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1 HOUSE JOINT RESOLUTION NO. 1
2 INTRODUCED BY L. BREWSTER
3 BY REQUEST OF THE REVENUE INTERIM COMMITTEE
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5 A JOINT RESOLUTION OF THE SENATE AND THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES OF THE STATE OF MONTANA ESTABLISHING AN
6 OFFICIAL ESTIMATE OF THE STATE'S GENERAL FUND REVENUE FOR FISCAL YEAR 2025 AND EACH FISCAL YEAR OF THE 2026-2027
7 BIENNIUM FOR THE PURPOSE OF ACHIEVING A BALANCED BUDGET AS REQUIRED BY ARTICLE VIII, SECTION 9, OF THE MONTANA
8 CONSTITUTION; ACCEPTING A PRELIMINARY UNASSIGNED GENERAL FUND BALANCE; ESTABLISHING OFFICIAL ESTIMATES OF
9 CERTAIN NONGENERAL FUND REVENUE; AND REQUESTING THAT THE GOVERNOR'S OFFICE OF BUDGET AND PROGRAM
10 PLANNING USE THE REVENUE ESTIMATES CONTAINED IN THIS RESOLUTION AS OFFICIAL ESTIMATES FOR FISCAL YEARS 2025,
11 2026, AND 2027.
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13 WHEREAS, Article VI, section 9, of the Montana Constitution requires the Governor to submit to the Legislature a budget for the ensuing
14 fiscal period, containing in detail for all operating funds the proposed expenditures and estimated revenue of the state; and
15 WHEREAS, Article VIII, section 9, of the Montana Constitution prohibits the Legislature from appropriating funds in excess of the
16 anticipated revenue of the state; and
17 WHEREAS, section 5-5-227(2), MCA, requires the Revenue Interim Committee to estimate the amount of revenue projected to be
18 available for legislative appropriation and to introduce a resolution setting forth the Committee's current revenue estimate; and
19 WHEREAS, section 5-5-227(3), MCA, expresses the Legislature's intent that its revenue estimates and the underlying assumptions used
20 to derive those estimates be used by all agencies in the development of fiscal notes; and
21 WHEREAS, the Revenue Interim Committee obtained the assistance of the Legislative Fiscal Analyst in the development of the revenue 69th Legislature 2025 HJ 1.1
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1 estimates; and
2 WHEREAS, the Revenue Interim Committee also obtained the assistance of Executive Branch agencies in the development of the
3 revenue estimates; and
4 WHEREAS, the Revenue Interim Committee has adopted revenue estimates and the underlying assumptions used to derive those
5 estimates for the general fund and for specific nongeneral fund sources that are significant in the development of the state budget for fiscal year
6 2025 and the 2026-2027 biennium; and
7 WHEREAS, section 5-5-227(3), MCA, provides that the Revenue Interim Committee's estimate, as introduced in the Legislature,
8 constitutes the Legislature's current revenue estimate until amended or until final adoption of the estimate by both houses; and
9 WHEREAS, the amount of estimated revenue and the general fund balance affects policy decisions of the Executive Branch and the
10 Legislative Branch; and
11 WHEREAS, the revenue estimates and the underlying assumptions contained in this resolution provide the basis for a comprehensive
12 analysis of the state's revenue condition.
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14 NOW, THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED BY THE SENATE AND THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES OF THE STATE OF MONTANA:
15 That the state general fund revenue for fiscal years 2025, 2026, and 2027 be estimated to be $3,266,437,000, $3,531,512,000, and
16 $3,567,268,000, respectively.
17 BE IT FURTHER RESOLVED, that the Legislature accept for budget purposes the preliminary unassigned fiscal year 2024 fund balance
18 of $1,028,009,187 for the general fund, prepared according to generally accepted accounting principles.
19 BE IT FURTHER RESOLVED, that the Governor's Office of Budget and Program Planning use the revenue estimates and the underlying
20 assumptions contained in this resolution as the official revenue estimates for fiscal years 2025, 2026, and 2027.
21 GENERAL FUND REVENUE 69th Legislature 2025 HJ 1.1
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1 The projections for general fund revenue for fiscal years 2025, 2026, and 2027 are based on the assumptions of the continuation of
2 Montana and federal law as it existed on January 1, 2025. The revenue estimates contained in the following tables are based on the assumptions
3 listed in the tables that follow the general fund estimates and the assumptions for each general fund revenue source (as adopted by the Revenue
4 Interim Committee) contained in the "Legislative Budget Analysis, 2027 Biennium, Volume 2 -- Revenue Estimates" prepared by the Legislative
5 Fiscal Division.
6 Current Law
7 General Fund Revenue Estimates
8 (In Millions of Dollars)
ActualEstimatedEstimatedEstimated
Source of RevenueFY 2024FY 2025FY 2026FY 2027Largest Seven SourcesIndividual Income Tax$2,243.946 $2,166.409 $2,284.365 $2,340.312 Property Tax17.222 14.938 13.334 12.605 Corporate Income Tax312.276 315.242 326.217 338.396 Vehicle Taxes & Fees124.840 125.956 127.007 128.048 Oil & Natural Gas Production Tax64.405 65.302 69.156 70.950 Insurance Tax & License Fees115.075 126.202 129.818 134.354 Video Gambling Tax83.385 84.897 86.903 89.186 Largest Seven Sources Subtotal2,961.150 2,898.948 3,036.800 3,113.850 69th Legislature 2025 HJ 1.1
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Other Business TaxesDriver's License Fee5.772 5.772 5.826 5.880 Investment License Fee21.042 21.696 22.309 22.849 Lodging Taxes44.750 46.711 48.108 50.080 Public Contractors Tax9.125 5.163 4.812 4.231 Railroad Car Tax3.645 3.920 3.931 4.054 Rental Car Sales Tax6.972 7.827 8.007 8.049 Telecommunications Excise Tax8.139 7.960 7.755 7.550 Other Business Taxes Subtotal99.444 99.050 100.748 102.693 Other Natural Resource TaxesCoal Severance Tax18.181 15.530 14.345 13.366 Electrical Energy Tax4.090 5.603 5.543 5.512 Metalliferous Mines Tax6.573 7.378 6.935 6.968 US Mineral Royalty15.655 14.832 14.133 13.446 Wholesale Energy Tax3.545 3.320 3.292 3.317 Other Natural Resource Taxes Subtotal48.044 46.665 44.249 42.609 Other Interest EarningsCoal Trust Interest19.139 19.681 19.827 20.289 Treasury Cash Account Interest--104.283 79.005 69th Legislature 2025 HJ 1.1
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Other Interest Earnings Subtotal19.139 19.681 124.111 99.294 Other Consumption TaxesBeer Tax2.971 2.980 2.851 2.709 Cigarette Tax20.919 19.658 19.231 18.188 Liquor Excise & License Tax35.443 35.016 36.185 37.974 Liquor Profits7.000 20.900 21.800 23.000 Lottery Profits19.313 20.928 20.152 20.709 Marijuana Tax31.804 32.903 34.380 35.858 Tobacco Tax5.114 5.665 5.390 5.187 Wine Tax2.504 2.558 2.575 2.582 Other Consumption Taxes Subtotal125.069 140.608 142.562 146.207 Other SourcesAll Other Revenue54.615 45.569 67.199 46.901 Highway Patrol Fines3.474 3.531 3.531 3.512 Nursing Facilities Fee3.535 3.558 3.609 3.644 Public Institution Reimbursements4.903 5.919 5.927 5.936 Tobacco Settlement2.999 2.910 2.776 2.622 Other Sources Subtotal69.527 61.487 83.043 62.615 One-Time-Only Revenue 69th Legislature 2025 HJ 1.1
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TCA Interest--47.507 22.229 Transfer from Income Tax Rebate Fund--21.246 -One-Time-Only Subtotal68.752 22.229 Total General Fund$3,322.371 $3,266.437 $3,531.512 $3,567.268
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2 SIGNIFICANT ASSUMPTIONS FOR GENERAL FUND REVENUE ESTIMATES
YearAssumption2024202520262027Largest Seven SourcesIndividual Income TaxCYWage & salary income growth6.7%4.5%4.6%4.2%CYInterest income growth16.2%4.0%7.3%8.5%CYDividend income growth4.5%10.0%1.9%0.7%CYTaxable refunds growth0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%CYAlimony received growth0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%CYNet business growth6.1%3.2%3.1%3.4%CYCapital gains income growth41.0%4.2%-25.2%-9.6%CYSupplemental gains income growth-1.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%CYRents, royalties & partnership income growth16.4%3.4%-1.0%-0.6%CYIRA income growth8.4%5.3%1.7%1.6%CYTaxable pension income growth2.5%4.3%5.4%4.5% 69th Legislature 2025 HJ 1.1
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CYTaxable social security income growth5.6%5.1%4.3%4.1%CYFarm income growth0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%CYUnemployment compensation growth0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%CYOther income growth500.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%CYFederal inflation factor5.5%2.8%2.3%2.0%CYState inflation factor5.4%2.9%2.8%2.3%CYFull year resident adjustment102.3%103.6%104.0%104.3%CYNon-resident adjustment106.1%106.1%106.1%106.1%FYEarned income tax credit (Millions)$18.397$18.816$19.043$19.062CYElderly homeowner/renter credits (Millions)$10.241$10.241$10.241$10.241CYAll other credits (Millions)$101.491$104.728$104.099$103.821FYAudit, penalty & interest collections (Millions)$79.575$83.334$83.769FYAdjustment for 3.55% Missing Filers (Millions)-$35-$36-$37
Corporate Income Tax
CYWTI price ($/bbl)$76.43$68.83$74.74$77.92CYMontana retail sales (Millions)$24,570 $25,399 $26,396 $27,386 CYMontana median home price$442,433 $451,813 $459,736 $469,825 CYWholesale employment (Thousands)19.2 19.2 19.4 19.5 CYProfessional Employment (Thousands)52.7 24.5 55.2 54.9 CYMontana GSP (Transportation) (Millions)$2,331 $2,407 $2,488 $2,555 69th Legislature 2025 HJ 1.1
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FYAudit, penalty & interest collections (Millions)$16.795$16.008$16.410FYRefunds (Millions)-$26.605-$27.920-$28.146Vehicle Taxes & FeesFYMontana new vehicle sales (Thousands)61.10860.63860.661FYUS new vehicle sales (Millions)15.99916.36716.598FYUS total vehicle stock (Millions)298.961301.874304.607Montana Population Growth0.84%0.89%0.88%0.80%Oil & Natural Gas Production TaxCYWTI price ($/bbl)$76.43 $68.83 $74.74 $77.92 CYMontana oil price ratio0.9630.9590.9610.960CYTotal oil production (Million barrels)23.72926.52028.37730.210CYHoliday oil production (Million barrels)7.0185.8463.0502.310CYHenry Hub price ($/Mcf)$2.136 $4.332 $5.000 $4.806 CYMontana natural gas price ratio0.6480.6480.6480.648CYTotal natural gas production (Million MCFs)45.59441.72840.55140.893CYHoliday natural gas production (Million MCFs)2.7122.4822.4122.432
Other Business Taxes 69th Legislature 2025 HJ 1.1
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Insurance Tax & License FeesFYMontana PCE Finance & Insurance (Millions)$4,352 $4,582 $4,633 $4,727 Driver's License FeeCYMontana population age 16 and over (Millions)0.9390.9500.9600.969Investment License FeeFYMontana PCE Finance & Insurance (Millions)$4,352$4,582$4,633$4,727Lodging TaxesFYGross State Product (Tourism) Growth6.49%3.17%2.99%4.10%Public Contractors TaxFYHighway payments (Millions)$521$384$398$407FYOther payments (Millions)$1,382$881$761$582Railroad Car TaxFYMontana retail sales (Millions)$23,448$24,201$24,263$24,952Rental Car Sales TaxFYMontana PCE Transportation (Millions)$2,455$2,654$2,707$2,720Telecommunications Excise Tax 69th Legislature 2025 HJ 1.1
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FYMontana population age 16 and over (Millions)0.9340.9450.9550.965Other Natural Resource TaxesCoal Severance TaxCYPrice ($/ton)$30.58 $27.56 $25.33 $23.48 CYProduction (Million Tons)23.46722.29421.17920.120Electrical Energy TaxFYTaxable Production (KWH)20,43720,12820,34720,304Metalliferous Mines TaxCYPrice: Copper ($/oz)$0.25 $0.25 $0.25 $0.25 CYPrice: Silver ($/oz)$28$28$28$28CYPrice: Gold ($/oz)$1,850$1,869$1,888$1,869CYPrice: Moly ($/oz)$1.27$1.12$1.24$1.27CYPrice: Palladium ($/oz)$1,100$1,212$1,156$1,184CYPrice: Platinum ($/oz)$1,011$987$1,006$989US Mineral RoyaltyFFYOil price ($/bbl)$76.43 $68.83 $74.74 $77.92 FFYOil production (Million barrels)2.7352.6822.6282.575FFYCoal price ($/ton)$77.15 $64.50 $59.54 $55.44 69th Legislature 2025 HJ 1.1
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FFYCoal production (Million Tons)10.6379.8869.3928.922FFYNatural gas price ($/MCF)$2.14 $4.33 $5.00 $4.81 FFYNatural gas production (Million MCFs)8.1297.5276.8486.322FFYRent and bonus payments (Millions)$0.395 $0.371 $0.383 $0.405 Wholesale Energy TaxFYProduction (KWH)23,49022,76322,57122,752Other Interest EarningsCoal Trust InterestFYShort term interest rates4.99%3.79%3.08%FYLong term interest rates3.81%4.01%4.22%Treasury Cash Account InterestFYShort term interest rates5.39%4.99%3.79%3.08%FYAverage balance (Millions)$3,040 $2,565 $2,448 $2,172 Other Consumption TaxesBeer TaxFYMontana PCE food (Millions)$5,971$6,184$6,454$6,777FYMontana population age 21 and above (Millions)0.8670.8770.8870.896 69th Legislature 2025 HJ 1.1
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Cigarette TaxFYConsumer spending on tobacco (Millions)$117$116$114$111FYCPI for tobacco145154163172FYMontana population age 18 and above (Millions)0.9110.9210.9310.940Liquor Excise & License TaxFYMontana PCE food (Millions)$5,971$6,184$6,454$6,777Liquor ProfitsFYMontana PCE food (Millions)$5,972$6,184$6,454$6,777FYMontana population age 18 and above (Millions)0.9110.9210.9310.940FYShort term interest rates5.10%4.89%4.14%3.13%Marijuana TaxFYMontana Population Growth0.86%0.89%0.84%0.76%FYConsumer Price Index (CPI)3.31%2.06%2.72%2.68%Tobacco TaxFYMontana population age 18 and above (Millions)0.9110.921 0.931 0.940 FYMontana PCE (Millions)$91,767 $96,007 $100,464 $105,092 Wine TaxFYMontana population age 21 and above (Millions)0.8670.8770.8870.896 69th Legislature 2025 HJ 1.1
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Other SourcesAll Other RevenueFYTime series202420252026Highway Patrol FinesFYTime series202420252026Nursing Facilities FeeFYTime series202420252026Public Institution ReimbursementsFYMontana nursing facility residents3,2203,2253,2333,241Tobacco SettlementFYVolume (Millions)134,990120,795108,09396,726FYInflation3.0%3.0%3.1%3.0%
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4 SELECTED NONGENERAL FUND REVENUE
5 The estimates for selected nongeneral fund revenue for fiscal year 2025 and the 2026-2027 biennium are based on the assumptions of a
6 continuation of Montana law as it existed on January 1, 2025. The revenue estimates contained in the following tables are based on the 69th Legislature 2025 HJ 1.1
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1 assumptions listed in the tables that follow the nongeneral fund estimates and the assumptions for each nongeneral fund revenue source
2 contained in the "Legislative Budget Analysis, 2025 Biennium, Volume 2 -- Revenue Estimates" prepared by the Legislative Fiscal Division.
3 Current Law
4 Selected Nongeneral Fund Revenue Estimates
5 (In Millions of Dollars)
ActualEstimatedEstimatedEstimatedSource of RevenueFY 2024FY 2025FY 2026FY 2027Property TaxesProperty Tax: 95 Mill$430.813 $441.624 $511.558 $516.397 Property Tax: 6 Mill29.643 29.925 34.087 34.336 Property Taxes Subtotal460.456 471.549 545.645 550.733 Natural Resource TaxesFederal Forest Receipts13.397 4.682 4.802 4.958 Resource Indemnity Tax5.198 4.425 3.562 3.132 Natural Resource Taxes Subtotal18.594 9.108 8.364 8.090 Interest EarningsCapital Land Grant Interest and Income4.343 1.649 1.507 1.446 Common School Interest and Income59.473 55.032 57.702 60.635 Conservation Districts Trust0.303 1.262 2.055 2.899 Cultural Trust Interest0.648 0.652 0.682 0.717 69th Legislature 2025 HJ 1.1
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Deaf & Blind Interest and Income0.327 0.363 0.387 0.424 Economic Development Trust6.176 6.460 6.775 7.156 Montana Coal Endowment Trust12.036 11.550 11.854 12.223 Montana Coal Endowment Regional Water Trust4.018 3.628 3.801 3.990 Parks Trust Interest1.206 1.203 1.248 1.304 Pine Hills Interest and Income0.455 0.442 0.464 0.475 Resource Indemnity Trust Interest4.096 3.811 4.011 4.221 School Facilities Trust Interest8.066 8.733 9.076 9.598 TCA Interest Earnings163.738 138.908 --Tobacco Trust Interest12.445 12.585 13.721 14.970 Interest Earnings Subtotal277.331 246.279 113.283 120.057 Consumption TaxesDiesel Tax91.432 93.908 94.980 96.675 Gasoline Tax195.654 195.796 199.208 202.815 GVW and Other Fees41.604 41.599 42.794 43.968 Consumption Taxes Subtotal328.690 331.302 336.981 343.458 Total of Selected Nongeneral Fund Sources$1,085.071 $1,058.238 $1,004.273 $1,022.338 Guarantee Fund$64.463$57.756$59.021$59.590
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1 SELECTED ASSUMPTIONS FOR NONGENERAL FUND REVENUE ESTIMATES
YearAssumption2024202520262027Property TaxProperty Tax: 95 MillFYClass 1 taxable value (Millions)$5.621$5.762$5.446FYClass 2 taxable value (Millions)$26.584$30.489$28.816FYClass 3 taxable value (Millions)$153.099$161.351$162.964FYClass 4 taxable value (Millions)$3,424.878$4,104.848$4,134.309FYClass 5 taxable value (Millions)$57.705$59.593$61.543FYClass 7 taxable value (Millions)$0.018$0.017$0.015FYClass 8 taxable value (Millions)$209.398$231.307$238.241FYClass 9 taxable value (Millions)$615.404$637.794$660.999FYClass 10 taxable value (Millions)$4.764$4.764$4.764FYClass 12 taxable value (Millions)$87.057$87.634$88.326FYClass 13 taxable value (Millions)$129.914$126.486$123.148FYClass 14 taxable value (Millions)$37.230$38.719$38.719FYClass 15 taxable value (Millions)$2.775$2.775$2.775FYClass 17 taxable value (Millions)$0.561$0.561$0.561FYTIF Value (Millions)$100.524$101.462$109.055 69th Legislature 2025 HJ 1.1
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Property Tax: 6 MillFYTaxable Value (Millions)$4.755$5.492$5.550Natural Resource TaxesFederal Forest ReceiptsFYTotal Montana Receipts (Millions)$4.682$4.802$4.958Resource Indemnity TaxFYCoal Receipts (Millions)$4.404$3.626$2.664$2.302FYOther Receipts (Millions)$0.793$0.799$0.898$0.830Interest EarningsCapital Land Grant Interest and IncomeFYLease Total (Millions)$0.866$0.779$0.765$0.784FYPermanent Fund Total (Millions)$3.270$1.831$1.736$1.698FYAdministration Costs-$1.153-$0.960-$0.994-$1.036Common School Interest and IncomeFYTFBP Long Term Interest Rate3.92%3.81%4.01%4.22%FYShort Term Interest Rate4.80%4.99%3.79%3.08%Conservation Districts Trust 69th Legislature 2025 HJ 1.1
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FYTFBP Long Term Interest Rate3.92%3.81%4.01%4.22%FYShort Term Interest Rate4.80%4.99%3.79%3.08%Cultural Trust InterestFYTFBP Long Term Interest Rate3.92%3.81%4.01%4.22%FYShort Term Interest Rate4.80%4.99%3.79%3.08%Deaf & Blind Interest and IncomeFYTFBP Long Term Interest Rate3.92%3.81%4.01%4.22%FYShort Term Interest Rate4.80%4.99%3.79%3.08%Economic Development TrustFYTFBP Long Term Interest Rate3.92%3.81%4.01%4.22%FYShort Term Interest Rate4.80%4.99%3.79%3.08%Montana Coal Endowment Regional Water Trust InterestFYTFBP Long Term Interest Rate3.92%3.81%4.01%4.22%FYShort Term Interest Rate4.80%4.99%3.79%3.08%Montana Coal Endowment Trust InterestFYTFBP Long Term Interest Rate3.92%3.81%4.01%4.22%FYShort Term Interest Rate4.80%4.99%3.79%3.08% 69th Legislature 2025 HJ 1.1
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Parks Trust InterestFYTFBP Long Term Interest Rate3.92%3.81%4.01%4.22%FYShort Term Interest Rate4.80%4.99%3.79%3.08%Pine Hills Interest and IncomeFYTFBP Long Term Interest Rate3.92%3.81%4.01%4.22%FYShort Term Interest Rate4.80%4.99%3.79%3.08%Resource Indemnity Trust InterestFYTFBP Long Term Interest Rate3.92%3.81%4.01%4.22%FYShort Term Interest Rate4.80%4.99%3.79%3.08%School Facilities Trust InterestFYTFBP Long Term Interest Rate3.92%3.81%4.01%4.22%FYShort Term Interest Rate4.80%4.99%3.79%3.08%Tobacco Trust InterestFYTFBP Long Term Interest Rate3.92%3.81%4.01%4.22%FYShort Term Interest Rate4.80%4.99%3.79%3.08%Consumption TaxesDiesel Tax 69th Legislature 2025 HJ 1.1
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FYTime Series Trend202520262027Gasoline TaxFYTime Series Trend202520262027GVW and Other FeesFYTime Series Trend202520262027
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