338 190,819,063 274,763,699 20.1% 6.4% 16.9%
2052 131,369,053 19,154,894 15,179,856 203,823,029 279,320,726 19.9% 6.4% 16.9%
2053 131,369,053 15,254,503 13,311,229 217,435,495 284,022,120 19.6% 6.4% 17.0%
2054 - 11,102,849 11,316,823 231,681,269 157,503,388 10.6% 6.5% 17.0%
2055 - 10,292,341 10,490,695 241,962,087 162,750,086 10.6% 6.5% 17.1%
2056 - 9,423,210 9,604,814 252,651,240 168,169,832 10.6% 6.5% 17.2%
2057 - 8,492,668 8,656,338 263,763,977 173,768,289 10.7% 6.6% 17.2%
2058 - 7,497,813 7,642,310 275,316,091 179,551,300 10.7% 6.6% 17.3%
2059 - 6,435,623 6,559,650 287,323,945 185,524,900 10.7% 6.6% 17.4%
2060 - 5,302,953 5,405,151 299,804,486 191,695,320 10.8% 6.7% 17.4%
2061 - 4,096,531 4,175,479 312,775,267 198,068,992 10.8% 6.7% 17.5%
2062 - 2,812,951 2,867,163 326,254,472 204,652,560 10.8% 6.7% 17.6%
2063 - 1,448,670 1,476,589 340,260,931 211,452,879 10.9% 6.8% 17.6%
2064 - - - 354,814,148 218,477,030 10.9% 6.8% 17.7%
Milwaukee City - UAAL 30 years
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS D-8
Milwaukee City
Scenario 3a – Milwaukee New Hires Join WRS after 1/24, 6.8% Rate of Return for Milwaukee Plans
with 30-Year Amortization of UAAL
WRS Total Total Total Total
UAAL Employer Employee ER+EE Employer EmployerEmployee Normal
Payment Normal CostContribution Cost Cost Cost Cost Cost
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
2024 176,340,890$ 77,827,731$ 34,248,096$ - $ 254,168,621$ 41.4% 5.6% 18.2%
2025 176,340,890 77,701,437 34,259,763 3,277,103 256,113,145 40.5% 5.6% 18.2%
2026 176,340,890 77,497,520 34,241,306 6,750,833 258,104,295 39.6% 5.6% 18.2%
2027 176,340,890 77,211,437 34,190,909 10,430,037 260,143,119 38.7% 5.7% 18.1%
2028 176,340,890 76,838,442 34,106,670 14,323,918 262,230,686 37.9% 5.7% 18.1%
2029 176,340,890 76,373,576 33,986,605 18,442,044 264,368,085 37.1% 5.7% 18.1%
2030 176,340,890 75,811,664 33,828,640 22,794,366 266,556,426 36.3% 5.8% 18.0%
2031 176,340,890 75,147,300 33,630,609 27,391,230 268,796,844 35.6% 5.8% 18.0%
2032 176,340,890 74,374,845 33,390,251 32,243,391 271,090,493 34.8% 5.8% 18.0%
2033 176,340,890 73,488,410 33,105,203 37,362,030 273,438,551 34.1% 5.8% 18.0%
2034 176,340,890 72,481,851 32,773,002 42,758,767 275,842,217 33.4% 5.9% 17.9%
2035 176,340,890 71,348,759 32,391,074 48,445,683 278,302,715 32.7% 5.9% 17.9%
2036 176,340,890 70,082,447 31,956,734 54,435,331 280,821,292 32.0% 5.9% 17.9%
2037 176,340,890 68,675,944 31,467,182 60,740,757 283,399,218 31.4% 6.0% 17.8%
2038 176,340,890 67,121,976 30,919,496 67,375,517 286,037,788 30.8% 6.0% 17.8%
2039 176,340,890 65,412,961 30,310,628 74,353,695 288,738,319 30.2% 6.0% 17.8%
2040 176,340,890 63,540,996 29,637,401 81,689,927 291,502,154 29.6% 6.1% 17.7%
2041 176,340,890 61,497,841 28,896,500 89,399,413 294,330,662 29.0% 6.1% 17.7%
2042 176,340,890 59,274,910 28,084,472 97,497,949 297,225,235 28.4% 6.1% 17.7%
2043 176,340,890 56,863,255 27,197,715 106,001,936 300,187,292 27.9% 6.1% 17.6%
2044 176,340,890 54,253,553 26,232,477 114,928,415 303,218,277 27.3% 6.2% 17.6%
2045 176,340,890 51,436,093 25,184,846 124,295,081 306,319,659 26.8% 6.2% 17.6%
2046 176,340,890 48,400,756 24,050,748 134,120,311 309,492,934 26.3% 6.2% 17.5%
2047 176,340,890 45,137,007 22,825,939 144,423,190 312,739,624 25.8% 6.3% 17.5%
2048 176,340,890 41,633,872 21,505,994 155,223,533 316,061,279 25.3% 6.3% 17.5%
2049 176,340,890 37,879,926 20,086,310 166,541,915 319,459,475 24.8% 6.3% 17.4%
2050 176,340,890 33,863,273 18,562,090 178,399,699 322,935,814 24.4% 6.4% 17.4%
2051 176,340,890 29,571,528 16,928,338 190,819,063 326,491,927 23.9% 6.4% 17.4%
2052 176,340,890 24,991,802 15,179,856 203,823,029 330,129,471 23.5% 6.4% 17.4%
2053 176,340,890 20,110,678 13,311,229 217,435,495 333,850,132 23.0% 6.4% 17.3%
2054 - 14,914,194 11,316,823 231,681,269 161,314,732 10.8% 6.5% 17.3%
2055 - 13,825,457 10,490,695 241,962,087 166,283,202 10.8% 6.5% 17.3%
2056 - 12,657,974 9,604,814 252,651,240 171,404,596 10.8% 6.5% 17.4%
2057 - 11,407,999 8,656,338 263,763,977 176,683,620 10.8% 6.6% 17.4%
2058 - 10,071,634 7,642,310 275,316,091 182,125,121 10.8% 6.6% 17.5%
2059 - 8,644,819 6,559,650 287,323,945 187,734,096 10.9% 6.6% 17.5%
2060 - 7,123,331 5,405,151 299,804,486 193,515,697 10.9% 6.7% 17.5%
2061 - 5,502,773 4,175,479 312,775,267 199,475,234 10.9% 6.7% 17.6%
2062 - 3,778,571 2,867,163 326,254,472 205,618,179 10.9% 6.7% 17.6%
2063 - 1,945,964 1,476,589 340,260,931 211,950,173 10.9% 6.8% 17.7%
2064 - - - 354,814,148 218,477,030 10.9% 6.8% 17.7%
Milwaukee City - UAAL 30 years
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS D-9
Milwaukee City
Scenario 4a – Milwaukee New Hires Join WRS after 1/24, 5.8% Rate of Return for Milwaukee Plans
with 30-Year Amortization of UAAL
WRS Total Total Total Total
UAAL Employer Employee ER+EE Employer EmployerEmployee Normal
Payment Normal CostContribution Cost Cost Cost Cost Cost
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
2024 234,232,526$ 105,622,538$ 34,248,096$ - $ 339,855,064$ 55.3% 5.6% 22.8%
2025 234,232,526 105,467,167 34,259,763 3,277,103 341,770,511 54.0% 5.6% 22.6%
2026 234,232,526 105,207,413 34,241,306 6,750,833 343,705,824 52.7% 5.6% 22.4%
2027 234,232,526 104,837,154 34,190,909 10,430,037 345,660,472 51.5% 5.7% 22.3%
2028 234,232,526 104,349,993 34,106,670 14,323,918 347,633,873 50.3% 5.7% 22.1%
2029 234,232,526 103,739,248 33,986,605 18,442,044 349,625,393 49.1% 5.7% 21.9%
2030 234,232,526 102,997,944 33,828,640 22,794,366 351,634,343 47.9% 5.8% 21.7%
2031 234,232,526 102,118,796 33,630,609 27,391,230 353,659,976 46.8% 5.8% 21.6%
2032 234,232,526 101,094,201 33,390,251 32,243,391 355,701,486 45.7% 5.8% 21.4%
2033 234,232,526 99,916,224 33,105,203 37,362,030 357,758,001 44.6% 5.8% 21.2%
2034 234,232,526 98,576,583 32,773,002 42,758,767 359,828,586 43.6% 5.9% 21.1%
2035 234,232,526 97,066,639 32,391,074 48,445,683 361,912,232 42.5% 5.9% 20.9%
2036 234,232,526 95,377,380 31,956,734 54,435,331 364,007,861 41.5% 5.9% 20.7%
2037 234,232,526 93,499,405 31,467,182 60,740,757 366,114,316 40.6% 6.0% 20.6%
2038 234,232,526 91,422,912 30,919,496 67,375,517 368,230,360 39.6% 6.0% 20.4%
2039 234,232,526 89,137,680 30,310,628 74,353,695 370,354,673 38.7% 6.0% 20.2%
2040 234,232,526 86,633,053 29,637,401 81,689,927 372,485,847 37.8% 6.1% 20.1%
2041 234,232,526 83,897,925 28,896,500 89,399,413 374,622,382 36.9% 6.1% 19.9%
2042 234,232,526 80,920,719 28,084,472 97,497,949 376,762,681 36.0% 6.1% 19.7%
2043 234,232,526 77,689,373 27,197,715 106,001,936 378,905,046 35.2% 6.1% 19.6%
2044 234,232,526 74,191,317 26,232,477 114,928,415 381,047,677 34.3% 6.2% 19.4%
2045 234,232,526 70,413,458 25,184,846 124,295,081 383,188,660 33.5% 6.2% 19.2%
2046 234,232,526 66,342,155 24,050,748 134,120,311 385,325,969 32.7% 6.2% 19.1%
2047 234,232,526 61,963,202 22,825,939 144,423,190 387,457,455 31.9% 6.3% 18.9%
2048 234,232,526 57,261,803 21,505,994 155,223,533 389,580,847 31.2% 6.3% 18.7%
2049 234,232,526 52,222,554 20,086,310 166,541,915 391,693,739 30.4% 6.3% 18.6%
2050 234,232,526 46,829,414 18,562,090 178,399,699 393,793,592 29.7% 6.4% 18.4%
2051 234,232,526 41,065,686 16,928,338 190,819,063 395,877,721 29.0% 6.4% 18.2%
2052 234,232,526 34,913,987 15,179,856 203,823,029 397,943,292 28.3% 6.4% 18.1%
2053 234,232,526 28,356,227 13,311,229 217,435,495 399,987,317 27.6% 6.4% 17.9%
2054 - 21,373,579 11,316,823 231,681,269 167,774,118 11.2% 6.5% 17.7%
2055 - 19,813,308 10,490,695 241,962,087 172,271,052 11.2% 6.5% 17.7%
2056 - 18,140,184 9,604,814 252,651,240 176,886,806 11.2% 6.5% 17.7%
2057 - 16,348,841 8,656,338 263,763,977 181,624,461 11.1% 6.6% 17.7%
2058 - 14,433,691 7,642,310 275,316,091 186,487,178 11.1% 6.6% 17.7%
2059 - 12,388,918 6,559,650 287,323,945 191,478,195 11.1% 6.6% 17.7%
2060 - 10,208,469 5,405,151 299,804,486 196,600,835 11.0% 6.7% 17.7%
2061 - 7,886,042 4,175,479 312,775,267 201,858,503 11.0% 6.7% 17.7%
2062 - 5,415,082 2,867,163 326,254,472 207,254,690 11.0% 6.7% 17.7%
2063 - 2,788,767 1,476,589 340,260,931 212,792,976 10.9% 6.8% 17.7%
2064 - - - 354,814,148 218,477,030 10.9% 6.8% 17.7%
Milwaukee City - UAAL 30 years
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS D-10
Milwaukee City
Scenario 1b – Baseline Results (Milwaukee Status Quo) with 20-Year Amortization of UAAL
WRS Total Total Total Total
UAAL Employer Employee ER+EE Employer EmployerEmployee Normal
Payment Normal CostContribution Cost Cost Cost Cost Cost
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
2024 152,191,925$ 61,543,209$ 34,248,096$ - $ 213,735,134$ 34.8% 5.6% 15.6%
2025 152,191,925 63,389,505 35,275,539 - 215,581,430 34.1% 5.6% 15.6%
2026 152,191,925 65,291,190 36,333,806 - 217,483,115 33.4% 5.6% 15.6%
2027 152,191,925 67,249,926 37,423,820 - 219,441,851 32.7% 5.6% 15.6%
2028 152,191,925 69,267,424 38,546,534 - 221,459,348 32.0% 5.6% 15.6%
2029 152,191,925 71,345,447 39,702,930 - 223,537,371 31.4% 5.6% 15.6%
2030 152,191,925 73,485,810 40,894,018 - 225,677,735 30.8% 5.6% 15.6%
2031 152,191,925 75,690,384 42,120,839 - 227,882,309 30.1% 5.6% 15.6%
2032 152,191,925 77,961,096 43,384,464 - 230,153,020 29.6% 5.6% 15.6%
2033 152,191,925 80,299,929 44,685,998 - 232,491,853 29.0% 5.6% 15.6%
2034 152,191,925 82,708,927 46,026,578 - 234,900,851 28.4% 5.6% 15.6%
2035 152,191,925 85,190,194 47,407,375 - 237,382,119 27.9% 5.6% 15.6%
2036 152,191,925 87,745,900 48,829,596 - 239,937,825 27.4% 5.6% 15.6%
2037 152,191,925 90,378,277 50,294,484 - 242,570,202 26.9% 5.6% 15.6%
2038 152,191,925 93,089,626 51,803,319 - 245,281,550 26.4% 5.6% 15.6%
2039 152,191,925 95,882,314 53,357,418 - 248,074,239 25.9% 5.6% 15.6%
2040 152,191,925 98,758,784 54,958,141 - 250,950,708 25.4% 5.6% 15.6%
2041 152,191,925 101,721,547 56,606,885 - 253,913,472 25.0% 5.6% 15.6%
2042 152,191,925 104,773,194 58,305,092 - 256,965,118 24.6% 5.6% 15.6%
2043 152,191,925 107,916,389 60,054,244 - 260,108,314 24.1% 5.6% 15.6%
2044 - 111,153,881 61,855,872 - 111,153,881 10.0% 5.6% 15.6%
2045 - 114,488,498 63,711,548 - 114,488,498 10.0% 5.6% 15.6%
2046 - 117,923,152 65,622,894 - 117,923,152 10.0% 5.6% 15.6%
2047 - 121,460,847 67,591,581 - 121,460,847 10.0% 5.6% 15.6%
2048 - 125,104,672 69,619,329 - 125,104,672 10.0% 5.6% 15.6%
2049 - 128,857,813 71,707,908 - 128,857,813 10.0% 5.6% 15.6%
2050 - 132,723,547 73,859,146 - 132,723,547 10.0% 5.6% 15.6%
2051 - 136,705,253 76,074,920 - 136,705,253 10.0% 5.6% 15.6%
2052 - 140,806,411 78,357,168 - 140,806,411 10.0% 5.6% 15.6%
2053 - 145,030,603 80,707,883 - 145,030,603 10.0% 5.6% 15.6%
2054 - 149,381,521 83,129,119 - 149,381,521 10.0% 5.6% 15.6%
2055 - 153,862,967 85,622,993 - 153,862,967 10.0% 5.6% 15.6%
2056 - 158,478,856 88,191,683 - 158,478,856 10.0% 5.6% 15.6%
2057 - 163,233,222 90,837,433 - 163,233,222 10.0% 5.6% 15.6%
2058 - 168,130,218 93,562,556 - 168,130,218 10.0% 5.6% 15.6%
2059 - 173,174,125 96,369,433 - 173,174,125 10.0% 5.6% 15.6%
2060 - 178,369,349 99,260,516 - 178,369,349 10.0% 5.6% 15.6%
2061 - 183,720,429 102,238,331 - 183,720,429 10.0% 5.6% 15.6%
2062 - 189,232,042 105,305,481 - 189,232,042 10.0% 5.6% 15.6%
2063 - 194,909,003 108,464,646 - 194,909,003 10.0% 5.6% 15.6%
2064 - 200,756,273 111,718,585 - 200,756,273 10.0% 5.6% 15.6%
Milwaukee City - UAAL 20 years
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS D-11
Milwaukee City
Scenario 2b – Milwaukee New Hires Join WRS after 1/24, 7.5% Rate of Return for Milwaukee Plans
with 20-Year Amortization of UAAL
WRS Total Total Total Total
UAAL Employer Employee ER+EE Employer EmployerEmployee Normal
Payment Normal CostContribution Cost Cost Cost Cost Cost
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
2024 152,191,925$ 61,543,209$ 34,248,096$ - $ 213,735,134$ 34.8% 5.6% 15.6%
2025 152,191,925 61,433,570 34,259,763 3,277,103 215,696,313 34.1% 5.6% 15.6%
2026 152,191,925 61,261,964 34,241,306 6,750,833 217,719,774 33.4% 5.6% 15.7%
2027 152,191,925 61,024,772 34,190,909 10,430,037 219,807,488 32.7% 5.7% 15.7%
2028 152,191,925 60,718,212 34,106,670 14,323,918 221,961,491 32.1% 5.7% 15.8%
2029 152,191,925 60,338,336 33,986,605 18,442,044 224,183,879 31.5% 5.7% 15.8%
2030 152,191,925 59,881,021 33,828,640 22,794,366 226,476,819 30.9% 5.8% 15.9%
2031 152,191,925 59,341,963 33,630,609 27,391,230 228,842,541 30.3% 5.8% 15.9%
2032 152,191,925 58,716,669 33,390,251 32,243,391 231,283,351 29.7% 5.8% 16.0%
2033 152,191,925 58,000,449 33,105,203 37,362,030 233,801,624 29.2% 5.8% 16.0%
2034 152,191,925 57,188,411 32,773,002 42,758,767 236,399,811 28.6% 5.9% 16.1%
2035 152,191,925 56,275,450 32,391,074 48,445,683 239,080,441 28.1% 5.9% 16.1%
2036 152,191,925 55,256,242 31,956,734 54,435,331 241,846,121 27.6% 5.9% 16.2%
2037 152,191,925 54,125,233 31,467,182 60,740,757 244,699,542 27.1% 6.0% 16.2%
2038 152,191,925 52,876,634 30,919,496 67,375,517 247,643,480 26.6% 6.0% 16.3%
2039 152,191,925 51,504,405 30,310,628 74,353,695 250,680,797 26.2% 6.0% 16.3%
2040 152,191,925 50,002,254 29,637,401 81,689,927 253,814,447 25.7% 6.1% 16.4%
2041 152,191,925 48,363,621 28,896,500 89,399,413 257,047,476 25.3% 6.1% 16.4%
2042 152,191,925 46,581,666 28,084,472 97,497,949 260,383,026 24.9% 6.1% 16.5%
2043 152,191,925 44,649,268 27,197,715 106,001,936 263,824,340 24.5% 6.1% 16.5%
2044 - 42,559,002 26,232,477 114,928,415 115,182,835 10.4% 6.2% 16.5%
2045 - 40,303,136 25,184,846 124,295,081 118,845,812 10.4% 6.2% 16.6%
2046 - 37,873,615 24,050,748 134,120,311 122,624,902 10.4% 6.2% 16.6%
2047 - 35,262,049 22,825,939 144,423,190 126,523,776 10.4% 6.3% 16.7%
2048 - 32,459,704 21,505,994 155,223,533 130,546,221 10.4% 6.3% 16.7%
2049 - 29,457,482 20,086,310 166,541,915 134,696,140 10.5% 6.3% 16.8%
2050 - 26,245,912 18,562,090 178,399,699 138,977,564 10.5% 6.4% 16.8%
2051 - 22,815,137 16,928,338 190,819,063 143,394,646 10.5% 6.4% 16.9%
2052 - 19,154,894 15,179,856 203,823,029 147,951,673 10.5% 6.4% 16.9%
2053 - 15,254,503 13,311,229 217,435,495 152,653,067 10.5% 6.4% 17.0%
2054 - 11,102,849 11,316,823 231,681,269 157,503,388 10.6% 6.5% 17.0%
2055 - 10,292,341 10,490,695 241,962,087 162,750,086 10.6% 6.5% 17.1%
2056 - 9,423,210 9,604,814 252,651,240 168,169,832 10.6% 6.5% 17.2%
2057 - 8,492,668 8,656,338 263,763,977 173,768,289 10.7% 6.6% 17.2%
2058 - 7,497,813 7,642,310 275,316,091 179,551,300 10.7% 6.6% 17.3%
2059 - 6,435,623 6,559,650 287,323,945 185,524,900 10.7% 6.6% 17.4%
2060 - 5,302,953 5,405,151 299,804,486 191,695,320 10.8% 6.7% 17.4%
2061 - 4,096,531 4,175,479 312,775,267 198,068,992 10.8% 6.7% 17.5%
2062 - 2,812,951 2,867,163 326,254,472 204,652,560 10.8% 6.7% 17.6%
2063 - 1,448,670 1,476,589 340,260,931 211,452,879 10.9% 6.8% 17.6%
2064 - - - 354,814,148 218,477,030 10.9% 6.8% 17.7%
Milwaukee City - UAAL 20 years
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS D-12
Milwaukee City
Scenario 3b – Milwaukee New Hires Join WRS after 1/24, 6.8% Rate of Return for Milwaukee Plans
with 20-Year Amortization of UAAL
WRS Total Total Total Total
UAAL Employer Employee ER+EE Employer EmployerEmployee Normal
Payment Normal CostContribution Cost Cost Cost Cost Cost
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
2024 207,506,141$ 77,827,731$ 34,248,096$ - $ 285,333,872$ 46.4% 5.6% 18.2%
2025 207,506,141 77,701,437 34,259,763 3,277,103 287,278,396 45.4% 5.6% 18.2%
2026 207,506,141 77,497,520 34,241,306 6,750,833 289,269,546 44.4% 5.6% 18.2%
2027 207,506,141 77,211,437 34,190,909 10,430,037 291,308,371 43.4% 5.7% 18.1%
2028 207,506,141 76,838,442 34,106,670 14,323,918 293,395,937 42.4% 5.7% 18.1%
2029 207,506,141 76,373,576 33,986,605 18,442,044 295,533,336 41.5% 5.7% 18.1%
2030 207,506,141 75,811,664 33,828,640 22,794,366 297,721,678 40.6% 5.8% 18.0%
2031 207,506,141 75,147,300 33,630,609 27,391,230 299,962,096 39.7% 5.8% 18.0%
2032 207,506,141 74,374,845 33,390,251 32,243,391 302,255,744 38.8% 5.8% 18.0%
2033 207,506,141 73,488,410 33,105,203 37,362,030 304,603,802 38.0% 5.8% 18.0%
2034 207,506,141 72,481,851 32,773,002 42,758,767 307,007,468 37.2% 5.9% 17.9%
2035 207,506,141 71,348,759 32,391,074 48,445,683 309,467,967 36.4% 5.9% 17.9%
2036 207,506,141 70,082,447 31,956,734 54,435,331 311,986,544 35.6% 5.9% 17.9%
2037 207,506,141 68,675,944 31,467,182 60,740,757 314,564,470 34.9% 6.0% 17.8%
2038 207,506,141 67,121,976 30,919,496 67,375,517 317,203,039 34.1% 6.0% 17.8%
2039 207,506,141 65,412,961 30,310,628 74,353,695 319,903,570 33.4% 6.0% 17.8%
2040 207,506,141 63,540,996 29,637,401 81,689,927 322,667,405 32.7% 6.1% 17.7%
2041 207,506,141 61,497,841 28,896,500 89,399,413 325,495,913 32.0% 6.1% 17.7%
2042 207,506,141 59,274,910 28,084,472 97,497,949 328,390,487 31.4% 6.1% 17.7%
2043 207,506,141 56,863,255 27,197,715 106,001,936 331,352,544 30.7% 6.1% 17.6%
2044 - 54,253,553 26,232,477 114,928,415 126,877,387 11.4% 6.2% 17.6%
2045 - 51,436,093 25,184,846 124,295,081 129,978,769 11.4% 6.2% 17.6%
2046 - 48,400,756 24,050,748 134,120,311 133,152,044 11.3% 6.2% 17.5%
2047 - 45,137,007 22,825,939 144,423,190 136,398,734 11.2% 6.3% 17.5%
2048 - 41,633,872 21,505,994 155,223,533 139,720,389 11.2% 6.3% 17.5%
2049 - 37,879,926 20,086,310 166,541,915 143,118,585 11.1% 6.3% 17.4%
2050 - 33,863,273 18,562,090 178,399,699 146,594,924 11.1% 6.4% 17.4%
2051 - 29,571,528 16,928,338 190,819,063 150,151,037 11.0% 6.4% 17.4%
2052 - 24,991,802 15,179,856 203,823,029 153,788,581 10.9% 6.4% 17.4%
2053 - 20,110,678 13,311,229 217,435,495 157,509,242 10.9% 6.4% 17.3%
2054 - 14,914,194 11,316,823 231,681,269 161,314,732 10.8% 6.5% 17.3%
2055 - 13,825,457 10,490,695 241,962,087 166,283,202 10.8% 6.5% 17.3%
2056 - 12,657,974 9,604,814 252,651,240 171,404,596 10.8% 6.5% 17.4%
2057 - 11,407,999 8,656,338 263,763,977 176,683,620 10.8% 6.6% 17.4%
2058 - 10,071,634 7,642,310 275,316,091 182,125,121 10.8% 6.6% 17.5%
2059 - 8,644,819 6,559,650 287,323,945 187,734,096 10.9% 6.6% 17.5%
2060 - 7,123,331 5,405,151 299,804,486 193,515,697 10.9% 6.7% 17.5%
2061 - 5,502,773 4,175,479 312,775,267 199,475,234 10.9% 6.7% 17.6%
2062 - 3,778,571 2,867,163 326,254,472 205,618,179 10.9% 6.7% 17.6%
2063 - 1,945,964 1,476,589 340,260,931 211,950,173 10.9% 6.8% 17.7%
2064 - - - 354,814,148 218,477,030 10.9% 6.8% 17.7%
Milwaukee City - UAAL 20 years
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS D-13
Milwaukee City
Scenario 4b – Milwaukee New Hires Join WRS after 1/24, 5.8% Rate of Return for Milwaukee Plans
with 20-Year Amortization of UAAL
WRS Total Total Total Total
UAAL Employer Employee ER+EE Employer EmployerEmployee Normal
Payment Normal CostContribution Cost Cost Cost Cost Cost
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
2024 282,571,747$ 105,622,538$ 34,248,096$ - $ 388,194,284$ 63.2% 5.6% 22.8%
2025 282,571,747 105,467,167 34,259,763 3,277,103 390,109,731 61.6% 5.6% 22.6%
2026 282,571,747 105,207,413 34,241,306 6,750,833 392,045,045 60.1% 5.6% 22.4%
2027 282,571,747 104,837,154 34,190,909 10,430,037 393,999,693 58.7% 5.7% 22.3%
2028 282,571,747 104,349,993 34,106,670 14,323,918 395,973,094 57.2% 5.7% 22.1%
2029 282,571,747 103,739,248 33,986,605 18,442,044 397,964,613 55.9% 5.7% 21.9%
2030 282,571,747 102,997,944 33,828,640 22,794,366 399,973,563 54.5% 5.8% 21.7%
2031 282,571,747 102,118,796 33,630,609 27,391,230 401,999,196 53.2% 5.8% 21.6%
2032 282,571,747 101,094,201 33,390,251 32,243,391 404,040,706 51.9% 5.8% 21.4%
2033 282,571,747 99,916,224 33,105,203 37,362,030 406,097,222 50.6% 5.8% 21.2%
2034 282,571,747 98,576,583 32,773,002 42,758,767 408,167,806 49.4% 5.9% 21.1%
2035 282,571,747 97,066,639 32,391,074 48,445,683 410,251,452 48.2% 5.9% 20.9%
2036 282,571,747 95,377,380 31,956,734 54,435,331 412,347,081 47.1% 5.9% 20.7%
2037 282,571,747 93,499,405 31,467,182 60,740,757 414,453,536 45.9% 6.0% 20.6%
2038 282,571,747 91,422,912 30,919,496 67,375,517 416,569,580 44.8% 6.0% 20.4%
2039 282,571,747 89,137,680 30,310,628 74,353,695 418,693,894 43.7% 6.0% 20.2%
2040 282,571,747 86,633,053 29,637,401 81,689,927 420,825,068 42.7% 6.1% 20.1%
2041 282,571,747 83,897,925 28,896,500 89,399,413 422,961,602 41.6% 6.1% 19.9%
2042 282,571,747 80,920,719 28,084,472 97,497,949 425,101,901 40.6% 6.1% 19.7%
2043 282,571,747 77,689,373 27,197,715 106,001,936 427,244,267 39.6% 6.1% 19.6%
2044 - 74,191,317 26,232,477 114,928,415 146,815,151 13.2% 6.2% 19.4%
2045 - 70,413,458 25,184,846 124,295,081 148,956,134 13.0% 6.2% 19.2%
2046 - 66,342,155 24,050,748 134,120,311 151,093,442 12.8% 6.2% 19.1%
2047 - 61,963,202 22,825,939 144,423,190 153,224,929 12.6% 6.3% 18.9%
2048 - 57,261,803 21,505,994 155,223,533 155,348,320 12.4% 6.3% 18.7%
2049 - 52,222,554 20,086,310 166,541,915 157,461,213 12.2% 6.3% 18.6%
2050 - 46,829,414 18,562,090 178,399,699 159,561,066 12.0% 6.4% 18.4%
2051 - 41,065,686 16,928,338 190,819,063 161,645,194 11.8% 6.4% 18.2%
2052 - 34,913,987 15,179,856 203,823,029 163,710,766 11.6% 6.4% 18.1%
2053 - 28,356,227 13,311,229 217,435,495 165,754,791 11.4% 6.4% 17.9%
2054 - 21,373,579 11,316,823 231,681,269 167,774,118 11.2% 6.5% 17.7%
2055 - 19,813,308 10,490,695 241,962,087 172,271,052 11.2% 6.5% 17.7%
2056 - 18,140,184 9,604,814 252,651,240 176,886,806 11.2% 6.5% 17.7%
2057 - 16,348,841 8,656,338 263,763,977 181,624,461 11.1% 6.6% 17.7%
2058 - 14,433,691 7,642,310 275,316,091 186,487,178 11.1% 6.6% 17.7%
2059 - 12,388,918 6,559,650 287,323,945 191,478,195 11.1% 6.6% 17.7%
2060 - 10,208,469 5,405,151 299,804,486 196,600,835 11.0% 6.7% 17.7%
2061 - 7,886,042 4,175,479 312,775,267 201,858,503 11.0% 6.7% 17.7%
2062 - 5,415,082 2,867,163 326,254,472 207,254,690 11.0% 6.7% 17.7%
2063 - 2,788,767 1,476,589 340,260,931 212,792,976 10.9% 6.8% 17.7%
2064 - - - 354,814,148 218,477,030 10.9% 6.8% 17.7%
Milwaukee City - UAAL 20 years
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS D-14
Milwaukee City
Scenario 1c – Baseline Results (Milwaukee Status Quo) with 10-Year Amortization of UAAL
WRS Total Total Total Total
UAAL Employer Employee ER+EE Employer EmployerEmployee Normal
Payment Normal CostContribution Cost Cost Cost Cost Cost
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
2024 226,034,522$ 61,543,209$ 34,248,096$ - $ 287,577,731$ 46.8% 5.6% 15.6%
2025 226,034,522 63,389,505 35,275,539 - 289,424,028 45.7% 5.6% 15.6%
2026 226,034,522 65,291,190 36,333,806 - 291,325,713 44.7% 5.6% 15.6%
2027 226,034,522 67,249,926 37,423,820 - 293,284,448 43.7% 5.6% 15.6%
2028 226,034,522 69,267,424 38,546,534 - 295,301,946 42.7% 5.6% 15.6%
2029 226,034,522 71,345,447 39,702,930 - 297,379,969 41.7% 5.6% 15.6%
2030 226,034,522 73,485,810 40,894,018 - 299,520,332 40.8% 5.6% 15.6%
2031 226,034,522 75,690,384 42,120,839 - 301,724,907 39.9% 5.6% 15.6%
2032 226,034,522 77,961,096 43,384,464 - 303,995,618 39.0% 5.6% 15.6%
2033 226,034,522 80,299,929 44,685,998 - 306,334,451 38.2% 5.6% 15.6%
2034 - 82,708,927 46,026,578 - 82,708,927 10.0% 5.6% 15.6%
2035 - 85,190,194 47,407,375 - 85,190,194 10.0% 5.6% 15.6%
2036 - 87,745,900 48,829,596 - 87,745,900 10.0% 5.6% 15.6%
2037 - 90,378,277 50,294,484 - 90,378,277 10.0% 5.6% 15.6%
2038 - 93,089,626 51,803,319 - 93,089,626 10.0% 5.6% 15.6%
2039 - 95,882,314 53,357,418 - 95,882,314 10.0% 5.6% 15.6%
2040 - 98,758,784 54,958,141 - 98,758,784 10.0% 5.6% 15.6%
2041 - 101,721,547 56,606,885 - 101,721,547 10.0% 5.6% 15.6%
2042 - 104,773,194 58,305,092 - 104,773,194 10.0% 5.6% 15.6%
2043 - 107,916,389 60,054,244 - 107,916,389 10.0% 5.6% 15.6%
2044 - 111,153,881 61,855,872 - 111,153,881 10.0% 5.6% 15.6%
2045 - 114,488,498 63,711,548 - 114,488,498 10.0% 5.6% 15.6%
2046 - 117,923,152 65,622,894 - 117,923,152 10.0% 5.6% 15.6%
2047 - 121,460,847 67,591,581 - 121,460,847 10.0% 5.6% 15.6%
2048 - 125,104,672 69,619,329 - 125,104,672 10.0% 5.6% 15.6%
2049 - 128,857,813 71,707,908 - 128,857,813 10.0% 5.6% 15.6%
2050 - 132,723,547 73,859,146 - 132,723,547 10.0% 5.6% 15.6%
2051 - 136,705,253 76,074,920 - 136,705,253 10.0% 5.6% 15.6%
2052 - 140,806,411 78,357,168 - 140,806,411 10.0% 5.6% 15.6%
2053 - 145,030,603 80,707,883 - 145,030,603 10.0% 5.6% 15.6%
2054 - 149,381,521 83,129,119 - 149,381,521 10.0% 5.6% 15.6%
2055 - 153,862,967 85,622,993 - 153,862,967 10.0% 5.6% 15.6%
2056 - 158,478,856 88,191,683 - 158,478,856 10.0% 5.6% 15.6%
2057 - 163,233,222 90,837,433 - 163,233,222 10.0% 5.6% 15.6%
2058 - 168,130,218 93,562,556 - 168,130,218 10.0% 5.6% 15.6%
2059 - 173,174,125 96,369,433 - 173,174,125 10.0% 5.6% 15.6%
2060 - 178,369,349 99,260,516 - 178,369,349 10.0% 5.6% 15.6%
2061 - 183,720,429 102,238,331 - 183,720,429 10.0% 5.6% 15.6%
2062 - 189,232,042 105,305,481 - 189,232,042 10.0% 5.6% 15.6%
2063 - 194,909,003 108,464,646 - 194,909,003 10.0% 5.6% 15.6%
2064 - 200,756,273 111,718,585 - 200,756,273 10.0% 5.6% 15.6%
Milwaukee City - UAAL 10 years
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS D-15
Milwaukee City
Scenario 2c – Milwaukee New Hires Join WRS after 1/24, 7.5% Rate of Return for Milwaukee Plans
with 10-Year Amortization of UAAL
WRS Total Total Total Total
UAAL Employer Employee ER+EE Employer EmployerEmployee Normal
Payment Normal CostContribution Cost Cost Cost Cost Cost
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
2024 226,034,522$ 61,543,209$ 34,248,096$ - $ 287,577,731$ 46.8% 5.6% 15.6%
2025 226,034,522 61,433,570 34,259,763 3,277,103 289,538,910 45.7% 5.6% 15.6%
2026 226,034,522 61,261,964 34,241,306 6,750,833 291,562,371 44.7% 5.6% 15.7%
2027 226,034,522 61,024,772 34,190,909 10,430,037 293,650,086 43.7% 5.7% 15.7%
2028 226,034,522 60,718,212 34,106,670 14,323,918 295,804,088 42.8% 5.7% 15.8%
2029 226,034,522 60,338,336 33,986,605 18,442,044 298,026,477 41.8% 5.7% 15.8%
2030 226,034,522 59,881,021 33,828,640 22,794,366 300,319,416 40.9% 5.8% 15.9%
2031 226,034,522 59,341,963 33,630,609 27,391,230 302,685,139 40.0% 5.8% 15.9%
2032 226,034,522 58,716,669 33,390,251 32,243,391 305,125,949 39.2% 5.8% 16.0%
2033 226,034,522 58,000,449 33,105,203 37,362,030 307,644,222 38.4% 5.8% 16.0%
2034 - 57,188,411 32,773,002 42,758,767 84,207,887 10.2% 5.9% 16.1%
2035 - 56,275,450 32,391,074 48,445,683 86,888,516 10.2% 5.9% 16.1%
2036 - 55,256,242 31,956,734 54,435,331 89,654,196 10.2% 5.9% 16.2%
2037 - 54,125,233 31,467,182 60,740,757 92,507,618 10.2% 6.0% 16.2%
2038 - 52,876,634 30,919,496 67,375,517 95,451,556 10.3% 6.0% 16.3%
2039 - 51,504,405 30,310,628 74,353,695 98,488,873 10.3% 6.0% 16.3%
2040 - 50,002,254 29,637,401 81,689,927 101,622,523 10.3% 6.1% 16.4%
2041 - 48,363,621 28,896,500 89,399,413 104,855,552 10.3% 6.1% 16.4%
2042 - 46,581,666 28,084,472 97,497,949 108,191,102 10.3% 6.1% 16.5%
2043 - 44,649,268 27,197,715 106,001,936 111,632,415 10.4% 6.1% 16.5%
2044 - 42,559,002 26,232,477 114,928,415 115,182,835 10.4% 6.2% 16.5%
2045 - 40,303,136 25,184,846 124,295,081 118,845,812 10.4% 6.2% 16.6%
2046 - 37,873,615 24,050,748 134,120,311 122,624,902 10.4% 6.2% 16.6%
2047 - 35,262,049 22,825,939 144,423,190 126,523,776 10.4% 6.3% 16.7%
2048 - 32,459,704 21,505,994 155,223,533 130,546,221 10.4% 6.3% 16.7%
2049 - 29,457,482 20,086,310 166,541,915 134,696,140 10.5% 6.3% 16.8%
2050 - 26,245,912 18,562,090 178,399,699 138,977,564 10.5% 6.4% 16.8%
2051 - 22,815,137 16,928,338 190,819,063 143,394,646 10.5% 6.4% 16.9%
2052 - 19,154,894 15,179,856 203,823,029 147,951,673 10.5% 6.4% 16.9%
2053 - 15,254,503 13,311,229 217,435,495 152,653,067 10.5% 6.4% 17.0%
2054 - 11,102,849 11,316,823 231,681,269 157,503,388 10.6% 6.5% 17.0%
2055 - 10,292,341 10,490,695 241,962,087 162,750,086 10.6% 6.5% 17.1%
2056 - 9,423,210 9,604,814 252,651,240 168,169,832 10.6% 6.5% 17.2%
2057 - 8,492,668 8,656,338 263,763,977 173,768,289 10.7% 6.6% 17.2%
2058 - 7,497,813 7,642,310 275,316,091 179,551,300 10.7% 6.6% 17.3%
2059 - 6,435,623 6,559,650 287,323,945 185,524,900 10.7% 6.6% 17.4%
2060 - 5,302,953 5,405,151 299,804,486 191,695,320 10.8% 6.7% 17.4%
2061 - 4,096,531 4,175,479 312,775,267 198,068,992 10.8% 6.7% 17.5%
2062 - 2,812,951 2,867,163 326,254,472 204,652,560 10.8% 6.7% 17.6%
2063 - 1,448,670 1,476,589 340,260,931 211,452,879 10.9% 6.8% 17.6%
2064 - - - 354,814,148 218,477,030 10.9% 6.8% 17.7%
Milwaukee City - UAAL 10 years
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS D-16
Milwaukee City
Scenario 3c – Milwaukee New Hires Join WRS after 1/24, 6.8% Rate of Return for Milwaukee Plans
with 10-Year Amortization of UAAL
WRS Total Total Total Total
UAAL Employer Employee ER+EE Employer EmployerEmployee Normal
Payment Normal CostContribution Cost Cost Cost Cost Cost
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
2024 314,983,857$ 77,827,731$ 34,248,096$ - $ 392,811,588$ 63.9% 5.6% 18.2%
2025 314,983,857 77,701,437 34,259,763 3,277,103 394,756,112 62.4% 5.6% 18.2%
2026 314,983,857 77,497,520 34,241,306 6,750,833 396,747,262 60.8% 5.6% 18.2%
2027 314,983,857 77,211,437 34,190,909 10,430,037 398,786,086 59.4% 5.7% 18.1%
2028 314,983,857 76,838,442 34,106,670 14,323,918 400,873,653 57.9% 5.7% 18.1%
2029 314,983,857 76,373,576 33,986,605 18,442,044 403,011,052 56.6% 5.7% 18.1%
2030 314,983,857 75,811,664 33,828,640 22,794,366 405,199,393 55.2% 5.8% 18.0%
2031 314,983,857 75,147,300 33,630,609 27,391,230 407,439,811 53.9% 5.8% 18.0%
2032 314,983,857 74,374,845 33,390,251 32,243,391 409,733,460 52.6% 5.8% 18.0%
2033 314,983,857 73,488,410 33,105,203 37,362,030 412,081,518 51.4% 5.8% 18.0%
2034 - 72,481,851 32,773,002 42,758,767 99,501,327 12.0% 5.9% 17.9%
2035 - 71,348,759 32,391,074 48,445,683 101,961,825 12.0% 5.9% 17.9%
2036 - 70,082,447 31,956,734 54,435,331 104,480,402 11.9% 5.9% 17.9%
2037 - 68,675,944 31,467,182 60,740,757 107,058,328 11.9% 6.0% 17.8%
2038 - 67,121,976 30,919,496 67,375,517 109,696,898 11.8% 6.0% 17.8%
2039 - 65,412,961 30,310,628 74,353,695 112,397,428 11.7% 6.0% 17.8%
2040 - 63,540,996 29,637,401 81,689,927 115,161,264 11.7% 6.1% 17.7%
2041 - 61,497,841 28,896,500 89,399,413 117,989,772 11.6% 6.1% 17.7%
2042 - 59,274,910 28,084,472 97,497,949 120,884,345 11.6% 6.1% 17.7%
2043 - 56,863,255 27,197,715 106,001,936 123,846,402 11.5% 6.1% 17.6%
2044 - 54,253,553 26,232,477 114,928,415 126,877,387 11.4% 6.2% 17.6%
2045 - 51,436,093 25,184,846 124,295,081 129,978,769 11.4% 6.2% 17.6%
2046 - 48,400,756 24,050,748 134,120,311 133,152,044 11.3% 6.2% 17.5%
2047 - 45,137,007 22,825,939 144,423,190 136,398,734 11.2% 6.3% 17.5%
2048 - 41,633,872 21,505,994 155,223,533 139,720,389 11.2% 6.3% 17.5%
2049 - 37,879,926 20,086,310 166,541,915 143,118,585 11.1% 6.3% 17.4%
2050 - 33,863,273 18,562,090 178,399,699 146,594,924 11.1% 6.4% 17.4%
2051 - 29,571,528 16,928,338 190,819,063 150,151,037 11.0% 6.4% 17.4%
2052 - 24,991,802 15,179,856 203,823,029 153,788,581 10.9% 6.4% 17.4%
2053 - 20,110,678 13,311,229 217,435,495 157,509,242 10.9% 6.4% 17.3%
2054 - 14,914,194 11,316,823 231,681,269 161,314,732 10.8% 6.5% 17.3%
2055 - 13,825,457 10,490,695 241,962,087 166,283,202 10.8% 6.5% 17.3%
2056 - 12,657,974 9,604,814 252,651,240 171,404,596 10.8% 6.5% 17.4%
2057 - 11,407,999 8,656,338 263,763,977 176,683,620 10.8% 6.6% 17.4%
2058 - 10,071,634 7,642,310 275,316,091 182,125,121 10.8% 6.6% 17.5%
2059 - 8,644,819 6,559,650 287,323,945 187,734,096 10.9% 6.6% 17.5%
2060 - 7,123,331 5,405,151 299,804,486 193,515,697 10.9% 6.7% 17.5%
2061 - 5,502,773 4,175,479 312,775,267 199,475,234 10.9% 6.7% 17.6%
2062 - 3,778,571 2,867,163 326,254,472 205,618,179 10.9% 6.7% 17.6%
2063 - 1,945,964 1,476,589 340,260,931 211,950,173 10.9% 6.8% 17.7%
2064 - - - 354,814,148 218,477,030 10.9% 6.8% 17.7%
Milwaukee City - UAAL 10 years
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS D-17
Milwaukee City
Scenario 4c – Milwaukee New Hires Join WRS after 1/24, 5.8% Rate of Return for Milwaukee Plans
with 10-Year Amortization of UAAL
WRS Total Total Total Total
UAAL Employer Employee ER+EE Employer EmployerEmployee Normal
Payment Normal CostContribution Cost Cost Cost Cost Cost
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
2024 443,366,568$ 105,622,538$ 34,248,096$ - $ 548,989,106$ 89.3% 5.6% 22.8%
2025 443,366,568 105,467,167 34,259,763 3,277,103 550,904,553 87.0% 5.6% 22.6%
2026 443,366,568 105,207,413 34,241,306 6,750,833 552,839,866 84.8% 5.6% 22.4%
2027 443,366,568 104,837,154 34,190,909 10,430,037 554,794,514 82.6% 5.7% 22.3%
2028 443,366,568 104,349,993 34,106,670 14,323,918 556,767,915 80.5% 5.7% 22.1%
2029 443,366,568 103,739,248 33,986,605 18,442,044 558,759,435 78.4% 5.7% 21.9%
2030 443,366,568 102,997,944 33,828,640 22,794,366 560,768,385 76.4% 5.8% 21.7%
2031 443,366,568 102,118,796 33,630,609 27,391,230 562,794,018 74.5% 5.8% 21.6%
2032 443,366,568 101,094,201 33,390,251 32,243,391 564,835,528 72.5% 5.8% 21.4%
2033 443,366,568 99,916,224 33,105,203 37,362,030 566,892,043 70.7% 5.8% 21.2%
2034 - 98,576,583 32,773,002 42,758,767 125,596,059 15.2% 5.9% 21.1%
2035 - 97,066,639 32,391,074 48,445,683 127,679,706 15.0% 5.9% 20.9%
2036 - 95,377,380 31,956,734 54,435,331 129,775,335 14.8% 5.9% 20.7%
2037 - 93,499,405 31,467,182 60,740,757 131,881,789 14.6% 6.0% 20.6%
2038 - 91,422,912 30,919,496 67,375,517 133,997,834 14.4% 6.0% 20.4%
2039 - 89,137,680 30,310,628 74,353,695 136,122,147 14.2% 6.0% 20.2%
2040 - 86,633,053 29,637,401 81,689,927 138,253,321 14.0% 6.1% 20.1%
2041 - 83,897,925 28,896,500 89,399,413 140,389,856 13.8% 6.1% 19.9%
2042 - 80,920,719 28,084,472 97,497,949 142,530,154 13.6% 6.1% 19.7%
2043 - 77,689,373 27,197,715 106,001,936 144,672,520 13.4% 6.1% 19.6%
2044 - 74,191,317 26,232,477 114,928,415 146,815,151 13.2% 6.2% 19.4%
2045 - 70,413,458 25,184,846 124,295,081 148,956,134 13.0% 6.2% 19.2%
2046 - 66,342,155 24,050,748 134,120,311 151,093,442 12.8% 6.2% 19.1%
2047 - 61,963,202 22,825,939 144,423,190 153,224,929 12.6% 6.3% 18.9%
2048 - 57,261,803 21,505,994 155,223,533 155,348,320 12.4% 6.3% 18.7%
2049 - 52,222,554 20,086,310 166,541,915 157,461,213 12.2% 6.3% 18.6%
2050 - 46,829,414 18,562,090 178,399,699 159,561,066 12.0% 6.4% 18.4%
2051 - 41,065,686 16,928,338 190,819,063 161,645,194 11.8% 6.4% 18.2%
2052 - 34,913,987 15,179,856 203,823,029 163,710,766 11.6% 6.4% 18.1%
2053 - 28,356,227 13,311,229 217,435,495 165,754,791 11.4% 6.4% 17.9%
2054 - 21,373,579 11,316,823 231,681,269 167,774,118 11.2% 6.5% 17.7%
2055 - 19,813,308 10,490,695 241,962,087 172,271,052 11.2% 6.5% 17.7%
2056 - 18,140,184 9,604,814 252,651,240 176,886,806 11.2% 6.5% 17.7%
2057 - 16,348,841 8,656,338 263,763,977 181,624,461 11.1% 6.6% 17.7%
2058 - 14,433,691 7,642,310 275,316,091 186,487,178 11.1% 6.6% 17.7%
2059 - 12,388,918 6,559,650 287,323,945 191,478,195 11.1% 6.6% 17.7%
2060 - 10,208,469 5,405,151 299,804,486 196,600,835 11.0% 6.7% 17.7%
2061 - 7,886,042 4,175,479 312,775,267 201,858,503 11.0% 6.7% 17.7%
2062 - 5,415,082 2,867,163 326,254,472 207,254,690 11.0% 6.7% 17.7%
2063 - 2,788,767 1,476,589 340,260,931 212,792,976 10.9% 6.8% 17.7%
2064 - - - 354,814,148 218,477,030 10.9% 6.8% 17.7%
Milwaukee City - UAAL 10 years
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS D-18
Milwaukee County
Scenario 1a – Baseline Results (Milwaukee Status Quo) with 30-Year Amortization of UAAL WRS Total Total Total Total
UAAL Employer Employee ER+EE Employer EmployerEmployee Normal
Payment Normal CostContribution Cost Cost Cost Cost Cost
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
2024 43,473,989$ 9,888,188$ 9,888,188$ - $ 53,362,177$ 25.2% 4.7% 9.3%
2025 43,473,989 10,167,631 10,167,631 - 53,641,620 24.6% 4.7% 9.3%
2026 43,473,989 10,460,535 10,460,535 - 53,934,524 24.0% 4.7% 9.3%
2027 43,473,989 10,765,044 10,765,044 - 54,239,033 23.5% 4.7% 9.3%
2028 43,473,989 11,083,943 11,083,943 - 54,557,932 23.0% 4.7% 9.3%
2029 43,473,989 11,418,160 11,418,160 - 54,892,149 22.4% 4.7% 9.3%
2030 43,473,989 11,769,553 11,769,553 - 55,243,542 21.9% 4.7% 9.3%
2031 43,473,989 12,135,799 12,135,799 - 55,609,788 21.4% 4.7% 9.3%
2032 43,473,989 12,515,971 12,515,971 - 55,989,960 20.9% 4.7% 9.3%
2033 43,473,989 12,913,782 12,913,782 - 56,387,771 20.4% 4.7% 9.3%
2034 43,473,989 13,327,376 13,327,376 - 56,801,365 19.9% 4.7% 9.3%
2035 43,473,989 13,760,466 13,760,466 - 57,234,455 19.4% 4.7% 9.3%
2036 43,473,989 14,212,588 14,212,588 - 57,686,577 18.9% 4.7% 9.3%
2037 43,473,989 14,684,205 14,684,205 - 58,158,194 18.5% 4.7% 9.3%
2038 43,473,989 15,175,319 15,175,319 - 58,649,308 18.0% 4.7% 9.3%
2039 43,473,989 15,687,785 15,687,785 - 59,161,774 17.6% 4.7% 9.3%
2040 43,473,989 16,218,819 16,218,819 - 59,692,808 17.2% 4.7% 9.3%
2041 43,473,989 16,769,814 16,769,814 - 60,243,803 16.8% 4.7% 9.3%
2042 43,473,989 17,340,768 17,340,768 - 60,814,757 16.4% 4.7% 9.3%
2043 43,473,989 17,933,540 17,933,540 - 61,407,528 16.0% 4.7% 9.3%
2044 43,473,989 18,561,213 18,561,213 - 62,035,202 15.6% 4.7% 9.3%
2045 43,473,989 19,210,856 19,210,856 - 62,684,845 15.2% 4.7% 9.3%
2046 43,473,989 19,883,236 19,883,236 - 63,357,225 14.9% 4.7% 9.3%
2047 43,473,989 20,579,149 20,579,149 - 64,053,138 14.5% 4.7% 9.3%
2048 43,473,989 21,299,419 21,299,419 - 64,773,408 14.2% 4.7% 9.3%
2049 43,473,989 22,044,899 22,044,899 - 65,518,888 13.9% 4.7% 9.3%
2050 43,473,989 22,816,470 22,816,470 - 66,290,459 13.6% 4.7% 9.3%
2051 43,473,989 23,615,047 23,615,047 - 67,089,036 13.3% 4.7% 9.3%
2052 43,473,989 24,441,574 24,441,574 - 67,915,563 13.0% 4.7% 9.3%
2053 43,473,989 25,297,029 25,297,029 - 68,771,018 12.7% 4.7% 9.3%
2054 - 26,182,425 26,182,425 - 26,182,425 4.7% 4.7% 9.3%
2055 - 27,098,810 27,098,810 - 27,098,810 4.7% 4.7% 9.3%
2056 - 28,047,268 28,047,268 - 28,047,268 4.7% 4.7% 9.3%
2057 - 29,028,922 29,028,922 - 29,028,922 4.7% 4.7% 9.3%
2058 - 30,044,935 30,044,935 - 30,044,935 4.7% 4.7% 9.3%
2059 - 31,096,507 31,096,507 - 31,096,507 4.7% 4.7% 9.3%
2060 - 32,184,885 32,184,885 - 32,184,885 4.7% 4.7% 9.3%
2061 - 33,311,356 33,311,356 - 33,311,356 4.7% 4.7% 9.3%
2062 - 34,477,253 34,477,253 - 34,477,253 4.7% 4.7% 9.3%
2063 - 35,683,957 35,683,957 - 35,683,957 4.7% 4.7% 9.3%
2064 - 36,932,896 36,932,896 - 36,932,896 4.7% 4.7% 9.3%
Milwaukee County - UAAL 30 years
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS D-19
Milwaukee County
Scenario 2a – Milwaukee New Hires Join WRS after 1/24, 7.5% Rate of Return for Milwaukee Plans
with 30-Year Amortization of UAAL
WRS Total Total Total Total
UAAL Employer Employee ER+EE Employer EmployerEmployee Normal
Payment Normal CostContribution Cost Cost Cost Cost Cost
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
2024 43,473,989$ 9,888,188$ 9,888,188$ - $ 53,362,177$ 25.2% 4.7% 9.3%
2025 43,473,989 8,982,552 8,982,552 3,597,863 54,326,751 24.9% 4.9% 9.9%
2026 43,473,989 8,290,908 8,290,908 6,586,922 55,188,854 24.6% 5.1% 10.3%
2027 43,473,989 7,709,742 7,709,742 9,275,807 56,005,400 24.3% 5.3% 10.7%
2028 43,473,989 7,213,058 7,213,058 11,751,892 56,795,813 23.9% 5.4% 11.0%
2029 43,473,989 6,767,899 6,767,899 14,118,054 57,580,612 23.5% 5.5% 11.3%
2030 43,473,989 6,970,936 6,970,936 14,568,457 58,017,773 23.0% 5.5% 11.3%
2031 43,473,989 6,345,485 6,345,485 17,579,219 58,957,350 22.7% 5.7% 11.6%
2032 43,473,989 5,945,817 5,945,817 19,946,790 59,788,373 22.3% 5.8% 11.9%
2033 43,473,989 5,554,041 5,554,041 22,343,956 60,642,670 21.9% 5.9% 12.1%
2034 43,473,989 5,191,508 5,191,508 24,700,254 61,504,967 21.5% 6.0% 12.3%
2035 43,473,989 4,844,293 4,844,293 27,069,234 62,389,175 21.1% 6.0% 12.5%
2036 43,473,989 4,516,575 4,516,575 29,436,806 63,292,147 20.8% 6.1% 12.6%
2037 43,473,989 4,192,569 4,192,569 31,852,293 64,223,739 20.4% 6.2% 12.8%
2038 43,473,989 3,882,490 3,882,490 34,284,691 65,178,048 20.0% 6.3% 12.9%
2039 43,473,989 3,587,729 3,587,729 36,735,409 66,157,198 19.7% 6.3% 13.1%
2040 43,473,989 3,302,252 3,302,252 39,214,313 67,160,283 19.3% 6.4% 13.2%
2041 43,473,989 3,025,130 3,025,130 41,728,448 68,190,037 19.0% 6.4% 13.3%
2042 43,473,989 2,767,969 2,767,969 44,242,584 69,239,751 18.6% 6.5% 13.4%
2043 43,473,989 2,525,197 2,525,197 46,779,267 70,315,576 18.3% 6.5% 13.5%
2044 43,473,989 2,296,815 2,296,815 49,378,227 71,438,163 18.0% 6.5% 13.6%
2045 43,473,989 2,067,134 2,067,134 52,047,828 72,596,170 17.6% 6.6% 13.6%
2046 43,473,989 1,860,420 1,860,420 54,716,729 73,776,782 17.3% 6.6% 13.7%
2047 43,473,989 1,674,378 1,674,378 57,394,319 74,982,581 17.0% 6.6% 13.8%
2048 43,473,989 1,506,940 1,506,940 60,089,374 76,216,063 16.7% 6.6% 13.8%
2049 43,473,989 1,356,246 1,356,246 62,810,130 77,479,649 16.4% 6.7% 13.9%
2050 43,473,989 1,220,622 1,220,622 65,564,351 78,775,699 16.1% 6.7% 13.9%
2051 43,473,989 1,098,560 1,098,560 68,359,382 80,106,526 15.8% 6.7% 13.9%
2052 43,473,989 988,704 988,704 71,202,212 81,474,405 15.5% 6.7% 14.0%
2053 43,473,989 889,833 889,833 74,099,515 82,881,585 15.3% 6.7% 14.0%
2054 - 800,850 800,850 77,057,702 40,856,312 7.3% 6.7% 14.0%
2055 - 720,765 720,765 80,082,954 42,348,787 7.3% 6.7% 14.0%
2056 - 648,688 648,688 83,181,267 43,887,249 7.3% 6.8% 14.0%
2057 - 583,820 583,820 86,358,481 45,473,931 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2058 - 525,438 525,438 89,620,309 47,111,085 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2059 - 472,894 472,894 92,972,374 48,800,982 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2060 - 425,604 425,604 96,420,225 50,545,924 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2061 - 383,044 383,044 99,969,370 52,348,249 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2062 - 344,740 344,740 103,625,291 54,210,334 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2063 - 310,266 310,266 107,393,469 56,134,602 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2064 - 279,239 279,239 111,279,405 58,123,528 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
Milwaukee County - UAAL 30 years
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS D-20
Milwaukee County
Scenario 3a – Milwaukee New Hires Join WRS after 1/24, 6.8% Rate of Return for Milwaukee Plans
with 30-Year Amortization of UAAL
WRS Total Total Total Total
UAAL Employer Employee ER+EE Employer EmployerEmployee Normal
Payment Normal CostContribution Cost Cost Cost Cost Cost
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
2024 53,788,556$ 11,573,529$ 11,573,529$ - $ 65,362,085$ 30.8% 5.5% 10.9%
2025 53,788,556 10,513,537 10,513,537 3,597,863 66,172,302 30.4% 5.6% 11.3%
2026 53,788,556 9,704,009 9,704,009 6,586,922 66,916,521 29.8% 5.7% 11.6%
2027 53,788,556 9,023,789 9,023,789 9,275,807 67,634,013 29.3% 5.8% 11.8%
2028 53,788,556 8,442,450 8,442,450 11,751,892 68,339,772 28.8% 5.9% 12.1%
2029 53,788,556 7,921,418 7,921,418 14,118,054 69,048,698 28.2% 6.0% 12.2%
2030 53,788,556 8,159,061 8,159,061 14,568,457 69,520,465 27.6% 6.0% 12.2%
2031 53,788,556 7,427,009 7,427,009 17,579,219 70,353,441 27.0% 6.1% 12.5%
2032 53,788,556 6,959,221 6,959,221 19,946,790 71,116,343 26.5% 6.2% 12.6%
2033 53,788,556 6,500,670 6,500,670 22,343,956 71,903,866 26.0% 6.2% 12.8%
2034 53,788,556 6,076,347 6,076,347 24,700,254 72,704,373 25.4% 6.3% 12.9%
2035 53,788,556 5,669,954 5,669,954 27,069,234 73,529,402 24.9% 6.3% 13.0%
2036 53,788,556 5,286,379 5,286,379 29,436,806 74,376,518 24.4% 6.4% 13.1%
2037 53,788,556 4,907,150 4,907,150 31,852,293 75,252,887 23.9% 6.4% 13.2%
2038 53,788,556 4,544,221 4,544,221 34,284,691 76,154,345 23.4% 6.5% 13.3%
2039 53,788,556 4,199,221 4,199,221 36,735,409 77,083,256 22.9% 6.5% 13.4%
2040 53,788,556 3,865,087 3,865,087 39,214,313 78,037,685 22.4% 6.5% 13.5%
2041 53,788,556 3,540,733 3,540,733 41,728,448 79,020,206 22.0% 6.6% 13.6%
2042 53,788,556 3,239,741 3,239,741 44,242,584 80,026,090 21.5% 6.6% 13.6%
2043 53,788,556 2,955,591 2,955,591 46,779,267 81,060,537 21.1% 6.6% 13.7%
2044 53,788,556 2,688,284 2,688,284 49,378,227 82,144,198 20.6% 6.6% 13.8%
2045 53,788,556 2,419,455 2,419,455 52,047,828 83,263,059 20.2% 6.7% 13.8%
2046 53,788,556 2,177,510 2,177,510 54,716,729 84,408,438 19.8% 6.7% 13.9%
2047 53,788,556 1,959,759 1,959,759 57,394,319 85,582,529 19.4% 6.7% 13.9%
2048 53,788,556 1,763,783 1,763,783 60,089,374 86,787,473 19.0% 6.7% 13.9%
2049 53,788,556 1,587,405 1,587,405 62,810,130 88,025,374 18.6% 6.7% 14.0%
2050 53,788,556 1,428,664 1,428,664 65,564,351 89,298,308 18.3% 6.7% 14.0%
2051 53,788,556 1,285,798 1,285,798 68,359,382 90,608,331 17.9% 6.7% 14.0%
2052 53,788,556 1,157,218 1,157,218 71,202,212 91,957,486 17.5% 6.7% 14.0%
2053 53,788,556 1,041,496 1,041,496 74,099,515 93,347,815 17.2% 6.8% 14.0%
2054 - 937,347 937,347 77,057,702 40,992,808 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2055 - 843,612 843,612 80,082,954 42,471,634 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2056 - 759,251 759,251 83,181,267 43,997,811 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2057 - 683,326 683,326 86,358,481 45,573,437 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2058 - 614,993 614,993 89,620,309 47,200,640 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2059 - 553,494 553,494 92,972,374 48,881,582 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2060 - 498,144 498,144 96,420,225 50,618,464 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2061 - 448,330 448,330 99,969,370 52,413,535 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2062 - 403,497 403,497 103,625,291 54,269,091 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2063 - 363,147 363,147 107,393,469 56,187,483 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2064 - 326,833 326,833 111,279,405 58,171,122 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
Milwaukee County - UAAL 30 years
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS D-21
Milwaukee County
Scenario 4a – Milwaukee New Hires Join WRS after 1/24, 5.8% Rate of Return for Milwaukee Plans
with 30-Year Amortization of UAAL
WRS Total Total Total Total
UAAL Employer Employee ER+EE Employer EmployerEmployee Normal
Payment Normal CostContribution Cost Cost Cost Cost Cost
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
2024 69,253,760$ 14,476,370$ 14,476,370$ - $ 83,730,129$ 39.5% 6.8% 13.7%
2025 69,253,760 13,150,513 13,150,513 3,597,863 84,274,482 38.7% 6.8% 13.7%
2026 69,253,760 12,137,942 12,137,942 6,586,922 84,815,658 37.8% 6.8% 13.8%
2027 69,253,760 11,287,110 11,287,110 9,275,807 85,362,539 37.0% 6.8% 13.8%
2028 69,253,760 10,559,962 10,559,962 11,751,892 85,922,488 36.2% 6.8% 13.8%
2029 69,253,760 9,908,247 9,908,247 14,118,054 86,500,730 35.3% 6.8% 13.9%
2030 69,253,760 10,205,494 10,205,494 14,568,457 87,032,102 34.5% 6.8% 13.9%
2031 69,253,760 9,289,831 9,289,831 17,579,219 87,681,466 33.7% 6.8% 13.9%
2032 69,253,760 8,704,714 8,704,714 19,946,790 88,327,040 32.9% 6.8% 13.9%
2033 69,253,760 8,131,150 8,131,150 22,343,956 88,999,550 32.1% 6.8% 13.9%
2034 69,253,760 7,600,400 7,600,400 24,700,254 89,693,630 31.4% 6.8% 14.0%
2035 69,253,760 7,092,076 7,092,076 27,069,234 90,416,728 30.6% 6.8% 14.0%
2036 69,253,760 6,612,294 6,612,294 29,436,806 91,167,637 29.9% 6.8% 14.0%
2037 69,253,760 6,137,948 6,137,948 31,852,293 91,948,888 29.2% 6.8% 14.0%
2038 69,253,760 5,683,990 5,683,990 34,284,691 92,759,318 28.5% 6.8% 14.0%
2039 69,253,760 5,252,458 5,252,458 36,735,409 93,601,697 27.8% 6.8% 14.0%
2040 69,253,760 4,834,518 4,834,518 39,214,313 94,472,319 27.2% 6.8% 14.1%
2041 69,253,760 4,428,810 4,428,810 41,728,448 95,373,487 26.5% 6.8% 14.1%
2042 69,253,760 4,052,323 4,052,323 44,242,584 96,303,877 25.9% 6.8% 14.1%
2043 69,253,760 3,696,904 3,696,904 46,779,267 97,267,054 25.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2044 69,253,760 3,362,552 3,362,552 49,378,227 98,283,670 24.7% 6.8% 14.1%
2045 69,253,760 3,026,297 3,026,297 52,047,828 99,335,104 24.1% 6.8% 14.1%
2046 69,253,760 2,723,667 2,723,667 54,716,729 100,419,799 23.6% 6.8% 14.1%
2047 69,253,760 2,451,300 2,451,300 57,394,319 101,539,274 23.0% 6.8% 14.1%
2048 69,253,760 2,206,170 2,206,170 60,089,374 102,695,064 22.5% 6.8% 14.1%
2049 69,253,760 1,985,553 1,985,553 62,810,130 103,888,727 22.0% 6.8% 14.1%
2050 69,253,760 1,786,998 1,786,998 65,564,351 105,121,846 21.5% 6.8% 14.1%
2051 69,253,760 1,608,298 1,608,298 68,359,382 106,396,035 21.0% 6.8% 14.1%
2052 69,253,760 1,447,468 1,447,468 71,202,212 107,712,940 20.6% 6.8% 14.1%
2053 69,253,760 1,302,721 1,302,721 74,099,515 109,074,244 20.1% 6.8% 14.1%
2054 - 1,172,449 1,172,449 77,057,702 41,227,911 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2055 - 1,055,204 1,055,204 80,082,954 42,683,227 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2056 - 949,684 949,684 83,181,267 44,188,244 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2057 - 854,716 854,716 86,358,481 45,744,827 7.4% 6.8% 14.2%
2058 - 769,244 769,244 89,620,309 47,354,891 7.4% 6.8% 14.2%
2059 - 692,320 692,320 92,972,374 49,020,407 7.4% 6.8% 14.2%
2060 - 623,088 623,088 96,420,225 50,743,408 7.4% 6.8% 14.2%
2061 - 560,779 560,779 99,969,370 52,525,984 7.4% 6.8% 14.2%
2062 - 504,701 504,701 103,625,291 54,370,295 7.4% 6.8% 14.2%
2063 - 454,231 454,231 107,393,469 56,278,567 7.4% 6.8% 14.2%
2064 - 408,808 408,808 111,279,405 58,253,097 7.4% 6.8% 14.2%
Milwaukee County - UAAL 30 years
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS D-22
Milwaukee County
Scenario 1b – Baseline Results (Milwaukee Status Quo) with 20-Year Amortization of UAAL
WRS Total Total Total Total
UAAL Employer Employee ER+EE Employer EmployerEmployee Normal
Payment Normal CostContribution Cost Cost Cost Cost Cost
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
2024 51,157,277$ 9,888,188$ 9,888,188$ - $ 61,045,465$ 28.8% 4.7% 9.3%
2025 51,157,277 10,167,631 10,167,631 - 61,324,907 28.1% 4.7% 9.3%
2026 51,157,277 10,460,535 10,460,535 - 61,617,812 27.5% 4.7% 9.3%
2027 51,157,277 10,765,044 10,765,044 - 61,922,321 26.8% 4.7% 9.3%
2028 51,157,277 11,083,943 11,083,943 - 62,241,220 26.2% 4.7% 9.3%
2029 51,157,277 11,418,160 11,418,160 - 62,575,437 25.6% 4.7% 9.3%
2030 51,157,277 11,769,553 11,769,553 - 62,926,829 24.9% 4.7% 9.3%
2031 51,157,277 12,135,799 12,135,799 - 63,293,076 24.3% 4.7% 9.3%
2032 51,157,277 12,515,971 12,515,971 - 63,673,248 23.7% 4.7% 9.3%
2033 51,157,277 12,913,782 12,913,782 - 64,071,059 23.1% 4.7% 9.3%
2034 51,157,277 13,327,376 13,327,376 - 64,484,653 22.6% 4.7% 9.3%
2035 51,157,277 13,760,466 13,760,466 - 64,917,743 22.0% 4.7% 9.3%
2036 51,157,277 14,212,588 14,212,588 - 65,369,864 21.5% 4.7% 9.3%
2037 51,157,277 14,684,205 14,684,205 - 65,841,482 20.9% 4.7% 9.3%
2038 51,157,277 15,175,319 15,175,319 - 66,332,596 20.4% 4.7% 9.3%
2039 51,157,277 15,687,785 15,687,785 - 66,845,062 19.9% 4.7% 9.3%
2040 51,157,277 16,218,819 16,218,819 - 67,376,096 19.4% 4.7% 9.3%
2041 51,157,277 16,769,814 16,769,814 - 67,927,090 18.9% 4.7% 9.3%
2042 51,157,277 17,340,768 17,340,768 - 68,498,045 18.4% 4.7% 9.3%
2043 51,157,277 17,933,540 17,933,540 - 69,090,816 18.0% 4.7% 9.3%
2044 - 18,561,213 18,561,213 - 18,561,213 4.7% 4.7% 9.3%
2045 - 19,210,856 19,210,856 - 19,210,856 4.7% 4.7% 9.3%
2046 - 19,883,236 19,883,236 - 19,883,236 4.7% 4.7% 9.3%
2047 - 20,579,149 20,579,149 - 20,579,149 4.7% 4.7% 9.3%
2048 - 21,299,419 21,299,419 - 21,299,419 4.7% 4.7% 9.3%
2049 - 22,044,899 22,044,899 - 22,044,899 4.7% 4.7% 9.3%
2050 - 22,816,470 22,816,470 - 22,816,470 4.7% 4.7% 9.3%
2051 - 23,615,047 23,615,047 - 23,615,047 4.7% 4.7% 9.3%
2052 - 24,441,574 24,441,574 - 24,441,574 4.7% 4.7% 9.3%
2053 - 25,297,029 25,297,029 - 25,297,029 4.7% 4.7% 9.3%
2054 - 26,182,425 26,182,425 - 26,182,425 4.7% 4.7% 9.3%
2055 - 27,098,810 27,098,810 - 27,098,810 4.7% 4.7% 9.3%
2056 - 28,047,268 28,047,268 - 28,047,268 4.7% 4.7% 9.3%
2057 - 29,028,922 29,028,922 - 29,028,922 4.7% 4.7% 9.3%
2058 - 30,044,935 30,044,935 - 30,044,935 4.7% 4.7% 9.3%
2059 - 31,096,507 31,096,507 - 31,096,507 4.7% 4.7% 9.3%
2060 - 32,184,885 32,184,885 - 32,184,885 4.7% 4.7% 9.3%
2061 - 33,311,356 33,311,356 - 33,311,356 4.7% 4.7% 9.3%
2062 - 34,477,253 34,477,253 - 34,477,253 4.7% 4.7% 9.3%
2063 - 35,683,957 35,683,957 - 35,683,957 4.7% 4.7% 9.3%
2064 - 36,932,896 36,932,896 - 36,932,896 4.7% 4.7% 9.3%
Milwaukee County - UAAL 20 years
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS D-23
Milwaukee County
Scenario 2b – Milwaukee New Hires Join WRS after 1/24, 7.5% Rate of Return for Milwaukee Plans
with 20-Year Amortization of UAAL
WRS Total Total Total Total
UAAL Employer Employee ER+EE Employer EmployerEmployee Normal
Payment Normal CostContribution Cost Cost Cost Cost Cost
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
2024 51,157,277$ 9,888,188$ 9,888,188$ - $ 61,045,465$ 28.8% 4.7% 9.3%
2025 51,157,277 8,982,552 8,982,552 3,597,863 62,010,039 28.4% 4.9% 9.9%
2026 51,157,277 8,290,908 8,290,908 6,586,922 62,872,141 28.0% 5.1% 10.3%
2027 51,157,277 7,709,742 7,709,742 9,275,807 63,688,687 27.6% 5.3% 10.7%
2028 51,157,277 7,213,058 7,213,058 11,751,892 64,479,100 27.1% 5.4% 11.0%
2029 51,157,277 6,767,899 6,767,899 14,118,054 65,263,899 26.7% 5.5% 11.3%
2030 51,157,277 6,970,936 6,970,936 14,568,457 65,701,061 26.0% 5.5% 11.3%
2031 51,157,277 6,345,485 6,345,485 17,579,219 66,640,638 25.6% 5.7% 11.6%
2032 51,157,277 5,945,817 5,945,817 19,946,790 67,471,660 25.1% 5.8% 11.9%
2033 51,157,277 5,554,041 5,554,041 22,343,956 68,325,957 24.7% 5.9% 12.1%
2034 51,157,277 5,191,508 5,191,508 24,700,254 69,188,255 24.2% 6.0% 12.3%
2035 51,157,277 4,844,293 4,844,293 27,069,234 70,072,463 23.8% 6.0% 12.5%
2036 51,157,277 4,516,575 4,516,575 29,436,806 70,975,435 23.3% 6.1% 12.6%
2037 51,157,277 4,192,569 4,192,569 31,852,293 71,907,027 22.8% 6.2% 12.8%
2038 51,157,277 3,882,490 3,882,490 34,284,691 72,861,335 22.4% 6.3% 12.9%
2039 51,157,277 3,587,729 3,587,729 36,735,409 73,840,485 22.0% 6.3% 13.1%
2040 51,157,277 3,302,252 3,302,252 39,214,313 74,843,570 21.5% 6.4% 13.2%
2041 51,157,277 3,025,130 3,025,130 41,728,448 75,873,324 21.1% 6.4% 13.3%
2042 51,157,277 2,767,969 2,767,969 44,242,584 76,923,039 20.7% 6.5% 13.4%
2043 51,157,277 2,525,197 2,525,197 46,779,267 77,998,864 20.3% 6.5% 13.5%
2044 - 2,296,815 2,296,815 49,378,227 27,964,174 7.0% 6.5% 13.6%
2045 - 2,067,134 2,067,134 52,047,828 29,122,181 7.1% 6.6% 13.6%
2046 - 1,860,420 1,860,420 54,716,729 30,302,793 7.1% 6.6% 13.7%
2047 - 1,674,378 1,674,378 57,394,319 31,508,592 7.1% 6.6% 13.8%
2048 - 1,506,940 1,506,940 60,089,374 32,742,074 7.2% 6.6% 13.8%
2049 - 1,356,246 1,356,246 62,810,130 34,005,660 7.2% 6.7% 13.9%
2050 - 1,220,622 1,220,622 65,564,351 35,301,710 7.2% 6.7% 13.9%
2051 - 1,098,560 1,098,560 68,359,382 36,632,537 7.2% 6.7% 13.9%
2052 - 988,704 988,704 71,202,212 38,000,416 7.3% 6.7% 14.0%
2053 - 889,833 889,833 74,099,515 39,407,596 7.3% 6.7% 14.0%
2054 - 800,850 800,850 77,057,702 40,856,312 7.3% 6.7% 14.0%
2055 - 720,765 720,765 80,082,954 42,348,787 7.3% 6.7% 14.0%
2056 - 648,688 648,688 83,181,267 43,887,249 7.3% 6.8% 14.0%
2057 - 583,820 583,820 86,358,481 45,473,931 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2058 - 525,438 525,438 89,620,309 47,111,085 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2059 - 472,894 472,894 92,972,374 48,800,982 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2060 - 425,604 425,604 96,420,225 50,545,924 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2061 - 383,044 383,044 99,969,370 52,348,249 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2062 - 344,740 344,740 103,625,291 54,210,334 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2063 - 310,266 310,266 107,393,469 56,134,602 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2064 - 279,239 279,239 111,279,405 58,123,528 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
Milwaukee County - UAAL 20 years
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS D-24
Milwaukee County
Scenario 3b – Milwaukee New Hires Join WRS after 1/24, 6.8% Rate of Return for Milwaukee Plans
with 20-Year Amortization of UAAL
WRS Total Total Total Total
UAAL Employer Employee ER+EE Employer EmployerEmployee Normal
Payment Normal CostContribution Cost Cost Cost Cost Cost
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
2024 63,294,768$ 11,573,529$ 11,573,529$ - $ 74,868,297$ 35.3% 5.5% 10.9%
2025 63,294,768 10,513,537 10,513,537 3,597,863 75,678,514 34.7% 5.6% 11.3%
2026 63,294,768 9,704,009 9,704,009 6,586,922 76,422,733 34.1% 5.7% 11.6%
2027 63,294,768 9,023,789 9,023,789 9,275,807 77,140,225 33.4% 5.8% 11.8%
2028 63,294,768 8,442,450 8,442,450 11,751,892 77,845,984 32.8% 5.9% 12.1%
2029 63,294,768 7,921,418 7,921,418 14,118,054 78,554,910 32.1% 6.0% 12.2%
2030 63,294,768 8,159,061 8,159,061 14,568,457 79,026,677 31.3% 6.0% 12.2%
2031 63,294,768 7,427,009 7,427,009 17,579,219 79,859,652 30.7% 6.1% 12.5%
2032 63,294,768 6,959,221 6,959,221 19,946,790 80,622,555 30.0% 6.2% 12.6%
2033 63,294,768 6,500,670 6,500,670 22,343,956 81,410,078 29.4% 6.2% 12.8%
2034 63,294,768 6,076,347 6,076,347 24,700,254 82,210,585 28.8% 6.3% 12.9%
2035 63,294,768 5,669,954 5,669,954 27,069,234 83,035,614 28.1% 6.3% 13.0%
2036 63,294,768 5,286,379 5,286,379 29,436,806 83,882,730 27.5% 6.4% 13.1%
2037 63,294,768 4,907,150 4,907,150 31,852,293 84,759,099 26.9% 6.4% 13.2%
2038 63,294,768 4,544,221 4,544,221 34,284,691 85,660,557 26.3% 6.5% 13.3%
2039 63,294,768 4,199,221 4,199,221 36,735,409 86,589,468 25.7% 6.5% 13.4%
2040 63,294,768 3,865,087 3,865,087 39,214,313 87,543,896 25.2% 6.5% 13.5%
2041 63,294,768 3,540,733 3,540,733 41,728,448 88,526,418 24.6% 6.6% 13.6%
2042 63,294,768 3,239,741 3,239,741 44,242,584 89,532,302 24.1% 6.6% 13.6%
2043 63,294,768 2,955,591 2,955,591 46,779,267 90,566,749 23.6% 6.6% 13.7%
2044 - 2,688,284 2,688,284 49,378,227 28,355,643 7.1% 6.6% 13.8%
2045 - 2,419,455 2,419,455 52,047,828 29,474,503 7.2% 6.7% 13.8%
2046 - 2,177,510 2,177,510 54,716,729 30,619,882 7.2% 6.7% 13.9%
2047 - 1,959,759 1,959,759 57,394,319 31,793,973 7.2% 6.7% 13.9%
2048 - 1,763,783 1,763,783 60,089,374 32,998,917 7.2% 6.7% 13.9%
2049 - 1,587,405 1,587,405 62,810,130 34,236,819 7.2% 6.7% 14.0%
2050 - 1,428,664 1,428,664 65,564,351 35,509,753 7.3% 6.7% 14.0%
2051 - 1,285,798 1,285,798 68,359,382 36,819,775 7.3% 6.7% 14.0%
2052 - 1,157,218 1,157,218 71,202,212 38,168,930 7.3% 6.7% 14.0%
2053 - 1,041,496 1,041,496 74,099,515 39,559,259 7.3% 6.8% 14.0%
2054 - 937,347 937,347 77,057,702 40,992,808 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2055 - 843,612 843,612 80,082,954 42,471,634 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2056 - 759,251 759,251 83,181,267 43,997,811 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2057 - 683,326 683,326 86,358,481 45,573,437 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2058 - 614,993 614,993 89,620,309 47,200,640 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2059 - 553,494 553,494 92,972,374 48,881,582 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2060 - 498,144 498,144 96,420,225 50,618,464 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2061 - 448,330 448,330 99,969,370 52,413,535 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2062 - 403,497 403,497 103,625,291 54,269,091 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2063 - 363,147 363,147 107,393,469 56,187,483 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2064 - 326,833 326,833 111,279,405 58,171,122 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
Milwaukee County - UAAL 20 years
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS D-25
Milwaukee County
Scenario 4b – Milwaukee New Hires Join WRS after 1/24, 5.8% Rate of Return for Milwaukee Plans
with 20-Year Amortization of UAAL
WRS Total Total Total Total
UAAL Employer Employee ER+EE Employer EmployerEmployee Normal
Payment Normal CostContribution Cost Cost Cost Cost Cost
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
2024 83,545,851$ 14,476,370$ 14,476,370$ - $ 98,022,221$ 46.2% 6.8% 13.7%
2025 83,545,851 13,150,513 13,150,513 3,597,863 98,566,574 45.2% 6.8% 13.7%
2026 83,545,851 12,137,942 12,137,942 6,586,922 99,107,750 44.2% 6.8% 13.8%
2027 83,545,851 11,287,110 11,287,110 9,275,807 99,654,631 43.2% 6.8% 13.8%
2028 83,545,851 10,559,962 10,559,962 11,751,892 100,214,579 42.2% 6.8% 13.8%
2029 83,545,851 9,908,247 9,908,247 14,118,054 100,792,822 41.2% 6.8% 13.9%
2030 83,545,851 10,205,494 10,205,494 14,568,457 101,324,193 40.2% 6.8% 13.9%
2031 83,545,851 9,289,831 9,289,831 17,579,219 101,973,558 39.2% 6.8% 13.9%
2032 83,545,851 8,704,714 8,704,714 19,946,790 102,619,132 38.2% 6.8% 13.9%
2033 83,545,851 8,131,150 8,131,150 22,343,956 103,291,642 37.3% 6.8% 13.9%
2034 83,545,851 7,600,400 7,600,400 24,700,254 103,985,721 36.4% 6.8% 14.0%
2035 83,545,851 7,092,076 7,092,076 27,069,234 104,708,820 35.5% 6.8% 14.0%
2036 83,545,851 6,612,294 6,612,294 29,436,806 105,459,728 34.6% 6.8% 14.0%
2037 83,545,851 6,137,948 6,137,948 31,852,293 106,240,980 33.7% 6.8% 14.0%
2038 83,545,851 5,683,990 5,683,990 34,284,691 107,051,410 32.9% 6.8% 14.0%
2039 83,545,851 5,252,458 5,252,458 36,735,409 107,893,789 32.1% 6.8% 14.0%
2040 83,545,851 4,834,518 4,834,518 39,214,313 108,764,411 31.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2041 83,545,851 4,428,810 4,428,810 41,728,448 109,665,579 30.5% 6.8% 14.1%
2042 83,545,851 4,052,323 4,052,323 44,242,584 110,595,968 29.7% 6.8% 14.1%
2043 83,545,851 3,696,904 3,696,904 46,779,267 111,559,146 29.0% 6.8% 14.1%
2044 - 3,362,552 3,362,552 49,378,227 29,029,911 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2045 - 3,026,297 3,026,297 52,047,828 30,081,344 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2046 - 2,723,667 2,723,667 54,716,729 31,166,039 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2047 - 2,451,300 2,451,300 57,394,319 32,285,514 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2048 - 2,206,170 2,206,170 60,089,374 33,441,304 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2049 - 1,985,553 1,985,553 62,810,130 34,634,967 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2050 - 1,786,998 1,786,998 65,564,351 35,868,086 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2051 - 1,608,298 1,608,298 68,359,382 37,142,275 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2052 - 1,447,468 1,447,468 71,202,212 38,459,180 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2053 - 1,302,721 1,302,721 74,099,515 39,820,485 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2054 - 1,172,449 1,172,449 77,057,702 41,227,911 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2055 - 1,055,204 1,055,204 80,082,954 42,683,227 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2056 - 949,684 949,684 83,181,267 44,188,244 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2057 - 854,716 854,716 86,358,481 45,744,827 7.4% 6.8% 14.2%
2058 - 769,244 769,244 89,620,309 47,354,891 7.4% 6.8% 14.2%
2059 - 692,320 692,320 92,972,374 49,020,407 7.4% 6.8% 14.2%
2060 - 623,088 623,088 96,420,225 50,743,408 7.4% 6.8% 14.2%
2061 - 560,779 560,779 99,969,370 52,525,984 7.4% 6.8% 14.2%
2062 - 504,701 504,701 103,625,291 54,370,295 7.4% 6.8% 14.2%
2063 - 454,231 454,231 107,393,469 56,278,567 7.4% 6.8% 14.2%
2064 - 408,808 408,808 111,279,405 58,253,097 7.4% 6.8% 14.2%
Milwaukee County - UAAL 20 years
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS D-26
Milwaukee County
Scenario 1c – Baseline Results (Milwaukee Status Quo) with 10-Year Amortization of UAAL
WRS Total Total Total Total
UAAL Employer Employee ER+EE Employer EmployerEmployee Normal
Payment Normal CostContribution Cost Cost Cost Cost Cost
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
2024 77,654,166$ 9,888,188$ 9,888,188$ - $ 87,542,354$ 41.3% 4.7% 9.3%
2025 77,654,166 10,167,631 10,167,631 - 87,821,797 40.3% 4.7% 9.3%
2026 77,654,166 10,460,535 10,460,535 - 88,114,701 39.3% 4.7% 9.3%
2027 77,654,166 10,765,044 10,765,044 - 88,419,210 38.3% 4.7% 9.3%
2028 77,654,166 11,083,943 11,083,943 - 88,738,109 37.3% 4.7% 9.3%
2029 77,654,166 11,418,160 11,418,160 - 89,072,326 36.4% 4.7% 9.3%
2030 77,654,166 11,769,553 11,769,553 - 89,423,718 35.4% 4.7% 9.3%
2031 77,654,166 12,135,799 12,135,799 - 89,789,965 34.5% 4.7% 9.3%
2032 77,654,166 12,515,971 12,515,971 - 90,170,137 33.6% 4.7% 9.3%
2033 77,654,166 12,913,782 12,913,782 - 90,567,948 32.7% 4.7% 9.3%
2034 - 13,327,376 13,327,376 - 13,327,376 4.7% 4.7% 9.3%
2035 - 13,760,466 13,760,466 - 13,760,466 4.7% 4.7% 9.3%
2036 - 14,212,588 14,212,588 - 14,212,588 4.7% 4.7% 9.3%
2037 - 14,684,205 14,684,205 - 14,684,205 4.7% 4.7% 9.3%
2038 - 15,175,319 15,175,319 - 15,175,319 4.7% 4.7% 9.3%
2039 - 15,687,785 15,687,785 - 15,687,785 4.7% 4.7% 9.3%
2040 - 16,218,819 16,218,819 - 16,218,819 4.7% 4.7% 9.3%
2041 - 16,769,814 16,769,814 - 16,769,814 4.7% 4.7% 9.3%
2042 - 17,340,768 17,340,768 - 17,340,768 4.7% 4.7% 9.3%
2043 - 17,933,540 17,933,540 - 17,933,540 4.7% 4.7% 9.3%
2044 - 18,561,213 18,561,213 - 18,561,213 4.7% 4.7% 9.3%
2045 - 19,210,856 19,210,856 - 19,210,856 4.7% 4.7% 9.3%
2046 - 19,883,236 19,883,236 - 19,883,236 4.7% 4.7% 9.3%
2047 - 20,579,149 20,579,149 - 20,579,149 4.7% 4.7% 9.3%
2048 - 21,299,419 21,299,419 - 21,299,419 4.7% 4.7% 9.3%
2049 - 22,044,899 22,044,899 - 22,044,899 4.7% 4.7% 9.3%
2050 - 22,816,470 22,816,470 - 22,816,470 4.7% 4.7% 9.3%
2051 - 23,615,047 23,615,047 - 23,615,047 4.7% 4.7% 9.3%
2052 - 24,441,574 24,441,574 - 24,441,574 4.7% 4.7% 9.3%
2053 - 25,297,029 25,297,029 - 25,297,029 4.7% 4.7% 9.3%
2054 - 26,182,425 26,182,425 - 26,182,425 4.7% 4.7% 9.3%
2055 - 27,098,810 27,098,810 - 27,098,810 4.7% 4.7% 9.3%
2056 - 28,047,268 28,047,268 - 28,047,268 4.7% 4.7% 9.3%
2057 - 29,028,922 29,028,922 - 29,028,922 4.7% 4.7% 9.3%
2058 - 30,044,935 30,044,935 - 30,044,935 4.7% 4.7% 9.3%
2059 - 31,096,507 31,096,507 - 31,096,507 4.7% 4.7% 9.3%
2060 - 32,184,885 32,184,885 - 32,184,885 4.7% 4.7% 9.3%
2061 - 33,311,356 33,311,356 - 33,311,356 4.7% 4.7% 9.3%
2062 - 34,477,253 34,477,253 - 34,477,253 4.7% 4.7% 9.3%
2063 - 35,683,957 35,683,957 - 35,683,957 4.7% 4.7% 9.3%
2064 - 36,932,896 36,932,896 - 36,932,896 4.7% 4.7% 9.3%
Milwaukee County - UAAL 10 years
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS D-27
Milwaukee County
Scenario 2c – Milwaukee New Hires Join WRS after 1/24, 7.5% Rate of Return for Milwaukee Plans
with 10-Year Amortization of UAAL
WRS Total Total Total Total
UAAL Employer Employee ER+EE Employer EmployerEmployee Normal
Payment Normal CostContribution Cost Cost Cost Cost Cost
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
2024 77,654,166$ 9,888,188$ 9,888,188$ - $ 87,542,354$ 41.3% 4.7% 9.3%
2025 77,654,166 8,982,552 8,982,552 3,597,863 88,506,928 40.6% 4.9% 9.9%
2026 77,654,166 8,290,908 8,290,908 6,586,922 89,369,030 39.9% 5.1% 10.3%
2027 77,654,166 7,709,742 7,709,742 9,275,807 90,185,576 39.1% 5.3% 10.7%
2028 77,654,166 7,213,058 7,213,058 11,751,892 90,975,990 38.3% 5.4% 11.0%
2029 77,654,166 6,767,899 6,767,899 14,118,054 91,760,789 37.5% 5.5% 11.3%
2030 77,654,166 6,970,936 6,970,936 14,568,457 92,197,950 36.5% 5.5% 11.3%
2031 77,654,166 6,345,485 6,345,485 17,579,219 93,137,527 35.8% 5.7% 11.6%
2032 77,654,166 5,945,817 5,945,817 19,946,790 93,968,550 35.0% 5.8% 11.9%
2033 77,654,166 5,554,041 5,554,041 22,343,956 94,822,847 34.2% 5.9% 12.1%
2034 - 5,191,508 5,191,508 24,700,254 18,030,978 6.3% 6.0% 12.3%
2035 - 4,844,293 4,844,293 27,069,234 18,915,186 6.4% 6.0% 12.5%
2036 - 4,516,575 4,516,575 29,436,806 19,818,158 6.5% 6.1% 12.6%
2037 - 4,192,569 4,192,569 31,852,293 20,749,750 6.6% 6.2% 12.8%
2038 - 3,882,490 3,882,490 34,284,691 21,704,059 6.7% 6.3% 12.9%
2039 - 3,587,729 3,587,729 36,735,409 22,683,209 6.7% 6.3% 13.1%
2040 - 3,302,252 3,302,252 39,214,313 23,686,294 6.8% 6.4% 13.2%
2041 - 3,025,130 3,025,130 41,728,448 24,716,048 6.9% 6.4% 13.3%
2042 - 2,767,969 2,767,969 44,242,584 25,765,762 6.9% 6.5% 13.4%
2043 - 2,525,197 2,525,197 46,779,267 26,841,587 7.0% 6.5% 13.5%
2044 - 2,296,815 2,296,815 49,378,227 27,964,174 7.0% 6.5% 13.6%
2045 - 2,067,134 2,067,134 52,047,828 29,122,181 7.1% 6.6% 13.6%
2046 - 1,860,420 1,860,420 54,716,729 30,302,793 7.1% 6.6% 13.7%
2047 - 1,674,378 1,674,378 57,394,319 31,508,592 7.1% 6.6% 13.8%
2048 - 1,506,940 1,506,940 60,089,374 32,742,074 7.2% 6.6% 13.8%
2049 - 1,356,246 1,356,246 62,810,130 34,005,660 7.2% 6.7% 13.9%
2050 - 1,220,622 1,220,622 65,564,351 35,301,710 7.2% 6.7% 13.9%
2051 - 1,098,560 1,098,560 68,359,382 36,632,537 7.2% 6.7% 13.9%
2052 - 988,704 988,704 71,202,212 38,000,416 7.3% 6.7% 14.0%
2053 - 889,833 889,833 74,099,515 39,407,596 7.3% 6.7% 14.0%
2054 - 800,850 800,850 77,057,702 40,856,312 7.3% 6.7% 14.0%
2055 - 720,765 720,765 80,082,954 42,348,787 7.3% 6.7% 14.0%
2056 - 648,688 648,688 83,181,267 43,887,249 7.3% 6.8% 14.0%
2057 - 583,820 583,820 86,358,481 45,473,931 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2058 - 525,438 525,438 89,620,309 47,111,085 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2059 - 472,894 472,894 92,972,374 48,800,982 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2060 - 425,604 425,604 96,420,225 50,545,924 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2061 - 383,044 383,044 99,969,370 52,348,249 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2062 - 344,740 344,740 103,625,291 54,210,334 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2063 - 310,266 310,266 107,393,469 56,134,602 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2064 - 279,239 279,239 111,279,405 58,123,528 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
Milwaukee County - UAAL 10 years
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS D-28
Milwaukee County
Scenario 3c – Milwaukee New Hires Join WRS after 1/24, 6.8% Rate of Return for Milwaukee Plans
with 10-Year Amortization of UAAL
WRS Total Total Total Total
UAAL Employer Employee ER+EE Employer EmployerEmployee Normal
Payment Normal CostContribution Cost Cost Cost Cost Cost
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
2024 96,078,265$ 11,573,529$ 11,573,529$ - $ 107,651,794$ 50.8% 5.5% 10.9%
2025 96,078,265 10,513,537 10,513,537 3,597,863 108,462,012 49.8% 5.6% 11.3%
2026 96,078,265 9,704,009 9,704,009 6,586,922 109,206,230 48.7% 5.7% 11.6%
2027 96,078,265 9,023,789 9,023,789 9,275,807 109,923,723 47.6% 5.8% 11.8%
2028 96,078,265 8,442,450 8,442,450 11,751,892 110,629,481 46.6% 5.9% 12.1%
2029 96,078,265 7,921,418 7,921,418 14,118,054 111,338,407 45.5% 6.0% 12.2%
2030 96,078,265 8,159,061 8,159,061 14,568,457 111,810,174 44.3% 6.0% 12.2%
2031 96,078,265 7,427,009 7,427,009 17,579,219 112,643,150 43.3% 6.1% 12.5%
2032 96,078,265 6,959,221 6,959,221 19,946,790 113,406,053 42.3% 6.2% 12.6%
2033 96,078,265 6,500,670 6,500,670 22,343,956 114,193,575 41.2% 6.2% 12.8%
2034 - 6,076,347 6,076,347 24,700,254 18,915,818 6.6% 6.3% 12.9%
2035 - 5,669,954 5,669,954 27,069,234 19,740,847 6.7% 6.3% 13.0%
2036 - 5,286,379 5,286,379 29,436,806 20,587,962 6.8% 6.4% 13.1%
2037 - 4,907,150 4,907,150 31,852,293 21,464,331 6.8% 6.4% 13.2%
2038 - 4,544,221 4,544,221 34,284,691 22,365,790 6.9% 6.5% 13.3%
2039 - 4,199,221 4,199,221 36,735,409 23,294,701 6.9% 6.5% 13.4%
2040 - 3,865,087 3,865,087 39,214,313 24,249,129 7.0% 6.5% 13.5%
2041 - 3,540,733 3,540,733 41,728,448 25,231,650 7.0% 6.6% 13.6%
2042 - 3,239,741 3,239,741 44,242,584 26,237,534 7.1% 6.6% 13.6%
2043 - 2,955,591 2,955,591 46,779,267 27,271,981 7.1% 6.6% 13.7%
2044 - 2,688,284 2,688,284 49,378,227 28,355,643 7.1% 6.6% 13.8%
2045 - 2,419,455 2,419,455 52,047,828 29,474,503 7.2% 6.7% 13.8%
2046 - 2,177,510 2,177,510 54,716,729 30,619,882 7.2% 6.7% 13.9%
2047 - 1,959,759 1,959,759 57,394,319 31,793,973 7.2% 6.7% 13.9%
2048 - 1,763,783 1,763,783 60,089,374 32,998,917 7.2% 6.7% 13.9%
2049 - 1,587,405 1,587,405 62,810,130 34,236,819 7.2% 6.7% 14.0%
2050 - 1,428,664 1,428,664 65,564,351 35,509,753 7.3% 6.7% 14.0%
2051 - 1,285,798 1,285,798 68,359,382 36,819,775 7.3% 6.7% 14.0%
2052 - 1,157,218 1,157,218 71,202,212 38,168,930 7.3% 6.7% 14.0%
2053 - 1,041,496 1,041,496 74,099,515 39,559,259 7.3% 6.8% 14.0%
2054 - 937,347 937,347 77,057,702 40,992,808 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2055 - 843,612 843,612 80,082,954 42,471,634 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2056 - 759,251 759,251 83,181,267 43,997,811 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2057 - 683,326 683,326 86,358,481 45,573,437 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2058 - 614,993 614,993 89,620,309 47,200,640 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2059 - 553,494 553,494 92,972,374 48,881,582 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2060 - 498,144 498,144 96,420,225 50,618,464 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2061 - 448,330 448,330 99,969,370 52,413,535 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2062 - 403,497 403,497 103,625,291 54,269,091 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2063 - 363,147 363,147 107,393,469 56,187,483 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2064 - 326,833 326,833 111,279,405 58,171,122 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
Milwaukee County - UAAL 10 years
Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and Entry into the WRS D-29
Milwaukee County
Scenario 4c – Milwaukee New Hires Join WRS after 1/24, 5.8% Rate of Return for Milwaukee Plans
with 10-Year Amortization of UAAL
WRS Total Total Total Total
UAAL Employer Employee ER+EE Employer EmployerEmployee Normal
Payment Normal CostContribution Cost Cost Cost Cost Cost
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
2024 131,086,840$ 14,476,370$ 14,476,370$ - $ 145,563,210$ 68.7% 6.8% 13.7%
2025 131,086,840 13,150,513 13,150,513 3,597,863 146,107,563 67.0% 6.8% 13.7%
2026 131,086,840 12,137,942 12,137,942 6,586,922 146,648,739 65.4% 6.8% 13.8%
2027 131,086,840 11,287,110 11,287,110 9,275,807 147,195,620 63.8% 6.8% 13.8%
2028 131,086,840 10,559,962 10,559,962 11,751,892 147,755,568 62.2% 6.8% 13.8%
2029 131,086,840 9,908,247 9,908,247 14,118,054 148,333,811 60.6% 6.8% 13.9%
2030 131,086,840 10,205,494 10,205,494 14,568,457 148,865,182 59.0% 6.8% 13.9%
2031 131,086,840 9,289,831 9,289,831 17,579,219 149,514,547 57.5% 6.8% 13.9%
2032 131,086,840 8,704,714 8,704,714 19,946,790 150,160,121 56.0% 6.8% 13.9%
2033 131,086,840 8,131,150 8,131,150 22,343,956 150,832,631 54.5% 6.8% 13.9%
2034 - 7,600,400 7,600,400 24,700,254 20,439,870 7.2% 6.8% 14.0%
2035 - 7,092,076 7,092,076 27,069,234 21,162,969 7.2% 6.8% 14.0%
2036 - 6,612,294 6,612,294 29,436,806 21,913,877 7.2% 6.8% 14.0%
2037 - 6,137,948 6,137,948 31,852,293 22,695,129 7.2% 6.8% 14.0%
2038 - 5,683,990 5,683,990 34,284,691 23,505,559 7.2% 6.8% 14.0%
2039 - 5,252,458 5,252,458 36,735,409 24,347,938 7.2% 6.8% 14.0%
2040 - 4,834,518 4,834,518 39,214,313 25,218,559 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2041 - 4,428,810 4,428,810 41,728,448 26,119,727 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2042 - 4,052,323 4,052,323 44,242,584 27,050,117 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2043 - 3,696,904 3,696,904 46,779,267 28,013,295 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2044 - 3,362,552 3,362,552 49,378,227 29,029,911 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2045 - 3,026,297 3,026,297 52,047,828 30,081,344 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2046 - 2,723,667 2,723,667 54,716,729 31,166,039 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2047 - 2,451,300 2,451,300 57,394,319 32,285,514 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2048 - 2,206,170 2,206,170 60,089,374 33,441,304 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2049 - 1,985,553 1,985,553 62,810,130 34,634,967 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2050 - 1,786,998 1,786,998 65,564,351 35,868,086 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2051 - 1,608,298 1,608,298 68,359,382 37,142,275 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2052 - 1,447,468 1,447,468 71,202,212 38,459,180 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2053 - 1,302,721 1,302,721 74,099,515 39,820,485 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2054 - 1,172,449 1,172,449 77,057,702 41,227,911 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2055 - 1,055,204 1,055,204 80,082,954 42,683,227 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2056 - 949,684 949,684 83,181,267 44,188,244 7.3% 6.8% 14.1%
2057 - 854,716 854,716 86,358,481 45,744,827 7.4% 6.8% 14.2%
2058 - 769,244 769,244 89,620,309 47,354,891 7.4% 6.8% 14.2%
2059 - 692,320 692,320 92,972,374 49,020,407 7.4% 6.8% 14.2%
2060 - 623,088 623,088 96,420,225 50,743,408 7.4% 6.8% 14.2%
2061 - 560,779 560,779 99,969,370 52,525,984 7.4% 6.8% 14.2%
2062 - 504,701 504,701 103,625,291 54,370,295 7.4% 6.8% 14.2%
2063 - 454,231 454,231 107,393,469 56,278,567 7.4% 6.8% 14.2%
2064 - 408,808 408,808 111,279,405 58,253,097 7.4% 6.8% 14.2%
Milwaukee County - UAAL 10 years
March 31, 2023
Mr. Matt Stohr
Administrator -- Division of Retirement Services
Wisconsin D.E.T.F.
4822 Madison Yards Way
Madison, Wisconsin 53705
Dear Mr. Stohr:
Enclosed please find an electronic copy of the Analysis of Milwaukee Retirement Systems Closure and
Entry in the WRS.
Sincerely,
Gabriel, Roeder, Smith & Company
James D. Anderson, FSA, EA, FCA, MAAA
JDA:rmn
Enclosures